Is Zuora, Inc. (NYSE:ZUO) Trading At A 40% Discount?
Key Insights
The projected fair value for Zuora is US$13.58 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Current share price of US$8.08 suggests Zuora is potentially 40% undervalued
The US$11.57 analyst price target for ZUO is 15% less than our estimate of fair value
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Zuora, Inc. (NYSE:ZUO) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
View our latest analysis for Zuora
The Method
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$38.1m | US$83.2m | US$95.4m | US$104.5m | US$112.1m | US$118.6m | US$124.3m | US$129.3m | US$133.8m | US$138.0m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 9.49% | Est @ 7.33% | Est @ 5.82% | Est @ 4.76% | Est @ 4.02% | Est @ 3.50% | Est @ 3.14% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.7% | US$35.4 | US$71.7 | US$76.4 | US$77.7 | US$77.4 | US$76.1 | US$74.0 | US$71.5 | US$68.7 | US$65.8 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$695m
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.3%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.7%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$138m× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (7.7%– 2.3%) = US$2.6b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$2.6b÷ ( 1 + 7.7%)10= US$1.2b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$1.9b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$8.1, the company appears quite undervalued at a 40% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
Important Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Zuora as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.173. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Zuora
Strength
Debt is well covered by earnings.
Weakness
Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
Opportunity
Forecast to reduce losses next year.
Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows.
Good value based on P/S ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
Not expected to become profitable over the next 3 years.
Moving On:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Zuora, we've compiled three important elements you should assess:
Risks: Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Zuora you should be aware of.
Future Earnings: How does ZUO's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
