Research Reports

Logitech was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Lausanne, Switzerland. The company specializes in designing and manufacturing computer peripherals such as mice, keyboards, webcams, conference room cameras, headsets, and music-related products such as wireless speakers.

Stocks were mostly higher on Friday morning following cooler-than-expected inflation data, though they gave up some of their strong early gains. The core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.1% in August, down from a 0.2% increase in July and below the Reuters consensus forecast, which also called for a gain of 0.2%. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.7%. Crude oil traded near $91 per barrel, while gold fell $9 to $1869 per ounce.

We expect holiday sales to rise 3% this year to almost $1 trillion. With the unemployment rate below 4%, this should be another festive season despite elevated inflation, tight monetary policy, and the end of financial assistance programs enacted during the pandemic. This month, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said the back-to-school season started strong and that normally means the holiday season is going to be "good." The average annual sales gain during the past 20 holidays has been 4%, with a 5% increase last year and a high of 14% in the pandemic-recovery year of 2021. The period's only decline, of 5%, came as the economy entered a deep recession in 2008. We calculate holiday sales the same way the National Retail Federation does, based on the year-over-year change in the Commerce Department's Retail Sales data for the combined months of November and December. Like the NRF, we exclude sales at gas stations, car dealers, and restaurants -- and focus on core retail. There are three big categories that represent two-thirds of holiday sales and drive our forecast: grocery stores, General merchandise stores, and e-commerce. Our forecasts for those categories are +2%, +2.5%, and +6.6%, respectively. E-commerce is the toughest call. The category must lap 9.5% growth during the 2022 season on top of 11.3% in 2021, but online spending has remained strong, growing 7.6% year-over-year in August and 11.8% (aided by Amazon Prime Days) in July. The exclusion of restaurants boosted our tally during the pandemic because people didn't eat out, and spent more of their food budget at grocery stores. We expect that spending trend to reverse this year. For the first eight months of 2023, groceries were up 3.3% and restaurants were up 12%. Mastercard expects retail sales to grow 3.7% from November 1 through December 24, helped by 6.7% growth in e-commerce and 5.4% growth at restaurants.

At the lows this week, the S&P 500 (SPX) fell right to the bottom of its bullish channel that started in October. In addition, the index hit the lower part of its very short-term channel off its late-July highs. With the market oversold and at support, it would not be surprising to see a counter-trend rally, but we are leaning toward a failed rally and then another leg lower.

Stocks edged up on Thursday. Pending home sales fell nationwide by an average of 7.1% in August. Elevated mortgage rates, which reached a 23-year high this week, continue to keep most homeowners from relocating, thus reducing available inventory for prospective buyers. Turning to stocks, shares of Peloton Interactive (PTON) popped today on the announcement of a five-year partnership with Lululemon Athletica (LULU). Jabil Inc. (JBL) soared 19% after the contract manufacturer exceeded consensus non-GAAP EPS expectations for fiscal 4Q23 and provided above-consensus EPS guidance for fiscal 1Q24. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 0.8%. Crude oil fell 1% to $91.80 per barrel, while gold traded fell to $1883 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks edged higher on Thursday morning as investors awaited new inflation data on Friday and a likely U.S. government shutdown on Sunday. GDP data continued to show solid growth. The Commerce Department, in its third estimate, said that the U.S. economy expanded at a 2.1% annualized rate in the second quarter, unchanged from its prior estimate. Meanwhile, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 2,000 to 204,000 for the week ended September 23, below the Reuters consensus forecast of 215,000. In earnings news, Micron shares fell 4%, despite above-consensus fiscal 4Q results, after the chipmaker projected a wider-than-expected loss in the current quarter. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.2%. Crude oil fell 1% to $92.50 per barrel, while gold traded near $1885 per ounce.

The Commerce Department will update its forecast for 2Q23 GDP this morning. Last month, in its second estimate, the government indicated that 2Q GDP rose at an annualized 2.1% pace, up slightly from the 2.0% growth rate in 1Q23. We think that rate will hold steady, though we note that any surprise is likely to occur on the upside. As is typically the case, the report will indicate areas of strength and weakness in the economy. On the positive side, the consumer appears to be in good shape, with Personal Consumption Expenditures expanding at a 1%-2% pace, driven by spending on Services. Companies continue to invest in R&D projects and software, as Investments into Intellectual Property are advancing at a rate that is faster than overall GDP growth. Government spending has picked up as well during the past year. On the downside, Residential Investment has weakened as interest rates have risen, though the sector seems to be bottoming; and Exports of Goods have been challenged by the strong dollar. The GDP report also includes an inflation measure, the PCE Price Index. This index, excluding food and energy, is rising at a 3.7% pace, well ahead the Federal Reserve's inflation target of 2.0%. We don't expect the results of this report to move the markets much, as the data is already almost three months old. The first report on 3Q23 GDP will come out later in October. The current reading of the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow indicator is 4.9%. The current Argus forecast, last published in our Viewpoint report, is not quite as aggressive at 4.0%, but still likely reflects the high-water-mark for GDP growth in 2023.

Wednesday looked like it was going to be another ugly day for equites. At their lows, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) were all down 0.8%. But the market popped in the last two hours, erasing all the losses. The stock market has been heavy of late due to the spike in interest rates, the surge in crude oil prices, a consistently rising dollar, the possibility of a government shutdown on October 1, the UAW strike, and the resumption of student-loan repayments.

AI & EV: The Other Edge of the Sword

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.