Year-to-date, the dollar has drifted 6% from cycle highs, falling in part as the outlook for further Federal Reserve rate hikes has cooled. The greenback spiked early in the pandemic, when global investors flocked to the security of assets denominated in U.S. currency. After peaking in April 2020, the greenback declined into 2021 -- but then rose again for much of 2022, driven by uncertainty surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine, soaring inflation, and higher global interest rates. By October, on a real trade-weighted basis, the dollar was 23% above the average valuation over the past 20 years. But inflation in the U.S. has consistently trended lower since peaking last summer, and the Fed is now winding down its rate-hike campaign. Meantime, Middle East sovereign wealth funds have become less risk-averse and have been investing their windfall petro-dollars in other markets, such as China, India, and South-East Asia. We anticipate a trading range around current levels for the greenback for the balance of the year. That's because we think U.S. GDP growth may be uneven due to the Fed's rate hikes. In addition, we expect the higher rates to increase