This morning's release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will be the third, and final, update of 4Q GDP. The update last month indicated 4Q real GDP rose at an annualized 3.2% pace, down from 4.9% growth in 3Q23. The 4Q performance is solid, with contributions from consumer spending, private investment, exports, and government spending. We don't expect a major revision to GDP this morning. Between 1996 and 2022, the average absolute revision to the quarterly percentage change in real GDP was just 30 basis points, according to the BEA. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) on durable goods increased 3.2%, despite a decline in motor vehicles and parts. Gross private domestic investment in structures rose 7.5% after an 11.2% increase in 3Q and a 16.1% increase in 2Q. A report from the U.S. Treasury Department attributed the recent surge in construction to spending on manufacturing facilities for computers, electronics, and electrical products (bolstered by the CHIPS Act), adding that these categories have become a dominant component of manufacturing construction after a few decades of relatively small share. On April 25, the BEA will release its advance estimate for 1Q GDP. We expect 1Q24 growth to slow to 2.3%. The March 26 GDPNow forecast for 1Q24 from the Atlanta Fed is 2.1%, with an estimate for 1.9% growth in PCE. Residential fixed investment