Stocks were mostly higher on Friday morning following more bank earnings reports and new housing market data. Morgan Stanley posted strong 1Q earnings that topped consensus expectations, despite a nearly $1 billion loss from the collapse of Archegos Capital. Bank of New York Mellon also reported above-consensus results, though both EPS and revenue declined from the prior year. On the housing front, the Commerce Department said that U.S. housing starts jumped 19.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.739 million units in March, above the Reuters consensus forecast of 1.613 million. In China, the National Statistics Bureau reported first-quarter GDP growth of 18.3% from a depressed 1Q20; however, on a quarter-over-quarter basis, growth slowed to 0.6% from 3.2% in 4Q20. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq was flat. Crude oil traded near $63 per barrel, while gold rose $11 to $1778 per ounce.

Stocks rallied on Thursday following better-than-expected retail sales and employment data, along with earnings from Bank of America and BlackRock. The Commerce Department said that U.S. retail sales rose a strong 9.8% in March, helped by government stimulus checks and supplemental weekly unemployment benefits. The reading was above the consensus of 5.9% growth and up from a 2.7% decline in February. First-time jobless claims fell to 576,000, a post-pandemic low and well below the consensus forecast of 700,000. Continuing claims rose to 3.731 million, up slightly from 3.727 million a week earlier and above the consensus of 3.7 million. The Dow rose 0.90%, the S&P 1.11%, and the Nasdaq 1.31%. Crude oil traded near $63 per barrel, while gold rose $29 to $1765 per ounce.

Stocks rose on Thursday morning, led by the Technology and Healthcare sectors, as investors weighed more 1Q earnings reports and weekly employment data. The Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell sharply to 576,000 for the week ended April 10, down from 769,000 a week earlier and below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 700,000. Bond yields retreated, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury falling below 1.6%. The Dow rose 0.8%, the S&P 0.8%, and the Nasdaq 1.0%. Crude oil fell slightly to $63 per barrel, while gold traded near $1767 per ounce.

etting Ready for Higher Prices?

Stocks were mixed on Wednesday morning following the first 1Q earnings reports from major banks. JPMorgan Chase posted solid earnings as strong capital markets activity, along with reserve releases, more than offset weakness in its lending business. Wells Fargo also reported much stronger-than-expected results with help from reserve releases. The Dow rose 0.6%, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.2%. Crude oil traded near $63 per barrel, while gold fell $11 to $1736 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The big banks are typically the first to report earnings, and those announcements are about to begin. The accelerating trend in vaccines, successful passage of the Biden administration's $1.9 trillion stimulus package, and optimism on infrastructure investment are all pushing consensus earnings expectations higher. Although the pandemic appears to be easing, the economy has undergone fundamental changes that appear to be permanent. Work and education have shifted to a hybrid model, and we anticipate continued accelerated investment in digitization. The year 2021 should also feature a reversal in 2020's "deadweight" sectors, such as Industrials and Energy, which were subtractive to overall prior-year earnings. Based on our multi-input model, we recently increased our estimate of S&P 500 earnings from continuing operations for 2021 to $176 from $171. Our revised 2021 EPS model assumes 28% growth from our static 2020 estimate; we had previously modeled 24% growth. Off the higher 2021 base, and on the assumption that positive economic momentum can be carried forward, we raised our estimate of S&P 500 earnings from continuing operations for 2022 to $201 from $195. Our revised 2022 EPS model assumes 14% growth from our 2021 estimate, in line with earlier expectations.

This edition features our outlook for the repair and remodeling market; the banking industry; Amazon's path ahead; and notes from Lumen, Canopy, and new coverage MongoDB.

March was an interesting month, to say the least. Some indices got slammed in the beginning of the month, rebounded until mid-month, headed lower again until about March 25, and then rebounded to close the month. Sector leadership was tilted toward defensive stocks, and even though some higher-beta sectors barely rose, the indices either eked out small gains or actually had a nice month. But it certainly didn't feel like it!

This edition features optimism for Arkema; Seven & I's food-service strategy; the Fed's next moves for interest rates; and notes from Bank of America, FedEx, and American Express.

The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate at a rock-bottom 0.00-0.25% at its latest Open Market Committee meeting. The action (or non-action) had been expected, given the current high level of unemployment, but traders have recently been worried about the potential for inflation as the U.S. vaccine program progresses and the economy reopens. The vote was unanimous, and the majority of the central bankers are forecasting no changes in rates through at least 2023. The Fed also is maintaining its $120 billion/month asset-purchasing program in an attempt to keep long-term rates under control and markets functioning. In comments after the meeting, Fed Chairman Powell noted that the country has avoided the worst potential outcomes from the pandemic, in part due to a combination of fiscal and monetary policy. He added that jobs growth has picked up, and the Fed is now forecasting GDP growth of 6.5% for the year. But segments of the economy (leisure and hospitality, for example) remain under pressure, and "no one should be complacent" according to Chairman Powell. Our forecasts call for the yield curve to steepen slightly into 2022 as long-term rates drift higher toward 2.0%, which is still a historically low level.

The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles, to a large degree - have moved overseas, where costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy, prior to the pandemic, had expanded to record levels. And now, the U.S. Healthcare industry is mobilizing to improve COVID-19 testing, treatments and vaccines. Consider that U.S. GDP was approximately $1 trillion in 1930 but nearly $22 trillion at the end of 2019. That's growth of 22-times. Meanwhile, the U.S. population has grown less than 3-times during that time span, to 320 million from 120 million. The delta between GDP growth and population growth has been driven in large part by innovation. In addition, the value of listed corporations on U.S. stock exchanges at the end of 2020 was approximately $32 trillion, representing 41% of global equity market capitalization, while U.S. GDP represented only 25% of global GDP. The current low level of interest rates (the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond yield is 1.1%) and the relatively high level of the dollar both attest to the confidence that global investors have in the innovative U.S. economy.

Thursday was another rough day for stocks, but some afternoon price strength cut the losses quite a bit. At the session low, the S&P 500 was off 97 points or 2.5%. But the index finished with a 1.3% loss. The Nasdaq finished down 2%, having been off 3.4% intraday. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) closed off 1.7%, but at the low was down 2.9%. Our primary concern remains the growth indices, as they have completed small topping formations. The Nasdaq and QQQs are very close to breaking their key 21-week exponential moving averages, which could suggest more damage.