Often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market is dividend income, which is an important element of total return. Between 1930 and 2012, dividend income accounted for 42% of total return of the S&P 500, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for 15%-20% of returns. Still, in 2018, dividend payments softened the blow when most market indices declined as the Federal Reserve hiked rates. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks.

April 2021 lived up to its billing as the best stock month of the first half. During April, the S&P 500 appreciated 5.2%, better than any month so far this year; March was closest with a 4.2% gain. Through the end of the fourth month, the S&P 500 is up 11.3% year-to-date.

Our rating on the Industrial sector is Over-Weight. After enduring the challenges of the pandemic, the cyclical stocks in the sector appear well positioned within the changing political environment. Specifically, we believe that Industrial stocks will benefit from enhanced infrastructure investment and more-lenient trade policies during the Biden administration. The Industrial sector accounts for 8.9% of S&P 500 market capitalization. Over the past five years, the weighting has ranged from 7% to 12%. We think that investors should allocate 9%-10% of their diversified portfolios to the group. The sector includes industries such as transportation, aerospace & defense, heavy machinery and electrical equipment. The sector is outperforming the market thus far in 2021. It underperformed in 2020, with a gain of 9.0%, and slightly underperformed in 2019, with a gain of 26.8%. Here are some of our top Industrial picks, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

Recent economic data illustrates that conditions are improving, though serious risks remain. The primary driver of GDP over the next few quarters is likely to be the country's physical health, as the nation battles COVID-19. Right now, vaccines are on the way. The employment environment is in better shape than it was nine months ago, though still far from a position of strength (as it had been prior to the pandemic), and consumer confidence is improving. We expect that rising confidence will lead to continued growth in consumer spending. Auto sales have recovered, and the housing market remains strong, even as interest rates tick higher. Businesses are again expanding. Rolling all the data up, our GDP model now calls for a 1.6% increase in absolute GDP in 1Q21 from 4Q20, which translates to an annualized gain of 6.0%. We expect further absolute improvement into 2021. On an annual basis, we look for overall GDP growth of approximately 4.4% in 2021 and 3.6% in 2022. Our estimates are consistent with consensus forecasts and the outlook from the Federal Reserve, which calls for growth of 4%-6% in 2021.