While stocks have fallen since the start of 2022, current insider sentiment remains reassuringly benign. Indeed, the overall Insider Index from Vickers Stock Research is resting at its most-attractive level since November 2020. As expected now that earnings season is in full swing, insider trading volume has dropped from recent robust levels, with only 856 insider transactions meeting the criteria this week for inclusion in Vickers' Weekly Insider Report.

Since the current bull market began on March 21, the S&P 500 has risen almost 110%. How does that compare to other bull markets? We have studied the 12 bull markets that occurred since the end of World War II. On average, the S&P 500 has gained 163% during these 12 periods, which have averaged 57 months in duration. Our current bull market has thus achieved two-thirds of the average gain in about 40% of the average time. (Perhaps this is due to computer-trading programs or the growth of passive investment vehicles such as ETFs.) We note that the recent bull markets have generated higher returns over a longer time. On average, the five bull markets since 1980 have seen stocks advance 240% over a period of 70 months. And the longest bull market prior to the pandemic carried on for 11 years, during which stocks rose 500%. It is worth pointing out, though, that the 2009-2020 bull market began with stocks deeply depressed on valuation, whereas stocks in the current bull market are already above fair value. Our message remains the same: focus on quality companies generating improving EPS.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Of the four years in a presidential term, the second year (the mid-term election year) has been one the worst for investors. Since 1980, returns in the second year of a presidential term have averaged 5.6%, compared to average returns of 14.4% and 15.8%, respectively, in years 1 and 3. Why? The likely reason is uncertainty. Investors favor continuity, and a mid-term election offers a real opportunity for a change in direction, whether its fiscal policy, antitrust philosophy, or a certain regulatory focus. We note that incumbent parties typically lose seats in mid-term elections, and even the loss of a few Democratic seats in either the Senate or the House could tip the chamber to the Republicans. Currently, President Biden's approval rating is low. According to the latest CNN/SSRS poll, President Biden has a net negative approval rating of -9 points on the economy, which is lower than the -4 point ratings for both President Obama and President Trump. The odds for a Republican-controlled House are currently 5-1. But a lot can happen over the next 12 months.