Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID stocks) have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but still may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be less disrupted by the fallout from unrest in the Middle East, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, issues with China, or other geopolitical developments. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps, with the P/E ratio on the Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index of 13 compared to a trailing P/E of 25 for the S&P 500. Finally, there are long stretches in the record books when SMID stocks have outperformed large-caps. From 2003-2021, the Russell 2000 Index had climbed 450%, compared to an advance of 330% for the S&P 500 index. That said, SMID stocks can be risky. The standard deviation for monthly returns was 5.7% for SMID stocks over our 2003-2021 test period, versus 4.3% for large-caps. SMID stocks fell further in negative years during our test period, with an average 15% drop versus a 12% pullback for large-caps. Still, despite the risks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 15%-20% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of small- and mid-cap stocks. That's generally the allocation we target for our ETF Model Portfolios.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID) have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be less disrupted by the fallout from global events. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. As well, there are long stretches in the record books when SMID stocks have outperformed large-caps. That said, SMID stocks can be risky. The standard deviation for monthly returns was 5.7% for SMID stocks over a 2003-2021 test period, versus 4.3% for large-caps. Still, despite the risks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record.

We don't want to get too excited about the Russell 2000 (IWM $208), but the index is pushing up against key chart resistance once again. IWM is poking its head above prior highs seen in 12/2023, 3/2022, and the January 2022 breakdown level near $207. Since that breakdown over two years ago, IWM has traded in a volatile range, with the bottom down at $160.

The S&P 500 (SPX) and S&P 100 (OEX) closed at minor all-time highs (ATHs) on Tuesday, while the rest of the major indices were near that mark as the relentless push higher continues. The leadership over the past month has shifted from AI and Technology to cyclical sectors -- which is what happens in a strong bull market. Rotation is really starting to gain some footing in 2024 and is critical to a long and enduring uptrend. We have seen addditional cyclical sectors join the party over the past month, as Energy (XLE +8.6%), Materials (XLB +6.8%), and Industrials (XLI +4.5%) have taken some of the load off the Technology gains.

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning as investors await results from the Federal Reserve policy meeting. On the housing front, in February, housing starts rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.52 million. This up from the revised 1.37 million in January and above expectations of 1.43 million. Building permits issued were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.52 million, up from January's revised 1.49 million. The Dow rose 0.6%, the S&P 500 was nearly flat and the Nasdaq lost 0.3%. Crude oil traded above $83 per barrel, while gold fell $7 to $2157 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

March 4, 2024 Monday Tee Up: Jobs, Powell, COST

Stocks were mixed on Thursday after core PCE came in as expected. Prices rose 0.3% in January, bringing annual inflation to 2.4% -- down from 2.6% last month. Core PCE rose 0.4%, which brings the annual rate to 2.8%, down from 2.9% last month. Prices for services increased 0.6%, while goods prices decreased 0.2% and energy prices fell 1.4% from December. Initial jobless claims rose by 13,000 to 215,000 for the week ended February 24. The S&P 500 was up 0.1%, the Dow fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq gained 0.3%. Crude oil traded near $79 per barrel and gold was up $11 to $2053 per ounce.

The stock market has been on hold this week, as investors await the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE). The report tends to show inflation trends that are less affected by short-term price changes. Stocks threw a bit of a tantrum when the January CPI and PPI were released a few weeks ago, but the market has since shaken off these single data points. There are at least four Fed governor/president speeches as well today -- and more on Friday.

Confounding the Experts

Stocks were modestly lower on Wednesday morning after revised GDP data. The second estimate of U.S. GDP was revised down to 3.2% from the advance estimate of 3.3%. The update reflects upward revisions in state and local government spending and consumer spending, which were more than offset by a reduction in private inventory investment. The S&P 500 was down less than 0.1%, the Dow fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq lost 0.3%. Crude oil traded just above $78 per barrel and gold was down $2 to $2042 per ounce.

Apparently, what goes up can keep going up! Thursday was a monumental day for AI, the Technology sector, Nvidia, and the entire semiconductor space. NVDA's blowout quarter, again, sent the shares further into space, rising 111 points or 16.4% to another all-time high of $785. At the beginning of 2024, the stock was under $500, and in October 2022, it was trading down near $100. NVDA lifted the Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) by 3% and the S&P 500 by 2.1%. It was the largest daily gain for the NDX and Nasdaq since February 2023 and the largest for the SPX since January 2023.

Weekly Tee Up: Walmart and Nvidia

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks were higher on Thursday, with investors apparently moving beyond the panic that set in - for one day - earlier in the week after a hot CPI report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.91%, the Nasdaq 0.30% and the S&P 500 0.58% (and at a record closing high). Early in Thursday's session, worries kicked in after the U.S. Commerce Department reported that retail sales dropped 0.8% last month, the biggest decrease since last February. But that bad news also was quickly discounted as recent winter storms were cited as one-time events that likely negatively impacted the data.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday intraday as investors digested new economic data. U.S. retail & food services sales fell 0.8% in January from December, but were up 0.6% from a year ago. That was below estimates for a 0.2% decline in sales. Excluding automobiles, sales were down 0.6%, and excluding gas, down 0.8%. Initial jobless claims for the week were 212,000, down from the previous week's revised 220,000. Ongoing unemployment increased 30,000 to 1,895,000, which pushed the insured unemployment rate up to 1.3%. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 500 was up 0.02%, while the Nasdaq lost 0.2%. Crude oil traded just above $78 per barrel and gold was up $6 to $2010 per ounce.