We have talked about the weekly winning streaks of the major indices. As of Friday, most were 17 for 21 -- or winners 81% of the time. During that same time, the S&P 500 (SPX) jumped 27% and the Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 popped 30%. In sports, going 17/21 is about as good as it gets (although field goal kickers are sometimes better). One might expect a pullback (certainly possible), a correction, or something more dramatic after a run like this. But history is on the side of the bulls.

As stocks keep trending higher, insiders continue to exercise restraint. While their defensive posture has stabilized (and indeed lessened a tad) over the past few weeks, it seems that corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners view overall stock valuations as likely extended. That attitude appears to be mirrored in the broader market. Investors are clearly willing to push share prices higher, but the selling days (when they do occur) tend to involve noticeable drops -- suggesting a readiness to withdraw quickly if (if) any bad news has legs. So far, though, that just hasn't been the case, with big down days turning out to be one-day wonders.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID) have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be less disrupted by the fallout from global events. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. As well, there are long stretches in the record books when SMID stocks have outperformed large-caps. That said, SMID stocks can be risky. The standard deviation for monthly returns was 5.7% for SMID stocks over a 2003-2021 test period, versus 4.3% for large-caps. Still, despite the risks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record.

Stocks rallied on Thursday, extending yesterday's gains on rate-cut optimism. Turning to stocks, shares of Apple (AAPL) are down after the U.S. Department of Justice filed a lawsuit accusing the company of engineering a monopoly in the smartphone market. Bank stocks are up today as investors are optimistic that the anticipated rate cuts this year will drive more transactions. The S&P 500 is up 0.3%, the Dow is up 0.7%, the Nasdaq is up 0.2%, and the Russell 2000 is up 1.16%.

The FOMC maintained the target range for the fed funds rate at 5.25 to 5.50%. The FOMC does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%. The FOMC will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency MBS, but said that the central bank will begin to slow its balance sheet runoff soon. Recent indicators suggest that the economy has been expanding solidly. Job gains have remained strong and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.

After the heavy-volume, bearish reversal on March 8 for the Nasdaq, Nasdasq 100 (QQQ), semiconductors, and most of the Technology sector, we had some downside follow-through for the first time since this monster rally started in October 2023. The QQQs and the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) have lost their 21-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) by a minor amount. Still, for more than four months, the 21-day EMA has been quickly recaptured whenever this happened.

We see what we believe are some great opportunities right now in Healthcare -- and we like the sector overall. Argus Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, recently completed his quarterly sector review and raised Healthcare sector to Over-Weight from Market-Weight. The healthcare environment is undergoing rapid transitions, and we now see an unfolding period of significant promise and opportunity. Our newly-favored stance is based on resumption of deferred medical procedures and significant new quality-of-life drugs and treatments. The category is broad and has underperformed the S&P 500 over the past year. The Healthcare sector ETF (XLV) is up 15% over the past year compared to a gain of 31% for the S&P 500. We see opportunity here to pick up some steady companies, with big brands and solid financials. These companies are science-focused and enhance lives. They are innovators. In our list this week, we look across several subsectors within the Healthcare sector and pull out some leaders we like. These stocks also are included in our Focus List and Model Portfolios, as noted below.

After the heavy-volume, bearish reversal on March 8 for the Nasdaq, Nasdasq 100 (QQQ), semiconductors, and most of the Technology sector, we had some downside follow-through for the first time since this monster rally started in October 2023. The QQQs and the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) have lost their 21-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) by a minor amount. Still, for more than four months, the 21-day EMA has been quickly recaptured whenever this happened.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks fell on Thursday on hotter-than-expected inflation readings. In February, headline PPI rose 0.6%, up from 0.2% in January and ahead of the expected 0.3% increase -- with nearly two-thirds of the increase attributed to a rise in prices for final-demand goods. A 4.4% rise in energy prices during the month was the main factor in the increase in final-demand goods, contributing over one-third of the increase. PPI rose 0.4% in February, down from 0.6% last month but ahead of the expected 0.2% increase. U.S. retail sales in February were up 0.6%, following the 0.8% decline in January. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P 500 was down 0.3%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.1%. Crude oil traded above $81 per barrel, while gold fell $18 to $2162 per ounce.

We are raising our long-term technical outlook to Bullish and most likely will raise the intermediate-term outlook to bullish if we ever get a pullback. With the benefit of hindsight, both timeframes should have been changed to bullish either in the middle of 2023 or late 2023. Yet for the most part, the daily commentary in parts of 2023 and 2024 conveyed bull-market action in market breadth, as well as breadth and price thrusts typically seen in early bull markets. Things got tricky in October 2023, when the S&P 500 broke many key averages as well as its bull-market trendline off the October 2022 lows. In addition, market breadth fell back to bear-market territory. At the same time, the entire yield curve was in a strong uptrend, hitting and exceeding 5%.