The trading week that ended March 22 featured (yet again) all-time highs, with the weekly winning streak for the S&P 500 (SPX) continuing. The SPX has moved higher in 17 out of 21 weeks, with a 27% gain during that period. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and the Nasdaq are also 17 out of 21, soaring 30%. The S&P 400 prints the same story, with a 29% pop. Index price volatility is almost undetectable, although there has been some decent volatility, both up and down, among individual stocks. We saw one day of strong breadth on Wednesday of that week and one weak day on Friday.

In this edition, mining and mining commodities; what's ahead for auto dealers; and an analyst transfer for Arkema; and JD Logistics, Papa John's, and General Mills.

U.S. markets were mixed on Friday morning, but are still on track for gains for the week. On the earnings front, FedEx (FDX) rose 7% on an earnings beat, while Nike (NKE) was down about 7% on a weak outlook. The Dow was down 0.5%, the S&P 500 fell 0.1% and the Nasdaq gained less than 0.1%. Crude oil traded above $80 per barrel, while gold fell $16 to $2169 per ounce.

We see what we believe are some great opportunities right now in Healthcare -- and we like the sector overall. Argus Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, recently completed his quarterly sector review and raised Healthcare sector to Over-Weight from Market-Weight. The healthcare environment is undergoing rapid transitions, and we now see an unfolding period of significant promise and opportunity. Our newly-favored stance is based on resumption of deferred medical procedures and significant new quality-of-life drugs and treatments. The category is broad and has underperformed the S&P 500 over the past year. The Healthcare sector ETF (XLV) is up 15% over the past year compared to a gain of 31% for the S&P 500. We see opportunity here to pick up some steady companies, with big brands and solid financials. These companies are science-focused and enhance lives. They are innovators. In our list this week, we look across several subsectors within the Healthcare sector and pull out some leaders we like. These stocks also are included in our Focus List and Model Portfolios, as noted below.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Our analysis of recent data leads us to conclude that the U.S. economy is healthy and consumers are still leading the way. Based on the second update to 4Q GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) contributed 2.0 points of the 3.2% increase in GDP, which was revised down from 3.3% in the first estimate. Within PCE, the huge services category was a standout, contributing 1.28 points to GDP. PCE represented 69%, or $15.6 trillion of the fourth quarter's $22.7 trillion GDP. Services represented $10.1 trillion or 45% of total GDP. Our 2024 GDP forecast is for 2.0% growth. We expect 1Q to be up 2.3%. We expect 2Q to be the weakest of 2024, with 1.3% growth ramping to 1.8% in 3Q and 2.3% in 4Q. In February, economists in the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters expected GDP to rise 2.4% in 2024, with 1Q up 2.1%, 2Q and 3Q each up 1.5%, and 4Q up 1.7%. On March 1, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimated 1Q24 growth of 2.1%. Our 2024 forecast assumes inflation continues to fall and the Fed has completed its rate-hike campaign, with monetary easing likely to begin in the middle of the year. In recent data, we have seen that January's job market was much stronger than we expected, while post-holiday retail sales were weaker than we anticipated. Walmart said, in its 4Q earnings call, that its customers are resilient but looking for value. WMT is seeing less inflation and hopefully setting a trend of passing the savings on to customers. WMT has reduced the prices of key items. While economic growth may be uneven in 2024 and into 2025, we believe the Fed has the ability to bolster growth if it falters badly. Our early forecast is for GDP to grow 2.0% in 2025. We expect the Fed will be close to meeting its dual mandate, with inflation near 2% and unemployment at approximately 4.1%.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning as investors digested new economic data. New orders for durable goods fell 6.1% in January, according to today's U.S. Census Bureau data, with a 16.2% drop in transportation equipment orders leading the decline. Excluding defense, orders fell 7.3% and excluding transportation new orders slipped 0.3%. The Confidence Board said that its consumer confidence index fell to 106.7, which was lower than the downwardly revised 110.9 in January. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index reported a 5.5% annual gain in December, up from a 5.0% rise in the previous month. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city house price index rose 0.2% in December compared to the previous month. Home prices in the 20 major U.S. metro markets were up 6.1%. The S&P 500 was down less than 0.1%, the Dow fell 0.4% and the Nasdaq was up 0.1%. Crude oil traded above $78 per barrel and gold was up $5 to $2044 per ounce.

Bumps in the Soft Landing

Stocks are trading lower on Wednesday morning ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve minutes. Turning to stocks, shares of Nvidia (NVDA) are down today, with the company reporting earnings today after market close. The S&P 500 fell 0.1%, the Dow was down $0.2% and the Nasdaq lost 0.5%. Crude oil traded near $77.50 per barrel, while gold fell nearly $4 to $2036 per ounce.