Sentiment, Business Activity Remain Elevated in the New Year

Stocks were largely flat on Wednesday morning following earnings reports from Alphabet and Amazon and new employment data. Payroll provider ADP said that U.S. private employers added 174,000 jobs in January, well above the Reuters consensus forecast of 49,000 and up from a loss of 78,000 in December. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P was flat, and the Nasdaq rose 0.1%. Crude oil traded near $56 per barrel, while gold rose $3 to $1836 per ounce.

Stocks sold off last week, due in part to frenzied trading in certain corners of the market, along with FOMC commentary that highlighted a slowing recovery. The general public took special note of this week's equity market drama, with Google search interest for 'stock market' at its highest levels since March 2020. Blue-chips fared slightly better than tech stocks during the slide. On Friday, The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 621 points, or 2.03%. The S&P 500 was down 1.93% and the Nasdaq Composite was down 2.00%. For the week, the DJIA fell 3.27%, the S&P 500 dropped 3.31%, and the Nasdaq Composite sunk 3.49%.

The onset of the coronavirus earlier this year knocked the stock market into a bear market. Though stocks have recovered, the U.S. economy is still in recession and COVID-19 cases are spiking as the weather turns colder and people head indoors. Volatility, which was low in early 2020 after a robust year for equities in 2019, has spiked higher, and has remained elevated. Is it time to cash in the chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes such as fixed income and cash. As well, those returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was not sub-1.0%. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point returns history, indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods. Stocks included in our Min Vol model portfolio and typically industry leaders and have received a high score from our A6 Quant Model on Financial Strength and a low score on Risk. Stocks in the portfolio include the following.

Maybe you intend to catch-up on certain things over the holidays. That's what defensive sectors appear to be doing in the fourth quarter. At the nine-month mark, income-oriented, defensive, and/or cyclical sectors were deeply lagging -- and they won't catch the leaders in 2020. But in the past two months, formerly unloved sectors have meaningfully closed the gap.

The Labor Department's nonfarm payrolls report for November 2020 will be released on December 4. The news has been good the last few months, as approximately 12 million jobs were created from May through October, and initial unemployment claims have declined from an average of 5 million per week in April to 800,000 per week in October. But the recovery is not complete, as the gains have not made up for the losses in March and April, when the economy shed a total of 22.2 million jobs. Unemployment claims ticked higher last week to 778,000, and continuing claims are above 6.5 million. That's out of a total workforce of 160 million. Continuing claims have been declining since peaking in April, but jobs growth has slowed since July, as numerous states are again tightening restrictions with COVID-19 cases surging. Our forecast for nonfarm payrolls growth for November is 625,000. That's a decline from the October level but would still contribute to reducing the unemployment rate, assuming the labor force participation rate remains steady.

Final Thoughts on Market Tendencies around the Election

Worrisome Signs on the Pandemic and the Economy

Dividends are supposed to lend stability to a portfolio. However, U.S.-based equity income investors have experienced a high degree of volatility in recent years. In our view, investing in international income stocks is one way to increase portfolio diversification while reducing sensitivity to volatile U.S interest rates. Investing in overseas stocks carries its own set of risks, including the impact of currency exchange and geopolitical turmoil. But there are also a number of positives in this segment for U.S. investors. One is a more robust selection of high-quality names. Yields also tend to be higher in overseas markets in general. And finally, valuations can be more attractive.