The 1Q21 EPS season is mostly in the books, with retailers the last group to report over the next two weeks. The results were impressive -- but came against an easy comparison with last year's 1Q, when the world started to shut down to fight COVID-19. Through early May, Refinitiv reported that S&P 500 earnings rose 50.4% year over year -- the best quarter since 1Q2010. Some 87% of companies have come in ahead of expectations, up from the prior four-quarter average of 76%, according to Refinitiv. Where is the growth? Consumer Discretionary remains atop the list with a 170% earnings increase. Financials is second at 130%. Only Industrials is expected to remain negative -- with a 2% decline. Even the Energy sector, expected to have an earnings decrease at the start of the quarter, is now poised for 8% growth. Our analysts are always on the lookout for companies that raise their outlooks during earnings season. Management's ability to "raise guidance" can often be a catalyst for strong returns in the quarters ahead. Here are 20 BUY-rated companies in Argus coverage at which management has raised guidance or increased its outlook during the 1Q21 EPS reporting season.

April 2021 lived up to its billing as the best stock month of the first half. During April, the S&P 500 appreciated 5.2%, better than any month so far this year; March was closest with a 4.2% gain. Through the end of the fourth month, the S&P 500 is up 11.3% year-to-date.

Yields on Treasury bond have been rising in recent months becasue of expectations for a rebound in the economy this year (driven in part by extensive deficit spending). Corporate bond yields have risen as well, but not as rapidly, as investors are now more optimistic about the potential for lower default rates. As such, spreads between corporate and Treasury bond yields have narrowed. The spread between AAA-rated corporate bonds and 10-year government bonds in March was 143 basis points (bps), above the 35-year average of 124 bps but down 20 bps from September. The gap between the government 10-year bond yield and a BAA-rated bond (still investment grade) in March was 213 basis points, below the historical average spread of 223 bps and down more than 50 basis points from September. From a risk-management standpoint, we watch these spreads closely to gauge the bond market's view of corporate financial strength, which appears to be improving given the narrowing spreads. From an investment standpoint, we think that corporate bonds generally are in line with fair value. On duration, we recommend the intermediate term.

President Joe Biden is preparing to announce an infrastructure-rebuilding plan that he estimates will create up to 10 million clean energy jobs. The following areas of the economy stand to benefit from the government spending, which could total as much as $4 trillion. The first element of the plan is improving the country's infrastructure, from roads and bridges to water systems and electricity grids.

When the investing environment is potentially undergoing a major trend change, investors find themselves deciding if good news is good or bad, and if bad news is bad or good. The current major trend change encompassing the investing environment is the rise in interest rates; and the good news/bad news event was the February nonfarm payrolls report.

Stocks gave up early gains on Friday morning as Treasury yields continued to rise in the wake of a much stronger-than-expected February employment report. The Labor Department said that the U.S. added 379,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in February, up from a revised 166,000 in January and well above the Reuters consensus forecast of 182,000. The official unemployment rate also fell slightly to 6.2% from 6.3% in January. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P fell 0.2%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.5%. Crude oil traded near $66 per barrel, while gold fell $5 to $1696 per ounce.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional ownership trends. Form 13-Fs are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and are now coming in from 4Q20. We review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings, among others. Activist investing has evolved and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, according to Vickers.

We have highlighted (repeatedly) the current strong market breadth, even suggesting it might be too strong and in need of a reset. We've also talked about extremely overheated market sentiment, also in need of a nice reset as we see it.