In this edition, mining and mining commodities; what's ahead for auto dealers; and an analyst transfer for Arkema; and JD Logistics, Papa John's, and General Mills.

U.S. markets rose on Thursday morning, extending yesterday's gains, following the Fed's rate decision and commentary by Chairman Powell. Leading into the meeting, investors were focused on the dot plot, which in December forecast three rate cuts this year. Yesterday's chart also included an estimated three rate cuts. Dovish commentary by Fed Chair Powell, who indicated that current rates were likely at their peak for the current cycle, resonated with investors. Almost 70% of investors are now looking for the first rate cut in June. On the employment front, initial jobless claims were 210,000 for the week, down 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. Ongoing unemployment was 1,807,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. In other news, the Justice Department filed a federal antitrust lawsuit against Apple (AAPL). The Dow was up 0.8%, the S&P 500 rose 0.6% and the Nasdaq gained 0.7%. Crude oil traded above $80 per barrel, while gold rose $12 to $2173 per ounce.

As detailed by Argus' Mark Arbeter, CMT, there was a major bearish intraday reversal on March 8, accompanied by heavy downside volume, especially in the Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), semiconductors, and most of the Technology sector. That was followed by downside follow-through. The QQQs and the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) lost their 21-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) by a minor amount - though we note that the 21-day EMA has been recaptured quickly of late.

Stocks pulled back on Friday morning as investors digested inflation data released this week and ahead of the Fed's policy decision next week. The Labor Department reported that U.S. import prices rose 0.3% in February, matching expectations and down from a 0.8% increase in January. Export prices rose 0.8% after advancing 0.9% in January. Prices for fuel imports advanced 1.8%, while nonfuel imports rose 0.2%. Meanwhile, manufacturing continued to decline. The Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to -20.9 in March from -2.4 in February and below expectations. New orders declined significantly, and employment and hours worked also fell. Input prices softened moderately, while output prices held steady. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the first weeks of March edged down to 76.5 from 76.9 in February. The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, the Dow was down 0.4% and the Nasdaq lost 0.9%. Crude oil traded just above $81 per barrel and gold was down $2 to $2165 per ounce.

Argus has published its latest Portfolio Selector, which features its popular Focus List. Each month, Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, surveys the team of Argus Research industry analysts for their timeliest recommendations out of the company's fundamental universe of approximately 500 stocks. The Focus List typically includes 30 stocks: turnover is high, as Jim typically adds three or four new stocks per month. Below are the latest additions, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Capital One Financial Corp. (COF); Dominos Pizza Inc (DPZ); Novo Nordisk (NVO); Shell Plc (SHEL) and the Focus List deletions are Alcon Inc. (ALC); Expedia Group Inc (EXPE); Morgan Stanley (MS); Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM).

Equity investors have enjoyed a strong start to 2024, with a nice gain in January supplemented by an even stronger performance in February. Indeed, the S&P 500 closed out the first two months of the year with a gain of 6.8%. Can the positive streak continue in March? Historically, March been a strong month for the markets -- prior to 2020. The average gain for the S&P 500 in the month of March since 1980 is now 1.01%, after absorbing the COVID-induced decline of 12.5% in 2020. March is thus in the middle of the pack (sixth place) in terms of average monthly gains, with a winning percentage of 64%. We note that market returns in March have exceeded 4% on seven occasions since 1980, including a 4.2% gain in 2021 on COVID-19 vaccination progress and a 6.6% advance in 2016 as the market was beginning to recover from the oil plunge of 2014-2015. Last year, March was on the up and up, with a gain of 3.5%. But there have been some clunkers, including 1980 (-10%), 2001 (-6.4%), 1994 (-4.5%), 1997 (-4.3%), 1988 (-3.3%), and 2020. March i generally is a quiet month on Wall Street, as the fourth-quarter earnings reports are finished in February. Without profits to review, investors will be paying very close attention to economic news, including the nonfarm payrolls report next Friday, the consumer price inflation report on March 12, and the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting on the March 19 and 20. The NYSE will be closed for Good Friday observance on March 29. We continue to hold to our forecast for a positive year for the S&P 500, with returns near the historical average.