For the past two weeks, we've discussed sentiment improvement among corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners (albeit on low transaction volume that is typical during earnings season). Prior to that, the weekly data from Vickers Stock Research showed insiders were generally cautious for the past few months, and insiders at Technology sector firms were particularly cautious. But that all started to fade lately, as sentiment among sectors moved back towards alignment and overall sentiment improved. But this week, everything old is new again.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks fell on Monday morning, led by the Technology and Communication Services sectors, as investors awaited the first 1Q earnings reports from major banks on Wednesday. Earnings from S&P 500 companies are expected to rise 25% in the first quarter, according to data from Refinitiv. On the M&A front, Microsoft said that it would acquire AI and speech recognition company Nuance Communications in a $19.7 billion deal. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 0.5%. Crude oil traded near $60 per barrel, while gold fell $12 to $1733 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

April is typically a good month for stocks. Since, 1980, the average gain for the S&P 500 in April is 1.87%, trailing only November's average gain of 1.93%. We note that market returns in April have exceeded 5% on seven occasions since 1980, including a 9.4% gain in 2009 (as the market was beginning to recover from the financial crisis of 2007-2009) and a 12.7% surge last year (as the market started to recover from the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic). There have been some clunkers, including 2002 (-6.1%), 2000 (-3.1%) and 1981 (-2.3%). April is a busy month on Wall Street, as companies report first-quarter results. This year, those results are expected to be strong, as comparisons will be against a 1Q20, when industries and economies began to shut down to fight COVID-19. Later in the month, investors will also get the first look at 1Q21 GDP growth, which we think will rise from the 4.3% pace of 1Q and may come close to 6.0%. Bond yields have been ticking higher in recent weeks, as investors prepare for stronger economic growth.

Just when anxiety over the market's direction started to intensify, the S&P 500 said, 'I got this,' and ended the 3/26/21 trading week at a new all-time closing high (ATH). Note that the closing price was less than a half-point above the prior ATH set on 3/17/21, which in market terms seems like a lifetime ago.

President Joe Biden is preparing to announce an infrastructure-rebuilding plan that he estimates will create up to 10 million clean energy jobs. The following areas of the economy stand to benefit from the government spending, which could total as much as $4 trillion. The first element of the plan is improving the country's infrastructure, from roads and bridges to water systems and electricity grids.

Stocks rose on Friday morning on positive economic data. The U.S. Labor Department reported that for the 12 months ended February 2021, the annual core inflation rate is 1.3%. The University of Michigan's March consumer sentiment index came in at 84.9, up from February's 76.8 and above the 83.6 consensus estimate. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 0.4%. Crude oil prices traded at $61 per barrel, while gold rose $7 to $1732 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Friday morning after paring early losses, with gains in the Communication Services and Energy sectors and declines in Financials. On the earnings front, FedEx shares rose more than 6% after the company posted strong fiscal 3Q results and issued better-than-expected full-year EPS guidance. Nike shares fell 4% after the company missed the consensus sales forecast for fiscal 3Q. The Dow fell 0.5%, the S&P fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.6%. Crude oil traded near $60.50 per barrel, while gold rose $1 to $1734 per ounce.

The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles, to a large degree - have moved overseas, where costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy, prior to the pandemic, had expanded to record levels. And now, the U.S. Healthcare industry is mobilizing to improve COVID-19 testing, treatments and vaccines. Consider that U.S. GDP was approximately $1 trillion in 1930 but nearly $22 trillion at the end of 2019. That's growth of 22-times. Meanwhile, the U.S. population has grown less than 3-times during that time span, to 320 million from 120 million. The delta between GDP growth and population growth has been driven in large part by innovation. In addition, the value of listed corporations on U.S. stock exchanges at the end of 2020 was approximately $32 trillion, representing 41% of global equity market capitalization, while U.S. GDP represented only 25% of global GDP. The current low level of interest rates (the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond yield is 1.1%) and the relatively high level of the dollar both attest to the confidence that global investors have in the innovative U.S. economy.

The stock market performed well during last week, as vaccine news and reopening news was generally positive. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 293 points, or 0.90%. The S&P 500 was up 0.10%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.59%. For the week, the DJIA was up 1282 points, or 4.07%, the S&P 500 was up 2.64%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 3.09%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 7.10%, the S&P 500 is up 4.99%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 3.35%.