The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID) have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be less disrupted by the fallout from global events. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. As well, there are long stretches in the record books when SMID stocks have outperformed large-caps. That said, SMID stocks can be risky. The standard deviation for monthly returns was 5.7% for SMID stocks over a 2003-2021 test period, versus 4.3% for large-caps. Still, despite the risks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record.

In this edition, mining and mining commodities; what's ahead for auto dealers; and an analyst transfer for Arkema; and JD Logistics, Papa John's, and General Mills.

Stocks rallied on Thursday, extending yesterday's gains on rate-cut optimism. Turning to stocks, shares of Apple (AAPL) are down after the U.S. Department of Justice filed a lawsuit accusing the company of engineering a monopoly in the smartphone market. Bank stocks are up today as investors are optimistic that the anticipated rate cuts this year will drive more transactions. The S&P 500 is up 0.3%, the Dow is up 0.7%, the Nasdaq is up 0.2%, and the Russell 2000 is up 1.16%.

The S&P 500 (SPX) and S&P 100 (OEX) closed at minor all-time highs (ATHs) on Tuesday, while the rest of the major indices were near that mark as the relentless push higher continues. The leadership over the past month has shifted from AI and Technology to cyclical sectors -- which is what happens in a strong bull market. Rotation is really starting to gain some footing in 2024 and is critical to a long and enduring uptrend. We have seen addditional cyclical sectors join the party over the past month, as Energy (XLE +8.6%), Materials (XLB +6.8%), and Industrials (XLI +4.5%) have taken some of the load off the Technology gains.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning as investors await results from the Federal Reserve policy meeting. On the housing front, in February, housing starts rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.52 million. This up from the revised 1.37 million in January and above expectations of 1.43 million. Building permits issued were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.52 million, up from January's revised 1.49 million. The Dow rose 0.6%, the S&P 500 was nearly flat and the Nasdaq lost 0.3%. Crude oil traded above $83 per barrel, while gold fell $7 to $2157 per ounce.

U.S. stocks were rallied on Monday morning led by tech stocks as investors await the Fed's decision as to whether there will be three rate cuts in 2024. Treasury yields are edging higher. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P 500 was up 0.9%, and the Nasdaq gained 1.2%. Crude oil traded above $82 per barrel, while gold traded above $2162 per ounce.

We see what we believe are some great opportunities right now in Healthcare -- and we like the sector overall. Argus Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, recently completed his quarterly sector review and raised Healthcare sector to Over-Weight from Market-Weight. The healthcare environment is undergoing rapid transitions, and we now see an unfolding period of significant promise and opportunity. Our newly-favored stance is based on resumption of deferred medical procedures and significant new quality-of-life drugs and treatments. The category is broad and has underperformed the S&P 500 over the past year. The Healthcare sector ETF (XLV) is up 15% over the past year compared to a gain of 31% for the S&P 500. We see opportunity here to pick up some steady companies, with big brands and solid financials. These companies are science-focused and enhance lives. They are innovators. In our list this week, we look across several subsectors within the Healthcare sector and pull out some leaders we like. These stocks also are included in our Focus List and Model Portfolios, as noted below.

Stocks pulled back on Friday morning as investors digested inflation data released this week and ahead of the Fed's policy decision next week. The Labor Department reported that U.S. import prices rose 0.3% in February, matching expectations and down from a 0.8% increase in January. Export prices rose 0.8% after advancing 0.9% in January. Prices for fuel imports advanced 1.8%, while nonfuel imports rose 0.2%. Meanwhile, manufacturing continued to decline. The Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to -20.9 in March from -2.4 in February and below expectations. New orders declined significantly, and employment and hours worked also fell. Input prices softened moderately, while output prices held steady. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the first weeks of March edged down to 76.5 from 76.9 in February. The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, the Dow was down 0.4% and the Nasdaq lost 0.9%. Crude oil traded just above $81 per barrel and gold was down $2 to $2165 per ounce.

'Green Shoots' from the Fed

Monday Tee Up: Is Inflation Still Trending Down?

The stock market finally saw a little reversion to the mean on Friday, as the most-loved stock and industry was whacked. Nvidia (NVDA) fell 5.5%, its worst day since May 2023. This followed huge advances of 95% since January 3 and 130% since October 2023. Over six days (ending March 7), the shares rose more than 19%. At Friday's intraday high, NVDA hit $974 and then was slammed down to $865 by 1:35 pm.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the U.S. economy generated 275,000 new jobs in February, well above our forecast of 185,000 and the consensus of 200,000. January's result was revised lower to 229,000 from 353,000, and job gains in January and December combined were revised lower by 167,000. February's increase in payrolls and the revisions to January and December took the three-month average to 265,000, which is still above the 12-month average of 230,000 and signals robust hiring. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% from 3.7%. While this uptick is a sign that the job market is not invincible, our calculations suggest this increase is not enough to trigger the Sahm Rule recession indicator. Average hourly earnings increased five cents month-to-month and are now 4.3% higher year-over-year (compared to 4.4% in January). The average workweek rose to 34.3 hours in February from 34.2 hours in January. Job gains occurred in healthcare, government, food services and drinking places, social assistance, and transportation and warehousing. Employment showed little change over the month in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; information; financial activities; professional and business services; and other services. After this morning's report, S&P 500 stock futures rose slightly from pre-release levels. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was little changed at 4.07%. Before the release, futures contracts suggested a 96% probability that the Fed will keep the funds target at 5.25%-5.50% when it meets on March 19 and 20. After the release, the probability dropped, but only to 95%. The chance that the funds rate will be lower after the May meeting (either by 20 or 50 basis points) rose to 31% from 26%.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

As if the stock market needed more help, now we have declining Treasury yields across the entire yield curve. Treasury yields fell consistently from October 19, 2023, until their most-recent bottom on December 27. That move certainly helped stocks rally off their October 27 low. Yields popped from 12/27/23 until 2/22/24 and stocks ignored the increase. Since their closing peaks of 4.33% a few weeks ago, both the 5- and 10-year yields have dropped to 4.1% while the 2-year has declined to 4.56% from 4.7%.

Rallying Market Ignores Warning Signs: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Stocks