This morning's release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will be the third, and final, update of 4Q GDP. The update last month indicated 4Q real GDP rose at an annualized 3.2% pace, down from 4.9% growth in 3Q23. The 4Q performance is solid, with contributions from consumer spending, private investment, exports, and government spending. We don't expect a major revision to GDP this morning. Between 1996 and 2022, the average absolute revision to the quarterly percentage change in real GDP was just 30 basis points, according to the BEA. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) on durable goods increased 3.2%, despite a decline in motor vehicles and parts. Gross private domestic investment in structures rose 7.5% after an 11.2% increase in 3Q and a 16.1% increase in 2Q. A report from the U.S. Treasury Department attributed the recent surge in construction to spending on manufacturing facilities for computers, electronics, and electrical products (bolstered by the CHIPS Act), adding that these categories have become a dominant component of manufacturing construction after a few decades of relatively small share. On April 25, the BEA will release its advance estimate for 1Q GDP. We expect 1Q24 growth to slow to 2.3%. The March 26 GDPNow forecast for 1Q24 from the Atlanta Fed is 2.1%, with an estimate for 1.9% growth in PCE. Residential fixed investment and intellectual property could make strong contributions to 1Q GDP according to the Nowcast. For the remainder of 2024, we expect GDP growth of 1.3% in 2Q, 1.8% in 3Q, and 2.3% in 4Q. Our full year 2024 estimate is 2.0%. Our 2025 estimate is also 2.0. Federal Reserve board members and bank presidents expect GDP to grow 2.1% in 2024, 2.0% in 2025, 2.0% in 2026, and 1.8% in the "longer run," based on the median projections provided at their March meeting.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

All of the major U.S. stock indices are higher at midday on Tuesday, albeit modestly so. Investors are mulling over some fresh economic data in the form of durable goods orders and consumer confidence. Orders for durable goods rebounded in February, up 1.4% on the back of increases in transportation equipment and machinery orders. Turning to consumer confidence, The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for March printed at 104.7 compared to a revised 104.8 in February. But the so-called 'expectations index' dropped to 73.8 from 76.3 a month ago. That suggests that consumers are less optimistic in the short term. Crude oil has turned slightly lower as of midday, while gold is essentially on a flat line.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID) have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be less disrupted by the fallout from global events. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. As well, there are long stretches in the record books when SMID stocks have outperformed large-caps. That said, SMID stocks can be risky. The standard deviation for monthly returns was 5.7% for SMID stocks over a 2003-2021 test period, versus 4.3% for large-caps. Still, despite the risks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record.

U.S. markets were mixed on Friday morning, but are still on track for gains for the week. On the earnings front, FedEx (FDX) rose 7% on an earnings beat, while Nike (NKE) was down about 7% on a weak outlook. The Dow was down 0.5%, the S&P 500 fell 0.1% and the Nasdaq gained less than 0.1%. Crude oil traded above $80 per barrel, while gold fell $16 to $2169 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Federal Reserve wrapped up its latest Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday and, as expected, held the current federal funds rate steady at 5.25%-5.50%. The fed funds rate remains at its highest level since 2000 and is above the long-term average of 4.4%. This is the Fed's plan, of course: keep rates high to push inflation lower. In the meantime, inflation has indeed been on a downward trek. The latest core CPI reading was 3.8%, down from 9.1% in July 2022, and the latest core PCE Price Index reading was 2.8%. Yet despite the progress, both are still well above the Fed's target of 2.0%, and the slope of the downward trajectory has flattened out lately. Those are potential problems for a central bank that watched while inflation got out of hand in 2020-2021 and wants to rebuild its reputation as an effective inflation fighter. After this latest meeting, the Fed released its Summary of Economic Projections, which includes its "dot plot" forecasts of potential rate changes in the coming months. Chairman Powell and his colleagues remain on track with a plan to lower rates three times in 2024 and then potentially another three times in 2025. Ultimately, those moves are going to depend on the pace of decline in the inflation rate and any pronounced upward move in the unemployment rate. The good news is that the Fed is already ahead of the inflation curve, and the current real fed funds rate of 2.6% is above the historical average of 1.6%. Equity investors cheered the Fed's plans on Wednesday, lifting market averages to new all-time highs.

Stocks pulled back on Friday morning as investors digested inflation data released this week and ahead of the Fed's policy decision next week. The Labor Department reported that U.S. import prices rose 0.3% in February, matching expectations and down from a 0.8% increase in January. Export prices rose 0.8% after advancing 0.9% in January. Prices for fuel imports advanced 1.8%, while nonfuel imports rose 0.2%. Meanwhile, manufacturing continued to decline. The Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to -20.9 in March from -2.4 in February and below expectations. New orders declined significantly, and employment and hours worked also fell. Input prices softened moderately, while output prices held steady. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the first weeks of March edged down to 76.5 from 76.9 in February. The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, the Dow was down 0.4% and the Nasdaq lost 0.9%. Crude oil traded just above $81 per barrel and gold was down $2 to $2165 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

After Friday's bearish intraday reversal and heavy downside volume, especially in the Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), semiconductors, and most of the Technology sector, we did see some downside follow-through on Monday. But it certainly wasn't convincing. Once again, the market bounced off its lows as algorithmic trading seemingly took over. The Nasdaq and the QQQs fell 0.4%, while the S&P 500 (SPX) clawed its way back, dropping a mere 0.1%.

The stock market fell back a bit on Friday, with the impact most notable on the likes of the Nasdaq Composite index, semiconductor chipmakers, and recently high-flying stocks such as Nvidia. Time will tell if this is the beginning of a reset for stocks, but this one-day action aligns with recent insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research. Indeed, for more than a month, that data has clearly suggested that corporate executives, directors, and beneficial owners as a group have become increasingly defensive while stocks pushed higher day after day after day. That is unchanged this week.

Monday Tee Up: Is Inflation Still Trending Down?

The stock market finally saw a little reversion to the mean on Friday, as the most-loved stock and industry was whacked. Nvidia (NVDA) fell 5.5%, its worst day since May 2023. This followed huge advances of 95% since January 3 and 130% since October 2023. Over six days (ending March 7), the shares rose more than 19%. At Friday's intraday high, NVDA hit $974 and then was slammed down to $865 by 1:35 pm.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The stock market had a rough day on Tuesday, but it could have been worse if not for a burst of late-day buying. In the current market, after only six hours of weakness, buyers step in. Once again, the major indices held support from the typical short-term moving averages such as the 10- and 21-day exponential averages. The S&P 500 (SPX) gave back 1%, while the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 (NDX) fell 1.7%.