U.S. markets were mixed on Friday morning, but are still on track for gains for the week. On the earnings front, FedEx (FDX) rose 7% on an earnings beat, while Nike (NKE) was down about 7% on a weak outlook. The Dow was down 0.5%, the S&P 500 fell 0.1% and the Nasdaq gained less than 0.1%. Crude oil traded above $80 per barrel, while gold fell $16 to $2169 per ounce.

The FOMC maintained the target range for the fed funds rate at 5.25 to 5.50%. The FOMC does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%. The FOMC will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency MBS, but said that the central bank will begin to slow its balance sheet runoff soon. Recent indicators suggest that the economy has been expanding solidly. Job gains have remained strong and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.

Stocks pulled back on Friday morning as investors digested inflation data released this week and ahead of the Fed's policy decision next week. The Labor Department reported that U.S. import prices rose 0.3% in February, matching expectations and down from a 0.8% increase in January. Export prices rose 0.8% after advancing 0.9% in January. Prices for fuel imports advanced 1.8%, while nonfuel imports rose 0.2%. Meanwhile, manufacturing continued to decline. The Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to -20.9 in March from -2.4 in February and below expectations. New orders declined significantly, and employment and hours worked also fell. Input prices softened moderately, while output prices held steady. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the first weeks of March edged down to 76.5 from 76.9 in February. The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, the Dow was down 0.4% and the Nasdaq lost 0.9%. Crude oil traded just above $81 per barrel and gold was down $2 to $2165 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Thursday on hotter-than-expected inflation readings. In February, headline PPI rose 0.6%, up from 0.2% in January and ahead of the expected 0.3% increase -- with nearly two-thirds of the increase attributed to a rise in prices for final-demand goods. A 4.4% rise in energy prices during the month was the main factor in the increase in final-demand goods, contributing over one-third of the increase. PPI rose 0.4% in February, down from 0.6% last month but ahead of the expected 0.2% increase. U.S. retail sales in February were up 0.6%, following the 0.8% decline in January. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P 500 was down 0.3%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.1%. Crude oil traded above $81 per barrel, while gold fell $18 to $2162 per ounce.

In this edition, we explore strength of the refining market; transferring coverage of Motorola; and initiating coverage of BYD Electronic; and OrbusNeich, Jazz Pharmaceuticals, and Prudential Financial.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Capital One Financial Corp. (COF); Dominos Pizza Inc (DPZ); Novo Nordisk (NVO); Shell Plc (SHEL) and the Focus List deletions are Alcon Inc. (ALC); Expedia Group Inc (EXPE); Morgan Stanley (MS); Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM).

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Our analysis of recent data leads us to conclude that the U.S. economy is healthy and consumers are still leading the way. Based on the second update to 4Q GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) contributed 2.0 points of the 3.2% increase in GDP, which was revised down from 3.3% in the first estimate. Within PCE, the huge services category was a standout, contributing 1.28 points to GDP. PCE represented 69%, or $15.6 trillion of the fourth quarter's $22.7 trillion GDP. Services represented $10.1 trillion or 45% of total GDP. Our 2024 GDP forecast is for 2.0% growth. We expect 1Q to be up 2.3%. We expect 2Q to be the weakest of 2024, with 1.3% growth ramping to 1.8% in 3Q and 2.3% in 4Q. In February, economists in the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters expected GDP to rise 2.4% in 2024, with 1Q up 2.1%, 2Q and 3Q each up 1.5%, and 4Q up 1.7%. On March 1, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimated 1Q24 growth of 2.1%. Our 2024 forecast assumes inflation continues to fall and the Fed has completed its rate-hike campaign, with monetary easing likely to begin in the middle of the year. In recent data, we have seen that January's job market was much stronger than we expected, while post-holiday retail sales were weaker than we anticipated. Walmart said, in its 4Q earnings call, that its customers are resilient but looking for value. WMT is seeing less inflation and hopefully setting a trend of passing the savings on to customers. WMT has reduced the prices of key items. While economic growth may be uneven in 2024 and into 2025, we believe the Fed has the ability to bolster growth if it falters badly. Our early forecast is for GDP to grow 2.0% in 2025. We expect the Fed will be close to meeting its dual mandate, with inflation near 2% and unemployment at approximately 4.1%.

Management's ability to "raise guidance" can often be a catalyst for market-beating returns in the quarters ahead. The fourth-quarter earnings season has crossed the 95% mark and is wrapping up, with blended earnings (actual results and the consensus for those still to report) showing a year-over-year gain of almost 10%, according to Refinitiv. That is considerably better than the 4%-7% advance expected at the start of the earnings period. Leading the outperformance were strong gains in Communication Services earnings, up 53%. On the flipside, Energy (like last quarter) is performing the worst, down 22%. Our analysts are always on the lookout for companies that boost their outlooks during earnings season. Here is an initial list of BUY-rated companies in Argus' Fundamental Universe of Coverage at which management raised guidance or increased its outlook during the 4Q23 EPS reporting season.

In this edition, we explore if Generac's clean energy strategy holds water; light vehicle demand in China; and the near-term oil and gas supply market; and FMC, Spirit AeroSystems, and Green Thumb Industries.

Stocks are up following yesterday's PCE inflation reading. Shares of Dell Technologies (DELL) popped after the company's latest quarter came in ahead of expectations, boosted by AI-server demand that is currently exceeding supply. Spirit Aerosystems (SPR) is up on news that Boeing (BA) is in talks to acquire SPR. The S&P 500 is up 0.5%, the Nasdaq rose 0.7% and the Dow is us less than 0.1%. Crude oil is trading above $80 per barrel and gold is up $32 to $2087 per ounce.

Depending on today's close, the three major indices might achieve 16 positive weeks out of 18 on their northern glide path. So far, this surely is a "leap" year. The Nasdaq finally made an all-time high (ATH), jumping above the last ATH from November 19, 2021. Yes, that took a long time (about 27.5 months). But after the 2000 high, it took the index more than 15 years to recover -- so just a couple years isn't so bad. Is this a significant breakout? As we have said, great breakouts to ATHs occur after multi-year bases, not after vicious rallies.

Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 hit new highs on inflation data that came in as expected. Other economic data released today included initial jobless claims, which came to 215,000, up from last week's revised 212,000 and ahead of expectations. Ongoing unemployment rose to 1,905,000 from the previous week's revised 1,860,000; that raised the insured unemployment rate by 0.1% to 1.3%. The S&P 500 rose 0.5%, the Nasdaq gained 0.9%, while the Dow fell 0.1%.