Research Reports

U.S. markets held steady intraday Monday following record highs last week. Amazon.com replaced Walgreens Boots Alliance in the 30-stock Dow. New home sales in January 2024 rose 1.5% from December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 661,000 units. The median sales price was $420,700 and the average sales price was $534,300. The Nasdaq rose 0.2%, the S&P 500 fell less than 0.01% and the Dow was unchanged. Crude oil rose $1 to $77 per barrel, while gold fell $12 to $2038 per ounce.

Stock indices dipped in October 2023, with the S&P 500 falling a sharp 10% off summer highs. Looking at 13F filings of big institutional portfolios, we see that the big guns were busy last quarter taking advantage of that dip. Citadel Advisors went on a buying spree, adding to its $100 billion portfolio across a range of sectors. As did D.E. Shaw, adding to its $67 billion portfolio. Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, analyzes insider trading and institutional stock ownership. Form 13-Fs, which institutions must file to report their holdings, are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters and have come in for 4Q24. We review 13Fs of major activists to determine core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing is now less about generating a short-term return and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Based on data from Vickers, here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, as well as other high-profile money managers.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks edged higher on Monday morning, extending last week's gains amid optimism about an end to Fed rate hikes. Investors weighed earnings reports from Berkshire Hathaway and Dish Network and awaited results from Disney later in the week. Tesla also announced plans to build a relatively low-cost electric car at its plant in Germany. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P 0.1%, and the Nasdaq 0.1%. Crude oil rose more than 1% to $81.50 per barrel while gold fell $9 to trade near $1990 per ounce.

Quantitative, fundamental, and technical analysis offer valuable and ongoing insights on which many investors reply. But so-called 'black swan' events disrupt all of that as they push everything else to the side and steal the headlines (and the trading action) for as long as they do. To date, 2023 has been a good year for those who invest in stocks. But last week, not so much after Fitch surprised the investing world with a downgrade of U.S. debt.

In this edition, Berkshire's cash hoard an issue for firm; senior housing industry sees silver lining; and hailing Boston Beer; and Datadog, Host Hotels and Resorts, and Magna International

Stocks fell on Monday morning, giving back some of Friday's gains amid deepening debt-ceiling concerns. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently warned that the United States could default on its debt by June 1, sooner than initially expected, if Congress does not act. Investors also looked ahead to the April CPI report on Wednesday for signs of progress in the battle against inflation. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P 0.1%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil rose more than 2% to $73 per barrel while gold rose $7 to $2032 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks fell sharply on Tuesday morning after Fed Chair Jerome Powell, testifying before Congress, said that interest rates were likely to rise more than previously expected. Mr. Powell said that the process of lowering inflation still had 'a long way to go' to reach the Fed's target rate of 2% and that it was likely to be 'bumpy.' The Dow fell 1.2%, the S&P 1.1%, and the Nasdaq 0.8%. Crude oil fell nearly 3% to $78 per barrel, while gold dropped $31 to trade near $1824 per ounce.

Previously, we have talked about the bullish implications of a falling U.S. Dollar Index for emerging markets, as well as the positives seen in precious metals and other commodities. While the emerging market ETF (EEM) has seen a nice advance since October, other country ETFs have exploded in recent months. While we are not surprised by the EEM rally, a review of other country-specific stock markets caught us off guard.

The stock market has taken two consecutive body shots and is starting to look wobbly. The S&P 500 (SPX) has broken down from its bullish channel off the October lows and is under its prior low from late November. The five-day/13-day exponential moving average crossover system is close to turning bearish after a very good run since its last bullish signal on October 21. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) also has broken its uptrend off its lows since late September.

Stocks soared on Thursday morning after lower-than-expected inflation data raised prospects for a slowdown in Federal Reserve rate hikes. The Labor Department said that its core consumer price index, excluding food and energy costs, rose 6.3% from the prior year in October, down from 6.6% in September and below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 6.5% growth. The Dow jumped 2.7%, the S&P 4.1%, and the Nasdaq 6.1%. Crude oil rose to $87 per barrel, while gold rose $33 to $1747 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Tuesday morning, led by declines in the Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors, as investors awaited the July CPI report on Wednesday. Micron Technology shares fell more than 5% after the chipmaker warned of lower demand and cut its fiscal 4Q sales guidance. Vaccine maker Novavax dropped nearly 30% after reporting a wider-than-expected 2Q loss and slashing its full-year sales forecast. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 1.3%. Crude oil traded near $91 per barrel, while gold rose $3 to $1808 per ounce.

Stocks have struggled in 2022, in particular over the past two weeks. In response, several insider-sentiment readings from Vickers Stock Research are now positive -- suggesting that insiders are using the current dip as an opportunity to buy stocks at seemingly reduced prices.

This edition features TripAdvisor's journey, Berkshire's burgeoning bank account, acquirers being a good bet, and Assa Abloy, Polaris, and ServiceNow.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine, and specifically fire at a nuclear plant, extended the stock market's losing streak last week. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 180 points, or 0.53%. The S&P 500 fell 0.79%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.66%. For the week, the DJIA was down 444 points, or 1.3%, while the S&P 500 was off 1.27%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 2.78%. Year-to-date, the Dow is down 7.49%; the S&P 500 is off 9.18%. The Nasdaq Composite extended its relative underperformance and is now down 14.90% year to date.

Stocks edged higher on Friday morning, led by the Technology and Communication Services sectors. Johnson & Johnson announced that it would split into two companies, one focused on pharmaceuticals and the other on consumer health products. On the employment front, the Labor Department, in its monthly JOLTS report, said that U.S. job openings slipped to 10.4 million on the last day of September, down from 10.6 million a month earlier but above the Reuters consensus forecast of 10.3 million. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.4%. Crude oil traded near $81 per barrel, while gold fell slightly to $1864 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Last week, we detailed positive trends in insider sentiment, even in the face of light transaction volume (the result of trading restrictions during earnings season). This week, Vickers Stock Research reports that insider transaction volume has started to increase as earnings season comes to a close. Broadly put, the positive short-term trends from last week have not held, though the current data is not bad enough to damage longer-term trends.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks were mixed on Monday morning amid a new round of first-quarter earnings reports and weaker-than-expected manufacturing and construction data. The Institute for Supply Management said that its factory index fell to 60.7 in April, down from 64.7 in March and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 65.0. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said that U.S. construction spending rose 0.2% in March, up from a 0.6% decline in February but well below the consensus forecast calling for 1.9% growth. The Dow rose 0.9%, the S&P rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.5%. Crude oil traded near $64.50 per barrel, while gold jumped $27 to $1795 per ounce.