The stock market is in a rough patch for the first time since the July to October period of last year. After the major indices hit their secondary highs on April 11 (the Nasdaq hit its all-time high that day), is has pretty much been 'down periscope.' Out of those trading six days, the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) have fallen between 0.9% and 2.1% on three (SPX) or four of those days. Despite the very steep downside slope of the Big 3, NYSE breadth actually bottomed on April 12 and 15, illustrating that the selling has been concentrated in Big Tech and the many stocks that were overly extended on a momentum basis.

Two important inflation reports were released this week. Both indicated that overall pricing pressures have retreated from peaks in 2022. But both also confirmed that inflation remains above the Fed's target of 2.0% and both indicated that progress to that level may be hard to achieve. Let's first take a deeper dive into the Consumer Price Index. According to the latest CPI report, the overall inflation rate in March of 3.5% was higher than the prior month's rate of 3.2%. That bit of bad news was compounded by a steady reading in the core CPI rate, which excludes the impact of food and energy and rose at an annual pace of 3.8% over the past year. What's propping up core CPI? Two main factors: Transportation Services (+10.7% yoy) and Shelter (5.7%). These elements of the index have prices that don't typically fall sharply. Energy prices are also starting to tick higher. The other inflation report was the Producer Price Index. PPI measures pricing trends farther up the supply chain, at the manufacturing level. Here, we see a modest decline in the rate of inflation on a monthly basis. For example, the core final demand PPI rate for March was 0.2%, compared to 0.6% in February and 0.4% in January. How worrisome is all of this? We have noted for months that progress will be slow for inflation returning to the 2.0% level. And nothing was terribly alarming about either of the reports. Energy prices remain relatively subdued, and prices at the PPI Intermediate demand level -- farther up the value chain -- continue to outright decline. We think the June 2022 CPI rate was the peak reading for the index this cycle, as the housing market cools, supplies of new vehicles are replenished, and the price of oil stays below $90 per barrel. The Fed has lifted the feds fund rate from 0.0% to above 5.25% over the past 18 months, and the rate hikes appear to be reducing inflationary pressures. We look for the U.S. central bank to be lowering rates in 2H24 and 1H25 as their concern shifts more toward economic growth.

Stock markets were down on Wednesday morning following hotter-than-expected CPI data. Headline CPI rose 0.4% in March, matching the increase in February and above expectations for a slight decline. This latest reading brings annual CPI to 3.5%, up from 3.2% last month. Core CPI also rose 0.4%, which matched February's increase and also was ahead of estimates. Annual core CPI now stands at 3.8%, unchanged from February. The shelter and energy components rose in March and contributed over half of the increase in CPI. Food prices inched up 0.1%, while energy rose a more-modest 1.1%, down from the 2.3% increase last month. New vehicle prices declined 0.2%, a sharper decline than the 0.1% decrease last month. Shelter costs advanced 0.4%, matching the increase in February. The Dow was down 1.3%, the S&P 500 fell 1.1% and the Nasdaq lost 1.0%. Crude oil traded above $85 per barrel and gold fell $7 to $2355 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The stock market blasted off late last week, propelling the S&P 500 to an all-time high (ATH). It has been a long recovery (over two years) for the index, as its last ATH was on January 3, 2022. The Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 100 beat the '500' to new highs, while the S&P 400 is close. The Nasdaq and the NYSE still have work to do to puncture their ATHs from late 2021 and early 2022. The Russell 2000 and S&P 600 are nowhere near all-time highs.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The rise in global land and sea temperatures, the melting of Arctic Sea ice, and the alarming frequency of extreme weather events provide evidence that climate change is underway. United in their concern over greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) stemming from fossil fuel power plants and car and truck tailpipes, 194 member states of the United Nations signed the Paris Agreement in 2015. This legally-binding international treaty on climate change seeks to limit global warming to well-below 2.0, preferably 1.5, degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels. Concern over the health of the planet and its inhabitants, as well as reluctance to be reliant on overseas fuel sources, prompted governments around the globe to develop and deploy clean, renewable sources of energy. In the U.S., the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, enacted by the 117th Congress, calls for the investment of $391 billion in programs and incentives relating to energy security and climate change. It includes over $120 billion for renewable energy and grid energy storage, tax credits for wind power, solar power, and clean energy manufacturing, electric vehicle incentives, and other energy efficiency measures. We expect the IRA to kick clean energy into a higher gear. Already, wind power as a percentage of U.S. electricity generation has grown from less than 1% in 1990, to 10.2% by 2022, according to the U.S. Energy Administration. The global solar power market is also large and growing quickly. It generated $235 billion in 2022 revenues, and is projected to rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.9% to $293 billion in 2029. For more insights and ideas into the Clean Energy sector, see our latest Industry Review & Outlook for Clean Energy.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks were mostly lower on Wednesday morning amid mixed earnings reports from major companies and new housing market data. The Commerce Department said that U.S. new home sales rose 12.3% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 759,000 units in September, well above the Reuters consensus forecast of 680,000. On the earnings front, Alphabet posted above-consensus 3Q results, though the shares dropped 9% on concerns about weakness in the company's cloud business. On the positive side, Microsoft shares rose 3% after the company reported strong fiscal 1Q sales and earnings, helped by growth in cloud computing. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P fell 0.8%, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.5%. Crude oil fell slightly to $83.50 per barrel, while gold traded near $1987 per ounce.

The first-quarter earnings season has passed the halfway mark with 292 (or 58%) of S&P 500 companies having reported results through August 1. An impressive 81% of those companies exceeded earnings expectations, while the blended (actual and still to report) earnings decline is now projected at 5.9%, according to Refinitv. The Consumer Discretionary sector still leads with 36% earnings growth, while Energy is now by far the weakest sector, with a 48% profit decline. Our analysts are always on the lookout for companies that boost their outlooks during earnings season. Management's ability to "raise guidance" can often be a catalyst to market-beating returns in the quarters ahead. Here is an initial list of BUY-rated companies in Argus Coverage for which management has raised guidance or increased its outlook during the 2Q23 EPS reporting season.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

We had some reversion to the mean last week, although it was just a blip on the broader radar. The Nasdaq 100 gave back 0.9% and the Nasdaq lost 0.6%, while the Russell 2000 gained 1.5%, the S&P 500 Equal Weight tacked on 1.4%, and the S&P MidCap 400 added 1.2%. The NYSE Fang Plus Index (10 stocks with equal weighting, including AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, TSLA) fell 3.3%. But don't fret, the index is still up 74% in 2023.

In this edition, we catalog catalysts that can catapult GE; life science shares offer opportunities; Cognizant shares are a top pick; and Cooper, Veeva Systems, and NetEase.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional stock ownership trends. Form 13-Fs, which institutions must file to report their holdings, are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and have now come in from 1Q23. We review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners and ValueAct Holdings, among others, in order to determine their core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Activists have made progress in the past year with high-profile investments into blue-chip companies such as FedEx Inc. and Union Pacific. Based on Vickers data, here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of Activist investors, as well as other high-profile money managers such as Warren Buffet of Berkshire Hathaway and Ken Griffin of Citadel Advisors LLC.

Our list this week identifies companies that received an Argus target-price increase in April. As the stock prices of these companies approached their target prices, Argus analysts saw those prices going even higher. We are in the thick of earnings season and our analysts are scouring quarterly reports to evaluate how the companies they follow are doing. With economists busy analyzing economic data to determine whether the economy might slip into recession, companies have been attending to their businesses. Some are weathering current economic conditions better than others. The economic pressures are real - including rising interest rates, inflation, the strong dollar, and wavering consumer spending patterns. These stressors are on top of normal competitive pressures, as companies fight to sell their products and services, outmaneuver peers, and make profits. Looking back at April, our analysts found companies where the business outlook is solid - and went through the mechanics of our valuation framework to adjust target prices upwards. Our framework includes analysis of historical multiples, peer multiples, and future dividends and cash flows. Here are the stocks on which we raised target prices in April. All are rated BUY at Argus.

Stocks were mostly higher on Wednesday morning following earnings from major Tech companies and new manufacturing data. Microsoft shares rose more than 7% after the company posted better-than-expected fiscal 3Q results, driven by strength in its cloud and AI businesses. However, UK regulators blocked the company's planned acquisition of videogame maker Activision Blizzard. Meanwhile, new data showed a sharper-than-expected decline in capital goods orders. The Commerce Department said that orders for core capital goods excluding aircraft fell 0.4% in March; the Reuters consensus forecast had called for a smaller decline of 0.1%. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.1%. Crude oil traded near $77 per barrel, while gold rose slightly to $2005 per ounce.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of The Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional stock ownership trends. Form 13-Fs, which institutions must file to report their holdings, are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and have now come in for 4Q22. We like to review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings, among others, in order to determine their core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Activists have made progress in the past quarter with high-profile investments into blue-chip companies such as Walt Disney and Salesforce. Based on data from Vickers, here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, as well as other high-profile money managers such as Warren Buffet of Berkshire Hathaway and Ken Griffin of Citadel Advisors LLC.

The current volume of insider transactions remains the primary issue when considering current insider sentiment. As is always the case when earnings season in full swing, insiders are broadly prohibited from trading and, as such, there are few transactions and therefore few meaningful signals about insider sentiment. But even with less sentiment inputs, the weekly data from Vickers Stock Research does reflect trends -- and current trends ring no alarms.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional ownership trends. Form 13-Fs are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and have now come in from 3Q22. We like to review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings (among others) in order to determine their core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of Activist investors, according to Vickers.

Monday Tee Up: The Fed, Jobs, Earnings Roll On

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes trends in insider trading and institutional ownership. Form 13Fs are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters and have now come in from 2Q22. We like to review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings, among others, in order to determine their core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of Activist investors, according to Vickers.

As of the close on July 25, the major indices were sitting at key short-term spots -- either at recent breakout areas or just above. The S&P 500 fell back to its breakout area near 3,950 and was just above its 50-day average. The Nasdaq was slightly above its breakout at 11,700 and a few hundred points above its 50-day. The QQQs were above the breakout point at 297; the S&P MidCap 400 was very close to breakout; and the Russell 2000 had pulled right back to key short-term chart support.

This edition features GE Aviation's soaring potential, the downshifting price of CarMax, opportunities in the Europe chemicals sector, and Shimano, Biogen, and Kellogg.

Simply put, the trading week ended Friday, April 22, was just ugly, with a two-day S&P 500 collapse of 4.2% (the largest two-day slide since September 2020). The Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) gave up 4.6%.

Stocks were mostly higher on Monday morning, though the S&P remained on track for its worst month since the pandemic selloff in March 2020. Meanwhile, investors continued to weigh prospects for aggressive interest rate hikes as the Fed works to tamp down inflation. Goldman Sachs said that it expected five hikes in 2022, up from its prior forecast of four, and Bank of America said that it expected seven rate hikes. The Dow was flat, the S&P rose 0.7%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.0%. Crude oil rose slightly to $87 per barrel, while gold traded near $1796 per ounce.

In 2021, several major corporations announced that they were splitting into pieces, and we don't think the dismantling of conglomerates has run its course. Last year, industrial icon General Electric decided to split into three companies, with one focused on Aerospace, one on Healthcare, and one on Power/Energy. Pharmaceutical titan Johnson & Johnson also announced it is planning to carve off its consumer division and focus just on drugs and devices. These companies, which took generations to build, have abruptly concluded that their best growth opportunities exist for them as smaller, more-nimble, and more-focused companies. Former conglomerate United Technologies blazed this trail in 2020. UTX, now Raytheon Technologies, or RTX, is now three listed firms, with focuses on Aerospace, HVAC and Elevators. This split-up has most favored the HVAC company Carrier Global Holdings Corp. (CARR), which has risen more than 200%. The other businesses are only slightly trailing the broad market. We think investors can benefit from these transactions if they look closely at the resulting companies and focus on the balance sheet, management, and earnings transparency. Companies that potentially fit this theme for 2022 include the following.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional ownership trends. Form 13-Fs are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and have now come in from 2Q21. We like to review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings, among others. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, according to Vickers.

Over the weekend, the House of Representatives approved the largest public works bill since the 1950s. The bipartisan trillion-dollar bill, which was passed by the Senate in August, now goes to President Biden's desk for signing. The plan focuses on improving the country's infrastructure, from roads and bridges to water systems and electricity grids. It also targets the auto industry, with a focus on electric vehicles and charging stations. In the power sector, Biden's goal is to achieve a carbon-free power industry by 2035. To improve energy efficiency in buildings, he is looking to retrofit four million buildings in the four years. Elsewhere, business Services companies also stand to benefit; bond issuance should pick up given that the infrastructure spending plan will be financed at least in part by bonds; and payroll companies could get a boost processing more paychecks as the infrastructure plan creates "millions of good paying jobs." All-in-all, some of the companies that we think may benefit include the following.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The U.S. GDP growth rate decelerated sharply in 3Q21, to an annualized 2.0% (and below Street estimates that were generally at 3.0%-4.0%). First-half GDP growth averaged 6.5%. There were a few pockets of strength in 3Q, including Investments into Intellectual Property Products (up 12.2%), Personal Consumption Expenditures on Services (up 7.9%) and State and Local Spending (up 4.4%). These were offset by a 26.2% decline in PCE-Durable Goods, a 7.7% decline in Residential Investment, and 5.1% decline in Export-Goods. Inventories again fell sharply. Much of the weakness can be attributed to supply chain challenges that have depleted auto lots (impacting spending on durable goods) and higher commodity prices (impacting residential investment). The Delta variant, which surged early in 3Q, did not help Personal Consumption Expenditure growth, which was only 1.6%. Of course, the GDP report is a backward-looking report and not the only data point the market considers. Elsewhere, the Labor Department reported that initial unemployment claims fell to the lowest level since the start of the pandemic. We look for GDP growth to rebound in the quarters ahead.

What happened to the September sell-off? A month ago, the S&P 500 was in the process of falling off all-time highs (ATHs) set early in September. From the ATH of 4,537 on 9/2/21, the '500' fell to the 4,350s on 9/21/21; staged what would be a failed rally to just under 4,450 on 9/24/21; and then made twin lows right around 4,300 on 9/30/21 and 10/4/21.

This edition features opportunities in the great outdoors; a smart but pricey water play; sustainable air travel; and notes from Align, Tesla, and Conagra.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks insider trading and institutional ownership. Form 13-Fs have now come in from 2Q21. We review the 13Fs of major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings, among others. Activist investing has evolved in and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of Activist investors, according to Vickers.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

GE was formed through the combination of two companies in 1892, including one with historical ties to American inventor Thomas Edison. Today, GE is a global leader in air travel, precision health, and in the energy transition. The company is known for its differentiated technology and its massive industrial installed base of equipment sprawled throughout the world. That installed base most notably includes aerospace engines, gas and steam turbines, onshore and offshore wind turbines, as well as medical diagnostic and mobile equipment. GE earns most of its profits on the service revenue of that equipment, which is generally higher-margin. The company is led by former Danaher alum Larry Culp who is leading a multi-year turnaround of the storied conglomerate based on Lean principles.

Stocks rose on Wednesday morning amid positive earnings reports and strong housing market data, as investors awaited the Fed's policy statement and press conference this afternoon. The National Association of Realtors said that its pending home sales index rose by 16.6% to 116.1 in June, above the Reuters consensus forecast. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 1.0%. Crude oil traded near $41 per barrel, while gold rose $5 to $1949 per ounce.

Reopening Hopes are the Latest Leg in Stock Recovery

There are some questions about divergences that simply need to be asked more often. Will a momentum divergence work? When it doesn't work, what does that mean? Can we forecast when they won't work?

Tepid 4Q Earnings Wrap a Lackluster Year for Profits

Is it possible that market breadth is so good that it's bad? Absolutely! It's called being overbought from an internal standpoint -- and sometimes leads to a quick and dirty reset to the downside. But we also can rephrase this. "Is it possible that market breadth is so bad, that it's good?" Certainly! It's called a washout -- and usually is associated with an intermediate- to longer-term bottom. In a bull market, we'll take strong market-breadth statistics over not so strong any day. What's giving us pause is that the largest sector, Technology, is again leading in early 2020 and is about as extended internally as it can get.

Stocks rose on Wednesday morning amid positive earnings reports and strong housing market data, as investors awaited the Fed's policy statement and press conference this afternoon. The National Association of Realtors said that its pending home sales index rose by 16.6% to 116.1 in June, above the Reuters consensus forecast. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 1.0%. Crude oil traded near $41 per barrel, while gold rose $5 to $1949 per ounce.