The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

All of the major U.S. stock indices are higher at midday on Tuesday, albeit modestly so. Investors are mulling over some fresh economic data in the form of durable goods orders and consumer confidence. Orders for durable goods rebounded in February, up 1.4% on the back of increases in transportation equipment and machinery orders. Turning to consumer confidence, The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for March printed at 104.7 compared to a revised 104.8 in February. But the so-called 'expectations index' dropped to 73.8 from 76.3 a month ago. That suggests that consumers are less optimistic in the short term. Crude oil has turned slightly lower as of midday, while gold is essentially on a flat line.

The Federal Reserve wrapped up its latest Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday and, as expected, held the current federal funds rate steady at 5.25%-5.50%. The fed funds rate remains at its highest level since 2000 and is above the long-term average of 4.4%. This is the Fed's plan, of course: keep rates high to push inflation lower. In the meantime, inflation has indeed been on a downward trek. The latest core CPI reading was 3.8%, down from 9.1% in July 2022, and the latest core PCE Price Index reading was 2.8%. Yet despite the progress, both are still well above the Fed's target of 2.0%, and the slope of the downward trajectory has flattened out lately. Those are potential problems for a central bank that watched while inflation got out of hand in 2020-2021 and wants to rebuild its reputation as an effective inflation fighter. After this latest meeting, the Fed released its Summary of Economic Projections, which includes its "dot plot" forecasts of potential rate changes in the coming months. Chairman Powell and his colleagues remain on track with a plan to lower rates three times in 2024 and then potentially another three times in 2025. Ultimately, those moves are going to depend on the pace of decline in the inflation rate and any pronounced upward move in the unemployment rate. The good news is that the Fed is already ahead of the inflation curve, and the current real fed funds rate of 2.6% is above the historical average of 1.6%. Equity investors cheered the Fed's plans on Wednesday, lifting market averages to new all-time highs.

Stocks edged lower on Friday after briefly rising following a stronger-than-expected employment report. The Labor Department said that the U.S. economy added 199,000 payroll jobs in November, up from 150,000 in October and above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 185,000. The increase was driven in part by the return of workers following the UAW and Hollywood strikes. The unemployment rate fell to 3.7%, down from 3.9% in October and below the consensus forecast. The University of Michigan sentiment index increased to 69.4. The Dow rose 0.02%, while the S&P 500 was down 0.04%, and the Nasdaq was flat. Crude oil traded near $71 per barrel, while gold fell $22 to $2025 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

In this edition, Markel is no mini-Berkshire; Cigna eyes bigger slice of PBM pie; Gap's struggles; and Guidewire Software, WestRock, and Asbury Automotive Group.

Stocks were mixed on Friday morning. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 187,000 jobs were added in August, while the July nonfarm payroll was revised to 157,000. The unemployment rate rose to 3.8%, while expectations were for the rate to remain steady from July at 3.5%. Average hourly wages rose 0.24% in August, with service-producing wages accounting for the increase while goods-producing wages remained largely unchanged. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 500 was nearly breakeven, and the Nasdaq fell 0.3%. Crude oil traded at $85 per barrel, while gold was unchanged at $1966 per ounce.

The S&P 500 is up approximately 20% from its bear-market lows of 3577 on October 12, 2022. That's widely considered the end of a bear market and thus the beginning of a new bull market. What can investors expect going forward as (if?) a bull market begins? We have studied the 13 bull markets that have occurred since the end of World War II. On average, the S&P 500 gained 164% during these 12 periods, which averaged 57 months in duration. We also note that the recent bull markets have generated higher returns over longer periods of time. On average, the five bull markets since 1980 have seen stocks advance about 240% over a period of 70 months. And the bull market prior to the pandemic carried on for 11 years, during which stocks rose 500%. It is worth pointing out, though, that the 2009-2020 bull market began with stocks deeply depressed on valuation, whereas stocks are already a bit above fair value in the current market environment as interest rates are high and earnings growth has stalled. Even so, if rates head lower while earnings growth picks up and the economy can avoid a recession, then this new bull market could be off to a promising start.

Stocks rallied on Friday morning following the passage of the debt ceiling bill in the Senate late Thursday and a stronger-than-expected May employment report. The Labor Department said that the U.S. economy added 339,000 nonfarm payroll jobs last month, up from a revised 294,000 in April and well above the Reuters consensus forecast of 190,000. However, the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from 3.4%, and growth in average hourly earnings slowed slightly from April. The Dow rose 1.5%, the S&P 1.2%, and the Nasdaq 0.9%. Crude oil rose 2% to $71.50 per barrel, while gold fell $13 to $1983 per ounce.

In this edition, Crane cleared for takeoff; openings in apparel; CDMOs vital to health of healthcare industry; and Valero Energy, Pinterest, and Mirvac Group.

Stocks were mostly lower on Monday morning, led by the Communication Services and Utility sectors, as investors looked ahead to the next consumer price index report on Wednesday and the start of what is expected to be a difficult earnings season later this week. On Friday, investors will see the first 1Q earnings reports from major banks, including Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, and Citigroup. The Dow was flat, the S&P fell 0.4%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.6%. Crude oil fell slightly to $80 per barrel while gold fell $23 to $2003 per ounce.

Stocks rose on Wednesday morning, led by the Technology and Real Estate sectors, as investors weighed new housing market data and earnings reports from Micron Technology and Lululemon. The National Association of Realtors said that its pending home sales index rose 0.8% in February, the third straight monthly increase. The Reuters consensus had called for a decline of 2.3%. On the earnings front, Micron Technology rose 5%, despite weak fiscal 2Q results, on optimism about growing demand for memory for artificial intelligence applications. Lululemon shares also rose 14% following strong fiscal 4Q results and positive guidance. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 0.8%, and the Nasdaq 1.0%. Crude oil traded near $73.50 per barrel, while gold fell $2 to $1971 per ounce.

The big rally on Friday, January 6, took the S&P 500 (SPX) near to, but not above, the top of its 15-day range (between 3,764 and 3,908). The index did break out of a small triangle that started on December 21 and also bumped its head against the 50-day average. The SPX surged 2.3% for the day, while the Nasdaq popped 2.6%, and the Nasdaq 100 ripped higher by 2.8%. NYSE breadth was strong, with net advancers at 2,284. NYSE advancers/issues and advancing volume/volume was 84%.

Monday Tee Up: The Fed Takes Center Stage

Stocks fell on Monday morning, driven in part by concerns about the economic impact of anti-lockdown protests in China. Apple shares fell nearly 2% after Bloomberg reported that worker unrest at the Foxconn plant in Zhengzhou that manufactures iPhones could lead to a six-million unit shortfall in iPhone Pro production this year. The Dow fell 0.5%, the S&P 0.8%, and the Nasdaq 0.7%. Crude oil traded near $76 per barrel, while gold fell $7 to $1748 per ounce.

Stocks were higher Friday morning as the August jobs report showed the economy added 315,000 jobs, compared to the projected 300,000. However, the gain was far less than the 526,000 jobs added in July and the unemployment rate actually rose to 3.7%. Analysts had predicted the rate to stay flat, as the labor force participation rate jumped from 62.1% to 62.4%. The Dow rose 1.1%, the S&P 1.2%, and the Nasdaq was up 1.1%. Crude oil rose 2% to $88 per barrel, while gold rose $16 to $1726 per ounce.

Stocks fell sharply on Friday morning as a stronger-than-expected May employment report pointed to continued aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The Labor Department said that the U.S. economy added 390,000 payroll jobs in May, well above the consensus forecast of 325,000 though down from a revised 436,000 in April. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.6%, slightly above the consensus forecast of 3.5%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3%, in line with April but below the consensus forecast of 0.4% growth. The Dow fell 1.0%, the S&P 1.5%, and the Nasdaq 2.3%. Crude oil rose to $118.50 per barrel, while gold traded near $1864 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed in volatile trading on Thursday morning, a day after Wednesday's sharp selloff, as the S&P continued to approach bear-market levels. Cisco shares fell 13%, despite above-consensus earnings, after the company offered disappointing guidance for the current fiscal fourth quarter. Kohl's also cut its full-year sales and earnings guidance, though the shares rose more than 2% after dropping sharply in the retail selloff on Wednesday. The Dow fell 0.7%, the S&P fell 0.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.2%. Crude oil rose slightly to $110 per barrel, while gold rose $31 to $1847 per ounce.

With the latest pullback in stocks, the improved breadth indicators that developed during the rally in the back half of March have experienced some erosion. As we have been saying, breadth remains an intermediate- to longer-term concern for the market. In the S&P 500, 52% of stocks are above their 50-day average (all breadth data as of 4/18 close) from a recent high of 76%. Some 48% are above their 200-day, down from a recent peak of 61%. Generally, large market declines happen when this measure falls and stays below 45%.

Stocks fell on Wednesday morning, giving back some of their recent gains as investors weighed new GDP and employment data. The Commerce Department said that the U.S. economy expanded at a 6.9% annualized rate in 4Q, down from its prior estimate of 7.0% growth and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 7.1%. Payroll provider ADP said that U.S. private employers added 455,000 payroll jobs in March, down from a revised 486,000 in February but slightly above the consensus forecast of 450,000. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.7%. Crude oil rose 4% to $108.50 per barrel, while gold rose $21 to $1939 per ounce.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Linde Plc (LIN); Sysco Corp. (SYY); Target Corp (TGT); Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (VRTX) and the Focus List deletions are DuPont de Nemours Inc (DD); Zoetis Inc (ZTS); Lululemon Athletica inc. (LULU); Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN).

The stock market performed very well last week as Omicron concerns abated. Blue chips outperformed tech stocks by a slim margin, though both were up substantially. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 216 points, or 0.60%. The S&P 500 was up 0.95%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.73%. For the week, the DJIA was up 1,391 points, or 4.02%, the S&P 500 was up 3.82%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 3.61%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 17.53%, the S&P 500 is up 25.45%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 21.28%.

The stock market performed very well last week as Omicron concerns abated. Blue chips outperformed tech stocks by a slim margin, though both were up substantially. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 216 points, or 0.60%. The S&P 500 was up 0.95%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.73%. For the week, the DJIA was up 1,391 points, or 4.02%, the S&P 500 was up 3.82%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 3.61%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 17.53%, the S&P 500 is up 25.45%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 21.28%.

We noted last week that long-term measures of market breadth remain supportive of higher stock prices, while intermediate-term breadth has improved and is neutral/mildly bullish. And then along came the new coronavirus variant to knock the market off its pins.

This edition features sportswear in the pandemic; SPACs and investment banks; seatmaker Adient; and notes from Merck and new coverage GDS Holdings and Paychex.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

This edition features edge computing; utilities' role in green energy; AIG's valuation; and notes from RH, SEI Investments, and Lululemon.

Stocks fell on Thursday after briefly rising following new weekly employment data. The Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 310,000 for the week ended September 4, down from 345,000 a week earlier and below the consensus forecast of 335,000. Continuing claims fell to 2.783 million, down from 2.805 million a week earlier but slightly above consensus. However, by afternoon, stocks began to decline on rising COVID-19 Delta variant concerns. This is the fourth day in a row that the Dow and S&P 500 have fallen, while the Nasdaq fell for the second consecutive day. The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil fell slightly to nearly $70 per barrel, while gold traded near $1796 per ounce.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) broke key chart support at $65 last Thursday and fell to a corrective low of $62 on Friday, one of our targets and the lowest level since May. It's possible that oil was in a three-wave ABC decline with the A and B waves completed. If wave C equals wave A, the pattern would target the $62 region. This week, WTI has been very strong, popping to $67.75 on Tuesday or 9% in two days. It looks like crude has completed a false breakdown, which makes it very likely that the correction is over.

In prior commentary, we discussed the relative strength of the Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and the weakness in small- and mid-cap stocks. The S&P 500 is in the middle, beating the little guys but trailing the higher-beta indices. The SPXEW (the equal-weight S&P 500) peaked in early May and has been flat ever since. Since early June, the S&P 500 has beaten the SPXEW consistently.

Argus has published its latest Portfolio Selector, which features its popular Focus List. Each month, Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, surveys the team of Argus Research industry analysts for their timeliest recommendations out of the company's fundamental universe of over 500 stocks. The Focus List typically includes 30 stocks: turnover is high, as Director of Research Kelleher typically adds three or four new stocks per month. Below are the latest additions, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

Stocks rose on Thursday as investors weighed new employment and manufacturing data. The Institute for Supply Management said that its national factory index fell to 60.6 in June, down from 61.2 in May and below the Reuters consensus forecast. First-time jobless claims fell to 364,000, a new pandemic-era low and below the consensus forecast. However, continuing claims rose from the prior week to 3.469 million and topped the consensus of 3.34 million. The data came ahead of the government's June employment report on Friday morning. The Reuters consensus calls for the addition of 700,000 new payroll jobs after an increase of 559,000 in May, and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 5.7%. The Dow rose 0.38%, the S&P 0.52%, and the Nasdaq 0.13%. Crude oil rose 2% to $75 per barrel, while gold rose $4 to $1776 per ounce.

With the summer driving season now here, and kids out of school, families on the go are faced with the highest gas prices in three years. Gas prices are moving higher as West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which hit an intraday high of $74.25/barrel on Wednesday, is at its highest point since October 2018 (when WTI peaked near $77). Gasoline futures hit $2.28 yesterday, the highest since May 2018 (when they peaked at $2.29). If the highs from 2018 are taken out, prices will be the highest since 2014.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks edged lower on Monday morning as investors continued to weigh Friday's May employment report. Alphabet shares fell slightly after the company settled a French antitrust case by agreeing to make changes in its advertising practices and paying a fine of 220 million euros. Over the weekend, members of the G7 agreed to support a global minimum corporate tax rate of at least 15%. The deal, which in its current form includes significant loopholes, will now be subject to additional negotiations among G20 and OECD countries. The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.1%. Crude oil traded near $69 per barrel, while gold rose $4 to $1896 per ounce.

Stocks Inch to New Highs amid New Concerns

There are now more than 80 million Millennials, born between 1982 and 2000 and ranging in age from their early 20s to their late-30s. This generation is the largest in history - bigger than even the Baby Boomers. Yet despite their size, and according to our research, Millennials currently account for 25% of total U.S income - some $3.1 trillion in direct annual purchasing power. Millennials are already coveted by marketers, even though their annual average income is 40% below the spending levels of the generation ahead of them (Gen X) and 30% below the spending levels of Baby Boomers, who are slowing down. But as Millennials rise into their peak earning years, their earnings are expected to grow.

Stocks fell last week, with a final drop on Friday as hopes for a stimulus plan fizzled. The details, rather than the size of the deal, are the sticking points. A troubling initial UE claims report also weighed on sentiment. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a win of 47 points, or 0.16%, as DIS shares rallied. The S&P 500 fell 4 points, or 0.13%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 28 points or 0.23%. Last week, the Dow was down 0.6%, the S&P 500 was down 1.0%, and the Nasdaq was down 0.7%. For the year-to-date, the DJIA is up 5.3%. The S&P is up 13.4%, and the Nasdaq remains in front with a gain of 38.0%. Over the past 52 weeks, the Dow is up 6.8%, the S&P 500 is up 15.6%, and the Nasdaq is up 41.7%.