Why it's Biden's race to lose

Why it's Biden's race to lose

Video Transcript

RICK NEWMAN: From Yahoo Finance, this is "Electionomics." I'm Rick Newman.

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: I'm Alexis Christoforous. Welcome to another edition of "Electionomics." So glad you can join us. Today, we're going to talk about the White House's response to the COVID-19 pandemic and what we might expect from the Trump administration as we inch ever closer to Election Day in November.

Joining us for this discussion is Ben Colton. He is senior researcher at Beacon Policy Advisors. Ben, it's so good to have you here with us. And I want to begin with President Trump's road trip that he's on at the moment, traveling around to different cities.

It seems like he's sort of on a campaign tour, if you will, trying to sell to the country the idea that this economy is bouncing back, even though we saw simultaneously, you know, are trying to reopen economies during this pandemic. And he's really largely leaving this latest stimulus package up to Congress. Do you think, from your perspective, that that's a smart move by President Trump?

BEN COLTON: Well, his message of kind of macroeconomic resurgence and hope can be a powerful message with voters. I mean, we saw the man from Hope, Arkansas was able to captivate voters amid a struggling economy to win an election in '92. And hope and change won the day with the onset of the financial crisis in 2008.

I guess what I'd say is that Trump's version of hope is a little bit different than Clinton and Obama's. And it's almost his hope is in a biblical sense. Like, Trump repeatedly refers to the coronavirus as a great and powerful plague, but as he says, America will rise from the death and destruction and become greater than ever before.

And you know, Trump is one for theatrics. And he's almost like making a remake of the 1956 movie, "The Ten Commandments." And instead of Charlton Heston playing Moses, he is the one that's taking that role. And in doing that--

RICK NEWMAN: [INAUDIBLE] back the seas.

BEN COLTON: Yes, exactly. He'd love to be Charlton Heston in any way. And it's kind of his way of kind of deflecting blame for the coronavirus, pivoting towards the economy and playing towards his 2016 mantra that I alone can fix it. Now will his gambit work? I mean, it's too early to tell.

I mean, interestingly, Trump does do very well with voters when it says performance of the economy, he outperforms Biden. Where Biden outperforms Trump, when it comes to who's better-- can combat the coronavirus. So if voters are more focused on rebuilding the economy than the coronavirus outbreak or the re-emergence in the fall, I think that's more fertile ground for Trump.

But of course, you know, I still think Trump will struggle to penetrate that kind of hope message of that economic survival. And a big reason why is that Trump, you need to have trust, the hope that you're selling. And Trump doesn't have that trust right now with the American voters. And so I think that's something that's going to be very hard to kind of pierce through the American minds, at least for now.

RICK NEWMAN: Yeah, I'm one of those people who thinks Trump has actually done a terrible job, just in terms-- just in the standard ways you would measure leadership. He has not taken responsibility. He has deferred to basically everybody else, let Congress pass the bill, let the governors handle their response, even for things that really should be the federal government's job.

But his approval rating for handling the crisis is still in around the mid to high 40s. I'm surprised it's not lower. Now maybe I'm the one who's out of step with the Americans, saying, no, you need to get behind the president on this. Do you think-- does his approval rating for handling the crisis-- let's say it's around 45%-- does that make sense to you?

BEN COLTON: It does, actually. And--

RICK NEWMAN: Who are the 45%, do you think?

BEN COLTON: Well, historically, I think there is always a rally around the flag effect in times of crisis. And we have saw that with 9/11. We saw that with the killing of Osama bin Laden. We saw that with Jimmy Carter and the Iran Contra hostage situation. And there's just a natural effect when there's a crisis to rally around leadership.

And so we saw that with Trump. But remarkably, or unsurprisingly, Trump's bump was much smaller than historically in other rally around the flag effects. And compared to other world leaders, he was also kind of in the middle of the ground. And [AUDIO OUT] a remarkable decrease of that bump, and that's kind of really reciprocated. And he's kind of back to that area of maybe 45%, mid to low 40s, where he was before the election.

So I think people were giving him the benefit of the doubt. But even when people are giving him the benefit of the doubt, his general election poll and against Biden remained kind of where he was all before the COVID-19 outbreak.

RICK NEWMAN: Is it-- does that suggest that-- and there is a variance in the polls between the portion who say they approve or disapprove of Trump and then when you say would you vote for Biden or Trump. So there does seem to be a small portion of people who say I approve of President Trump, but I might rather vote for Joe Biden in November. Am I getting that right, do you think?

BEN COLTON: That's exactly right. And you can see, like, his economic approval ratings for Trump has always been-- like, right now, it's, like, around plus 10. But there's a lot of people who approve of Trump, the man who says he can build the economy and stuff like that. But they disapprove of Trump, the man himself, and Trump, the president.

And so if the election was based on just, like, his economic approval numbers, then he'd be in very strong shape. But given that he's underperforming those numbers, like 10% or so, and that job approval, like, favorability ratings are more reflective of how voters will choose who they'll vote for, it's-- there's a lot of discounting for a lot of these voters, that they still don't want to vote for Trump.

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: Hey, Ben. There is this-- I don't know if you had a chance to look at it, but Edelman, the PR firm, is out with its trust barometer. They do it every year. And they had to update their trust barometer recently. I mean, they did it in January. But because of the pandemic, they reupped it.

And it had found that globally most people right now have shifted from trusting their company and their CEO more than the government. Now most people are actually trusting the government during this pandemic than they are their own CEOs.

But when you get a little granular and look at the US, here, according to this report, more people put trust in local government versus federal government. What does that tell you about the way people might be viewing Trump in this election year, given those results?

BEN COLTON: Well, what I'd say is that, you know, local government is more focused on that what it is, governance, and trying to, like, implement different guidelines and having these stay-at-home orders or just kind of being the ones who are really doing the kind of the nuts and bolts, while Trump, on the national level, it's much more politicized.

And so in this kind of moment of national crisis and they're looking for someone who's, like, being able to state the facts and being able to have a clearer and cohesive message that doesn't necessarily revolve around deflecting blame or other areas like that, they're looking for safety, they're looking for comfort. They're seeing that in kind of local governments, whether it's on the local level or the state level.

And you're seeing kind of just the dissonance of, like, who voters trust more to handle the coronavirus outbreak. By a two to one margin, they say governors more than Trump.

RICK NEWMAN: And so Trump is facing some things he cannot control here. You know, the virus itself is not his fault, obviously. And to some extent, he cannot control what people do if they, you know, pay attention to lockdown orders and things like that, or they go out. Of the things President Trump can control, what do you think he can do to improve his re-election odds?

BEN COLTON: Well, I think that's always kind of the big question, is what can he do to kind of change the barometer that this Trump, compared to going back through Harry Truman, has had the most stable approval rating out of any-- any presidents.

RICK NEWMAN: But also lowest, on average, right?

BEN COLTON: At the lowest, on average, but also the most stable, which is remarkable, even through impeachment, through the government shutdown, through all these different kind of crises in the 24/7 news cycle. There's been little that's been penetrating.

So what Trump is doing is what he thinks he's playing to his strength, which is a message of the economy and the message of kind of what he did in 2016, which he ran as kind of insurgent outsider, saying, I alone can fix it. Let's make America great again. It's kind of retooling that to the current COVID-19 crisis. And you know, there's all this skepticism that maybe that-- that election in 2016 cannot be the same framework for 2020.

At the same time, it's hard to underestimate or doubts the, you know, the war chest that Trump has in terms of money for his re-election campaign, to hammer down this issue-- message, but also, that he has much greater visibility than-- than Joe Biden right now. And right now, that's actually benefiting Biden. But when we get into the end of the summer and the fall, if Trump is the one that's kind of crafting the message, is there, like, the 15% of Americans who are still kind of thinking who they'd vote for, and they're not kind of set in one silo of Republican or Democrat, if they're seeing Trump as the one who's kind of more out there, who's having a better economic vision, that may be a way to kind of sway some of these undecided voters.

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: You know, Ben, on the campaign trail and throughout his presidency, China has been a target for President Trump. And right now, sentiment towards China in this country is not very good. You know, many are talking about, where did this virus originate? Was it-- did it escape from the Wuhan lab in China, although they deny it there locally? Could that actually play in-- to-- to Trump in a positive way, the fact that he continues to value targeting China? I mean, it worked for him on the campaign trail. Could it work for him now, given, you know, where this virus seems to have come from?

BEN COLTON: It's a double-edged sword for Trump. On the one hand, that was one of his defining messages of kind of America first, that taking away from like China and bringing jobs back and especially kind of with trade negotiations. And sentiment among Americans, both Democrat and Republicans, have grown more anti-China. But then, Trump, you know, as you've seen throughout-- throughout the year with a COVID-19, and he's saying that Xi Jinping is doing a good job, and he trusts China, and now he's kind of switching back, it's he's kind of conflicted.

At the one hand, he wants to bash China. He sees that as politically good. But actually following through on that bashing is something that he is worried about if China retaliates. And if he retaliates, they can go against kind of the phase one trade deal that they did. And it can make kind of life harder to some of his constituencies, like farmers. So I think it's-- right now, it's much more bluster than actual follow-through, even if there is bipartisan calls for action against China. But I think Trump, right now, just sees this more as a political wedge in his messaging than actual legislation or actual governing.

RICK NEWMAN: This makes me think of Trump's statements about China earlier this year. And at one point, he said he thought China was doing a very good job of handling the virus-- which makes me think of all the negative ads we're going to see going both ways. We're already seeing some of them, putting together all the things Trump has said on the virus-- it's going to-- it will disappear by April, and all of those things. Will negative ads help anybody in this race? Is anybody-- I mean, or is this just going to be a sort of a war of attrition, where it makes everybody look bad and changes no voters minds?

BEN COLTON: Well, 2016, we saw this was a race to the bottom. And both Clinton and Trump had their worst favorability ratings out of any candidate in general election history. But Trump, being kind of the outsider, he won the vote of people who disapproved of both Trump and Clinton by a 17-point margin. This time, actually, Trump is more popular than he was in 2016. And additionally, Biden's more popular than Clinton.

So there is going to be tried to be a kind of-- for Trump to make this more of a choice election than a referendum. But there may be limited ability to kind of really reinforce some negative qualities about Biden like he could with Clinton. And like, we're seeing right now, with voters who disapprove of both Trump and Biden, Biden's actually winning this vote by at least 30 points. And it's a smaller market-- it's a smaller voter group than in 2016, but just reflects how hard it's going to be to cast either Trump or Biden in a negative light that's more than or equal to what was in 2016.

RICK NEWMAN: So these are like the hold-your-nose voters, who don't like either one, but they figure it's their duty to vote, so they have to vote for somebody. And Biden actually holds an edge with these people?

BEN COLTON: Exactly. And 2016, I think a lot of these people were Republicans who did not like Trump at all and his kind of personal qualities, put abhor Clinton even more. And so the kind of held their nose. And since Trump was elected, a lot of the Republicans have really gotten onboard with the Trump campaign. And so what we're seeing now is maybe there are some people who are hesitant from the progressive base of the Democratic party, maybe Bernie supporters or Elizabeth Warren supporters, who don't really like Biden, who he is, but they're saying, you know, he is the lesser of two evils. And I think a lot of those voters are coming into the fold.

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: You know, Ben, I'm wondering if one way Trump could help himself is by maybe interjecting on this fourth stimulus package and having some infrastructure be part of it. Because, you know, throughout his presidency, again, and on the campaign trail, and then up until his presidency now, we haven't really-- he's talked a lot about infrastructure, but we haven't really gotten anything meaningfully-- meaningful done in that area. Do you think that that's one area where maybe it's a bipartisan thing, where he could actually come out looking really good if he's able to get that done?

BEN COLTON: It would. I mean, ideally, for Trump and for McConnell's job security in November, they'd want to push something that's like a big spending package, that kind of puts Americans to work, and shows that they are getting things done. But for Trump, follow-through is always the issue. He may have a message of hope, but when it comes to governing, all his governing strategies are based on hope, as well. And that's not an effective governing strategy, that he'll maybe send out a tweet, or he'll say let's do a $2 trillion infrastructure plan.

But he just has no follow-through, and he is not willing to exert the political capital to bring Republicans on board, when Republicans, especially Mitch McConnell, and several other in the Republican caucus are hesitant for these big spending packages that are ancillary to kind of COVID-19. And so there may be a very much kind of like a bipartisan hope, as we've seen throughout Trump's tenure of infrastructure weeks. But we remain skeptical that there's actually-- there's actually a solution in the middle to come up with infrastructure.

RICK NEWMAN: Could we Just tell her our audience who may not know, infrastructure week is like an inside joke in Washington, right?

BEN COLTON: Yes.

RICK NEWMAN: Because the first infrastructure week was-- and we're going to talk about, you know, an infrastructure bill as if we're actually going to legislate it. But then nothing happened. And then there wasn't-- the Trump White House actually said there was another infrastructure week. And I don't how many times they've done that now. But now it's just kind of a running joke.

Let me ask you about the stimulus that is still yet to come. Because I know [INAUDIBLE] has done a lot of work on this. So to my mind, there are a few big ideas. And I would just like to get you to handicap what you think is the likelihood some of these could happen. So one of the biggest is aid to states in cities that are just seeing their tax revenues plunge. I think that's fairly likely.

Then there's this Republican priority of a liability immunity for businesses. That seems quite tricky. And there's talk that-- I don't know if this-- either party is pushing this, but the Congress should put forward a lot more money for a national testing program. So three things right there, and then any others that I'm missing, but what do you think are the odds of those things happening?

BEN COLTON: Yeah. So I think, when it comes to state and local funding and the liability shield that Republicans are asking for, I think both are very likely to be included in the phase four deal. And I'm taking that from that both-- Pelosi has explicitly said that's a red line, the state local government. And McConnell has said that it's a red line for the liability shield. And I believe that, you know, despite all the kind of bluster and public posturing right now, both Pelosi and McConnell do want to get a deal done.

For Pelosi, it's all about CARES II, and it's about what she can get in CARES I and the Phase 3.5 deal. For McConnell, it's about kind of ensuring confidence and reopening the economy. And he believes, like, a liability shield is necessary, especially for kind of the business constituency. And so I think you see these public posturing, but once we get into the negotiations, there will definitely be some good faith room for-- for movement there.

And in terms of kind of other aspects, like a testing program, we did see some funding for testing in Phase 3.5. We saw kind of Scott Gottlieb and Andy Slavitt come out with about a $50-billion program for contact tracing to be in this next Phase 4 deal. And I think that's very possible. And so I think, when we think about, like, what can be the contours of a Phase 4 deal, besides kind of like the red lines of both state and local aid and kind of the liability shield, it's what, you know, Democrats and Republicans, the leadership can get support of from other members of Congress and then be able to kind of wedge that into the negotiation process.

And right now, there's a lot of uncertainty there. Pelosi wants to kind of think big, and McConnell wants to think small and keep it narrow. But once kind of the dam is broken, and they're kind of trading one idea for the other, it's going to certainly add up to a hefty Phase 4 deal.

RICK NEWMAN: And it's not hard to imagine a lot of workers saying, this is totally unfair to us. You're saying, we have to go to work, and if we get sick, there's-- we have no recourse. So is that a liability for Republicans?

BEN COLTON: I mean, that's kind of the fine line that they have to walk. There was some hesitancy about making this big agenda item, because we've seen as being pro big business. And you're already seeing with the stimulus packages so far that there's a kind of backlash against the stimulus and outrage how big businesses have benefited over, like, small businesses. And so it's kind of a fine line that they have to walk, but they're kind of arguing that, right now, it's important for health care workers, it's important for health care providers. It's important for small businesses to be able to confidently reopen, that they're not worried about some ancillary or some superfluous lawsuit that, you know, wasn't under their control.

And so it is going to be a kind of a war on messaging. And I think there is, like-- there is an outcome here where there's a narrowly tailored liability shield that relates to just the, kind of, coronavirus and COVID-19 outbreak. And they're talking about, if there is gross negligence, or however you define that term, then a lot of these companies will still be liable. But it's certainly-- it's a tough-- it's a tough-- it's a tough policy to necessarily defend against, when Democrats are saying that they're focused on workers, and they're focused on helping the little people, and Republicans are more focused on kind of big business.

RICK NEWMAN: And by definition, Nancy Pelosi and the House Democrats would have to approve that. So they're going to have a lot of control over the nature of that shield, right?

BEN COLTON: Sure, they will. But at the same time, McConnell is going to have a lot of-- have a lot of authority over what the state and local government looks like. You know, he's saying that they're kind of sticking to, like, oh, maybe we can just stick with the $150 billion that was already allocated, but just open up the restrictions a bit. Or maybe there will be a little more money. But Pelosi is asking for a trillion dollars.

So it's going to be this-- a game between two master negotiators in Congress, and Pelosi and McConnell. And Pelosi certainly does have some from some leverage here over McConnell over shaping this liability shielding. You're already seeing a lot of business groups saying, we want this to be very temporary and specifically tailored to the coronavirus. And so they're not kind of thinking about greater tort reform and that effort.

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: Hey, Ben, what about more help for small businesses? You know, we had first round money, I think, disappeared. And I think it was less than two weeks. And at the time of this taping here of Electionomics, it looks like the money is starting to run out on the second one, as well. Do you that the fourth stimulus package will include more assistance for small businesses? And what might that look like?

BEN COLTON: I do. I think there has been a bit of a backlash in damage control by Republicans about kind of how the-- how the Paycheck Protection Program has been implemented. But they are not in a position to abandon it, given that this is something that they were kind of defending. And if they are seen as abandoning it, it seems like they're abandoning small businesses. So we're already seeing, kind of, Republicans like Marco Rubio or John Barrasso saying that this will be a high priority and kind of face forward, especially if the money is about to run out.

And what it could look like, it's still kind of being debated. I think Republicans would be just fine saying, OK, let's just add another infusion into the Paycheck Protection Program, maybe another $300 billion or so. But Democrats are saying, let's have an automatic stabilizer, so we don't have to keep going back to the well each time the funding runs dry, but there'll be like an automatic approval.

And then there's more further talk about maybe changing what kind of the guidelines that the IRS and Treasury implemented, that maybe seems-- may seems like a little overly onerous, onerous for small businesses. So one aspect is the requirement that 75% of the loan be for payroll and for 25% other overhead costs. And for companies like restaurants or other areas, that have lower labor costs and higher rents, and other areas, they think that this is not a good focus for them and needs to be kind of rejiggered.

And then another issue that's being brought up by members of the House Ways and Means Committee, as well as Senate Finance, is that a lot of this aid cannot be used to kind of deduct against your taxes and that, given that this is then kind of blunting the benefits for these small businesses, they want to make sure that, you know, this aid can be used as deductions and on their tax liability.

RICK NEWMAN: Ben, I'm going to put you on the spot here. By the end of October of this year, we're only a few days from the election. What's your guess about the political environment and the economic environment? Do you think it will favor Trump's re-election or Biden's election?

BEN COLTON: I see this as, right now, a coin toss. But Biden is operating with the lucky penny in that coin-- in that coin toss, in the sense that, you know, that this is election between Biden and Trump. And it's an election that's a referendum on Trump. And it's been consistently, even before the COVID-19 crisis, that Trump was trailing Biden and is trailing with him by kind of mid to high single digits.

And the issue for Trump is that he can say or do as much as we want. But Americans are very much inured into what they view as who Trump is and what they like and they don't like about them. And it's clear that a majority of America does not want Trump to be re-elected, and Biden is-- seems to be the kind of that generic Democratic alternative that's kind of acceptable.

In terms of the economy, you know, there is talks about being a V-shaped recovery, a W-shaped recovery, a U-shaped recovery. And right now, there's just-- there's a lot of risk that we're not prepared for, A, a continuing flare-up of the coronavirus, and B, a re-emergence of it in the fall. And when we don't have the systems in place, like contact-- or contact tracing or testing, other things like that, we're very, you know-- have a high risk of having to shut down again and be in the state of fear and confusion that leads to a lack of confidence for consumers and a lack of confidence for businesses to remain open. So I think there's a lot of downside from the hope that, kind of, Trump is trying to propel onto voters for his reelection process and the state of the economy.

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: So to your mind, Ben, is this Joe Biden's race to lose at this point?

BEN COLTON: I-- I think it is. I'd say that, for Joe Biden, he's done best when he's kind of been in the periphery. But he was outspent in the Democratic primary, but he still won. He's being outspent and outshined by Trump right now, but he's still very much high in kind of the-- his pulling.

Of course, a lot can change right now. But Biden-- and when you look back in history, he's at the strongest position of a challenger against an incumbent since FDR was facing Herbert Hoover in 1932. And you know, I think Trump does have something of the floor, in terms of that he will have the support of at least 40% of the country. And he does better in a lot of these battleground states. But it's hard to say that Biden is not kind of at least on the better advantage than Trump. And that certainly could grow as kind of the coronavirus and the economy linger on.

RICK NEWMAN: Maybe Biden should just stay in his basement.

BEN COLTON: Oh yeah, I think it's been one of the better-- the less visibility, the greater for Biden.

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: We're going to leave it there, guys. And I want to thank Ben Colton, senior researcher of Beacon Policy Advisors for being with us today-- some great insights there. And thanks to all of you for checking out this podcast. Be sure to follow me at AlexisTVNews.

RICK NEWMAN: And me, @rickjnewman. And Ben?

BEN COLTON: Oh, it's Ben underscore Colton.

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: All right, well, thanks a lot, guys. And be sure to rate and review what you just saw and heard. And we'll see you next time.

RICK NEWMAN: Bye.