Buy Atlanta Braves, skip energy stocks: Good Buy or Goodbye
In the latest edition of "Good Buy or Goodbye," Boyar Intrinsic Value Research President Jonathan Boyer explains what stocks he is buying and avoiding right now.
Boyar likes Atlanta Braves Holdings (BATRK) for a few reasons. One is, given how few Wall Street analysts cover the stock, it "gives you opportunities for people willing to do their own homework to really outperform and find those diamonds in the rough." He also thinks the stock has an attractive valuation and that the company will be sold in the coming years.
Boyar is less of a fan of energy stocks. There are a few reasons why: their reliance on oil prices, the sector's recent outperformance, and overall investor optimism about the stocks.
Click here to see more "Good Buy or Goodbye" or you can watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance Live here.
Video Transcript
[THEME MUSIC]
JULIE HYMAN: It's a big, noisy universe of stocks out there. Welcome to Good Buy or Goodbye. Brought to you by E-Trade from Morgan Stanley. Our goal, to help cut through that noise to navigate the best moves for your portfolio. It might get tricky to know when to get in on unusual market moves. We're here to let you in on ways to play performance outliers.
I'm here with Jonathan Boyar. Come on down, Jonathan. And let's talk about your buy stock, which is one we've talked to you a little bit about before. That is the Atlanta Braves. So let's go through your investment case here on why you think people should be buying. But we also want to talk about that this is a small cap name. And in general, you think there are some opportunities within small caps here
JONATHAN BOYAR: Yes. First, thank you for having me. And to talk about small caps, they've been a laggard over the last five years. They've been in a bear market over the past two. And this is a historical anomaly. Since if you look at since 2000, the S&P and the Russell basically have performed evenly.
So this has been-- if you believe in mean reversion-- the Russell should come back with a vengeance, and that's what we believe for a variety of reasons. It's also the cheapest area of the market, especially compared to the Magnificent Seven.
JULIE HYMAN: Yeah, there are definitely a lot of people who have been talking to us about small caps as well over the past month or so. So let's then get to the one or one of the stocks that you think is a good buy in this environment. Because we are seeing that the Russell 2000, to your point, over time has been an outperformer, but has lagged more recently. So let's get to Atlanta Braves here.
You say, first of all, there's not-- we've talked about this sort of hidden gem thing before, hidden assets before. Atlanta Braves is not necessarily a stock that we talk about very often.
JONATHAN BOYAR: Yeah. It's definitely not one that you talk about daily or monthly. It's a stock that is not widely covered by Wall Street. I believe there's only two or three sell side analysts who cover it. You compare that to the Magnificent Seven, where the average stock in the Magnificent Seven has 47 sell side analysts covering it. So that gives you opportunities for people willing to do their own homework to really outperform and find those diamonds in the rough.
JULIE HYMAN: Right. Exactly. And let's also talk about the valuation. That's something we talk about frequently. The stock is down what about 10%, I believe, this year.
JONATHAN BOYAR: Yeah. The stock is attractively valued if you look at it compared to its Forbes value. And many of these things when they trade in a transaction, go significantly above their Forbes value. And you're getting a lot of things for free like the battery, which is their real estate development that they own. And it's right now, it's a $37 stock. We think it's a company that's probably in a sale worth $55 a share or so.
JULIE HYMAN: OK, well, and you referred to it a couple of times. And that's kind of the number three maybe most important one that you think that it's going to be sold.
JONATHAN BOYAR: Yes, John Malone-- it's controlled by media mogul John Malone, who is simplifying his empire. And we have reason to believe over the next couple of years, he's done things to make us believe this that the Braves will be sold. And if Mark Cuban can sell the Mavericks, he certainly can sell the Atlanta Braves.
JULIE HYMAN: OK. So as always, we'd like to ask people what could go wrong with this thesis? I would think that if it doesn't get sold, that's one thing that could go wrong, you know. And we're also talking about the valuations can fluctuate. So even if it does get sold, maybe it won't get sold at the price that you think.
JONATHAN BOYAR: Exactly. People may say that you're in a bubble of market valuations for sports teams. I don't believe that to be the case, but that is definitely a risk, as well as regional sports networks. A lot of them are in a lot of trouble due to cord cutting, so that's certainly a risk to the thesis.
JULIE HYMAN: Now, we should mention for this goodbye that you do hold the stock.
JONATHAN BOYAR: Yes.
JULIE HYMAN: Right So just to disclose that. And then there is an area of the market that for you is a goodbye, and you don't even look at it. It's not even an area of the market that you consider, which I find fascinating. So let's talk about it. Your goodbye is energy companies, kind of broadly here. And here we see the XLE, that's the energy ETF from 2020 to 2023. And we're going to get to that a little more detail in just a second. But the reasons that you don't like energy companies writ large.
JONATHAN BOYAR: Yeah. We look at companies as if we're buy-- a stock is if we're buying the entire company. And I wouldn't want to own a business that's entirely dependent on the price of commodity that's outside of our control in order for it to be profitable. So I can't predict whether a barrel of oil is going to trade at. So I don't want to own the stock.
JULIE HYMAN: OK. Fair enough. And then we were just talking about that current outperformance that we have been seeing in the group. That energy stocks have rocketed higher, pretty much since the beginning of the pandemic.
JONATHAN BOYAR: This is highly unusual. They have been the best performer by far of any of the get sectors since the market bottomed in 2020. But over the long-term, that certainly hasn't been the case.
JULIE HYMAN: Right. And more recently, we have seen them kind of roll over and start to deteriorate a little bit. Here's the 10-year period to your point of that underperformance.
JONATHAN BOYAR: Yeah, they're terrible businesses.
JULIE HYMAN: Yeah. And then lastly, you're cautious on the investor optimism that's out there.
JONATHAN BOYAR: I speak to a lot of value investors. They're all talking about how great energy stocks are, and these are great stocks to hold for the next 5 or 10 years. And I'm a contrarian by nature, and that makes me nervous.
JULIE HYMAN: OK. So you're just not looking there. But what could go right for these guys?
JONATHAN BOYAR: Oil keeps going up in price. They key performance begets performance. But I think over the long run, there will be mean reversion, both for small cap stocks and energy stocks.
JULIE HYMAN: Right. And so I think we made clear you're just not interested in looking at this group. You're not short them, but you're just not-- it's not an investment area that you like to consider. OK. Fair enough. So let's give a summary then of what you've laid out here today. Buy Atlanta Braves holdings on attractive valuations. Small caps, you think broadly are favorable place to be right now.
On the other side, you're saying avoid these energy-related names because you don't want to be subject to the vagaries of the commodity market. And you say it's unusual that it's been seeing outperformance right now. So I think that sums it up.
JONATHAN BOYAR: Exactly.
JULIE HYMAN: All right. Jonathan Boyar, thanks so much. Really appreciate it.
