Yahoo Finance Plus Markets plunged for the sixth consecutive day on Thursday, with coronavirus fears shaving over 1,100 points off the Dow. Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz Chief Economic Adviser, joined The Final Round to discuss his outlook for this market.
While the blank-check deals market reached new heights this week with Grab Holdings' record $40 billion merger, some lawyers and regulatory experts said the exuberance was unlikely to last as the U.S. securities watchdog steps up scrutiny of such deals. Southeast Asia's largest ride-hailing and food delivery firm on Tuesday clinched a merger with special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, Altimeter Growth Corp, paving the way for a U.S. listing and the biggest-ever blank-check company deal. The blockbuster merger underscores Wall Street's mania for the deals in which listed shells take private companies public, with a record $100 billion raised through initial public offerings (IPOs) in the United States this year.
Major global stock indexes scaled new peaks on Wednesday after upbeat U.S. and European earnings pointed to a strong recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, while the dollar dipped to three-week lows as Treasury yields held below recent highs. High-flying growth stocks declined on Wall Street, sending the benchmark S&P 500 and Nasdaq lower in afternoon trade, while underpriced value stocks rose, lifting the Dow to a new record. U.S. import prices increased more than expected in March, lifted by higher costs for petroleum products and tight supply chains in the latest data to show inflation is heating up as economies reopen.
The Coinbase IPO has captivated the markets. But one strategist says the company isn't worth anywhere near the $100 billion some say it is. Here's why.
(Bloomberg) -- China should build more pig farms in Xinjiang as its cotton industry is under threat from declining soil fertility, according to a government researcher, commenting after some international companies avoided fiber produced in the region over allegations of forced labor.Hog farming could become a pillar industry in the region and supply 10% of the nation’s output, up from 1% now, wrote Mei Xinyu, a think-tank researcher at the commerce ministry. Xinjiang already grows more than 80% of the country’s cotton, and some of those pig farms would replace fields sown to the fiber that have been degraded.The suggestion comes after the U.S. banned imports of textile products containing cotton from Xinjiang in protest over alleged ill-treatment of its ethnic Uighur Muslim minority, and several western countries slapped sanctions on China over the same issue.Cotton is the most profitable crop in the region, and rotation to other crops is not in the interests of growers and hard to achieve on a large scale, Mei said on the WeChat account of Beijing News, a government-run newspaper. The only feasible option is to build more hog farms, he said, and they can use local grain to feed the pigs or import supplies from neighboring countries.Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, a military-affiliated entity, and other groups have already started building several large-scale pig farms, which will increase output significantly in the next two years. In the meantime, animal waste from the farms could be used to boost soil fertility, which has been exhausted by extensive use of chemical fertilizer, said Mei.“The most desirable way to solve this problem is to raise pigs and grow cotton simultaneously, and return a large amount of manure from pig farms to the fields after treatment to enhance soil fertility and increase profits,” Mei said.China should expand hog farms in areas like Xinjiang and Heilongjiang, which are less population-intensive than the inland provinces like Sichuan, Hunan and Henan which dominate the country’s pork production, Mei said. Outbreaks of African swine fever that started in 2018 slashed hog herds by as much as half and sent meat imports spiraling to a record.(Updates with details from the report throughout)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
Taiwan said on Wednesday its chip companies will adhere to U.S. rules after Washington added seven Chinese supercomputing entities last week to an economic blacklist and after a Taipei-based chipmaker halted orders from one of the entities named. The U.S. Commerce Department said the seven Chinese entities were "involved with building supercomputers used by China's military actors, its destabilizing military modernisation efforts, and/or weapons of mass destruction programs." Companies or others listed on the U.S. Entity List are required to apply for licenses from the Commerce Department that face tough scrutiny when they seek permission to receive items from U.S. suppliers.
Gold may have risen following the release of the CPI data, but it was not because of concerns over inflation.
Gold fell on Wednesday as an uptick in U.S. Treasury yields weighed on bullion's appeal, while investors awaited speeches by several Federal Reserve officials in the wake of data showing higher inflation. Spot gold fell 0.3% to $1,739.00 per ounce, as of 10:45 a.m. EDT (1445 GMT). The uptick in bond yields seem to be "adding some very light pressure to the (gold) market," said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.
Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global Inc was set to be valued at more than $94 billion in a stock market debut on Wednesday that marked another milestone in the development of bitcoin and other digital assets. Coinbase's launch, done through a direct listing where no shares are sold ahead of the debut, marks a victory for digital currency advocates in a year that has seen a clutch of mainstream, top-tier firms dive into the space. Coinbase's listing is expected to accelerate that process by boosting awareness of digital assets among investors.
Stocks traded mixed Wednesday afternoon, with traders digesting a slew of earnings results from big banks that largely topped expectations. The Dow set a fresh record high as shares of Goldman Sachs advanced after the company reported better-than-expected quarterly results.
(Bloomberg) -- A massive troop buildup on the border with Ukraine has turned the once unthinkable idea of U.S. sanctions on Russian sovereign debt into a real possibility for investors.Yields on ruble bonds, known as OFZs, jumped to the highest level in more than a year last week and were edging higher again on Tuesday as the market watched deepening tensions between Moscow and Washington take another turn for the worse.“This makes OFZ sanctions significantly more likely,” said Paul McNamara, an emerging-markets investor at GAM Investments in London. He doesn’t expect a full-scale Russian offensive, but said “there are a lot of outcomes that are worse than the current situation.”The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden was already preparing more penalties on Russia over alleged election interference and hacking before the latest flareup in Ukraine. NATO joined the Group of Seven nations and the European Union on Tuesday in calling for Russia to de-escalate.The threat of OFZ sanctions, often dubbed the “nuclear option,” has been hanging over bondholders for years, but after several false alarms, most investors weren’t considering it a base case. That may now be changing.Analysts at JP Morgan Chase & Co. downgraded the ruble and Russian bonds last week, citing the escalating tensions and the risk that U.S. investors might close long positions on OFZs. The Finance Ministry has had to rely on state-run banks to meet demand at its latest debt auctions after a sale was canceled due to reduced appetite from foreign buyers.What’s Sparking Tension Between Russia and Ukraine?: QuickTakeThe Treasury Department warned in 2018 of global financial market turmoil if Russia’s sovereign debt market were sanctioned because of how deeply tied the Russian market is to global indexes.Since then the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, or Calpers, has cut all of its bond holdings in Russia. Foreigners have curbed their share of the total market to just 20% from about 35% last year as the Finance Ministry sold more debt to locals.Russian officials say the move wouldn’t cause much damage to Russia’s financial markets because local banks and non-U.S. investors would step in to replace those forced to sell. A move to ban U.S. banks from buying new issues of Russian Eurobonds in 2019 did little to dent the Kremlin’s access to foreign funding.An even harsher measure that has been mooted in Washington in the past would be to bar Russian banks from the international financial messaging system used for most international money transfers, a measure that has been used against Iran. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned last month that Russia needs to find alternatives to the system, known as SWIFT, to make itself less vulnerable.“If it goes to an outright military conflict, I wouldn’t exclude SWIFT sanctions, which would be really disruptive,” said Viktor Szabo, a money manager at Aberdeen Asset Management in London.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- The Indian rupee has turned into Asia’s worst-performing currency from being the best in the previous quarter. It’s poised for more losses as a resurgence in coronavirus cases to a record threatens to hamstring the economy.The rupee weakened past 75 per dollar for the first time in eight months this week. Federal Bank Ltd. expects it to fall further to 76 by year-end. The currency’s slide may be exacerbated by unwinding of short dollar positions against the rupee, which ICICI Bank Ltd. estimates has grown to $50 billion.The currency mayhem is playing out as India overtakes Brazil as the second-worst-hit Covid nation in the world. Stricter restrictions on movement across the country are reviving memories of last year when extended lockdowns squeezed demand and pushed the economy into its worst contraction in nearly seven decades.“Economic growth is going to get more impacted than what we are expecting,” said V Lakshmanan, head of treasury at Federal Bank Ltd. in Mumbai. “We are underplaying the impact of Covid.”The rupee slumped 2.6% against the dollar so far in April after falling 0.1% in the quarter ended March. It fared better than other Asian currencies in withstanding rising U.S. yields in the last three months thanks to a rare current-account surplus, economic recovery and heavy foreign inflows.Traders are concerned that the rupee’s tailwinds could start fading. Rising commodity prices may push the current-account into a deficit in the fiscal year that started in April, while the central bank’s quantitative easing announced last week is seen adding to the liquidity glut, worsening the rupee’s woes.However, Barclays Plc expects the Reserve Bank of India to defend the rupee using its massive foreign reserves.“The RBI will likely sell USD into this bid as this move is relatively outsized,” said Ashish Agrawal, head of FX and emerging markets macro strategy research. He expects the rupee to climb to 73 per dollar by year-end and sees the latest bout of weakness as a catchup to losses suffered by other emerging market currencies in March.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
Owning a house isn’t the only pathway to financial success and fulfillment.
(Bloomberg) -- Coinbase Global Inc.’s highly anticipated direct listing had touched off a frenzy in demand for all things crypto. A tumble shortly after its debut dented the euphoria.Bitcoin pulled back from an all-time high as the biggest U.S. crypto exchange tumbled to close down 14%. It opened at $381 a share in its direct listing shortly before 1:30 p.m. in New York and spiked as high as $429 in the first 10 minutes of trading before turning lower. It closed at $328.28. Bitcoin fell to its session low when Coinbase turned, before paring losses. It was trading around $63,160 as of 8:12 a.m. in Hong Kong.The listing is seen pushing crypto even more into the mainstream of investing, exposing legions of potential buyers to digital tokens, which have grown into a $2 trillion industry in little more than a decade. Bitcoin, the original and biggest crypto coin, is valued at more than $1 trillion alone after a more than 800% surge in the past year.At the closing price, Coinbase’s valuation on a fully diluted basis is about $86 billion. Given its size and visibility, Coinbase is likely to be popular with actively managed equity funds, particularly growth managers, essentially making a large swath of stock holders passive investors in crypto.“It’s a huge step forward for the industry and the legitimacy it brings in the eyes of investors and regulators,” Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, said on Bloomberg TV.Read more: Bitcoin ETF Drumbeat Gets Louder as Eight Issuers File With SECGrowing mainstream acceptance of cryptocurrencies has spurred Bitcoin to a 120% rally since December, as well as lifting other tokens to record highs. That’s despite lingering concerns over their volatility and usefulness as a method of payment. Attention from regulators is poised to intensify as Coinbase becomes a public company.“As the direct listing on the Nasdaq will reach a wider investment base other than the usual crypto evangelists, investors must expect much greater government scrutiny,” said Nigel Green, CEO and founder of deVere Group.(Updates prices in the third paragraph)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- Just last year, the world’s most valuable startup, ByteDance Ltd., was being squeezed from all sides.The Trump administration wanted the Chinese firm, which owns the ubiquitous TikTok video-sharing platform, to get rid of assets. Beijing was cracking down on tech businesses, and India blacklisted some of its social-media apps.For all the obstacles, ByteDance kept growing. Now its founder, 38-year-old Zhang Yiming, is among the world’s richest people -- a distinction that lately has carried increased risks in China.Shares of the company trade in the private market at a valuation of more than $250 billion, people familiar with the dealings have said. At that level, Zhang, who owns about a quarter of ByteDance, could be worth more than $60 billion, placing him alongside Tencent Holdings Ltd.’s Pony Ma, bottled-water king Zhong Shanshan and members of the Walton and Koch families in the U.S., according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.ByteDance, famous for its short-video apps and news aggregator Toutiao, more than doubled revenue last year after expanding beyond its core advertising business into areas such as e-commerce and online gaming. It’s now weighing options for the initial public offering of some businesses.“Zhang is someone who’s known for thinking long-term and not easily dissuaded by short-term setbacks,” said Ma Rui, partner at venture-capital firm Synaptic Ventures. “He is set on building an enduring, global business.”Surging ValuationDuring its last fundraising round, ByteDance reached a $180 billion valuation, a person with knowledge of the matter said. That’s up from $20 billion about three years ago, according to CB Insights. But in the private market, some investors recently were asking for the equivalent of a $350 billion valuation to part with their shares, people familiar have said. The company’s value for private-equity investors is approaching $400 billion, the South China Morning Post reported. That would mean an even bigger fortune for Zhang.ByteDance representatives didn’t respond to requests for comment.It’s a tough time to be wealthy in China as the government seeks to rein in the country’s most powerful corporations and their billionaire founders. Just ask Jack Ma: After opening an antitrust probe, regulators fined Alibaba a record $2.8 billion and the central bank ordered an overhaul of his Ant Group Co. fintech empire so it’d be supervised more like a bank. On Tuesday, China ordered 34 internet companies to rectify their anti-competitive practices in the coming month.While ByteDance hasn’t been singled out as a target, its dominance in social media and war chest for deal-making are sensitive areas the government is looking into.“There are no more silly games in the U.S. with Trump and potential bans or forced asset sales,” said Kirk Boodry, founder of investment research firm Redex Holdings. “But the pressure on tech-share prices and China in particular might make $250 billion a tough sell,” he added, referring to ByteDance’s value in private transactions.Born in the southern Chinese city of Longyan, Zhang, the only son of civil servants, studied programming at Tianjin’s Nankai University, where he built a following on the school’s online forum by fixing classmates’ computers. He joined Microsoft Corp. for a brief stint after graduating, later calling the job so boring he often “worked half of the day and read books in the other half,” according to an interview with Chinese media. He went on to develop several ventures, including a real estate search portal.His breakthrough came in 2012, when working in a four-bedroom apartment in Beijing he created ByteDance’s first hit -- a joke-sharing app later shut down by censors. It then turned to news aggregation before winning over more than 1 billion global users with its short-video platforms TikTok and Chinese twin app, Douyin. In the process, it attracted big-name investors such as SoftBank Group Corp., Sequoia Capital and proprietary-trading firm Susquehanna International Group, making it a rarity among Chinese internet startups that usually get absorbed into the wider ecosystems of Tencent and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.Novel ConceptOne of Zhang’s earliest supporters, Susquehanna has become ByteDance’s largest outside backer with a 15% stake, according to a Wall Street Journal story in October. The initial bet was made at the start of 2012, when ByteDance’s news app Toutiao was just a concept that Zhang had drawn up on napkins, according to a 2016 blog post by Joan Wang, who led that investment for Susquehanna’s Chinese venture-capital unit.With TikTok facing scrutiny in the U.S. and India, Zhang has put more effort into ByteDance’s nascent and fast-growing Chinese businesses, which range from gaming to education to e-commerce. That helped it increase sales to about $35 billion last year and operating profit to $7 billion, a person familiar with the results said.Investors are eyeing the IPO of some of ByteDance’s businesses after Chinese competitor Kuaishou Technology raised $5.4 billion in February in the biggest internet listing since Uber Technologies Inc., with its market value now nearing $140 billion. Last month, ByteDance hired former Xiaomi Corp. executive Chew Shou Zi as its chief financial officer, filling a long vacant position that will be crucial for its eventual market offering.But for Zhang, it’s not all about immediate payoffs. The affable founder is known for his business philosophy of “delaying satisfactions” as he puts the focus on long-term growth -- a message he stressed again during his spiel to employees at the company’s ninth anniversary celebration last month.“Keep an ordinary mind, that’s something that sounds easy but important to do,” he said. “Put in the plainest words, when hungry, eat, when tired, sleep.”(Adds latest on China crackdown in ninth paragraph)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- New Zealand’s central bank signaled it is in no rush to remove monetary stimulus, saying the outlook remains uncertain as the economy gradually recovers from the Covid-19 pandemic.The Reserve Bank’s monetary policy committee on Wednesday maintained its current stimulatory settings, holding the official cash rate at 0.25% and the Large Scale Asset Purchase program at NZ$100 billion ($71 billion). It reiterated it is prepared to lower the cash rate further if required.“The committee agreed that, in line with its least regrets framework, it would not remove monetary stimulus until it had confidence that it is sustainably achieving the consumer price inflation and employment objectives,” the bank said. “Given that uncertainty remains elevated, gaining this confidence is expected to take considerable time and patience.”Policy makers are assessing whether an expected pick-up in inflation this year will be sustained, and whether the labor market’s gradual recovery will be hurt by the possibility of a double-dip recession. At the same time, the government now requires the RBNZ to consider the impact of its decisions on New Zealand’s housing market, where soaring prices are raising concerns about widening social inequalities.“The New Zealand economy is evolving broadly in line with RBNZ expectations, and there’s time to see how more recent developments impact things,” said Sharon Zollner, chief economist at ANZ Bank New Zealand in Auckland. “The RBNZ is under no pressure to make any bold calls about how precisely things will turn out.”The New Zealand dollar rose after the statement. It bought 70.88 U.S. cents at 3:21 p.m. in Wellington, up from 70.60 cents beforehand.The RBNZ said the outlook for growth remains similar to the scenario it presented in its last statement in February. It said inflation is likely to exceed its 2% target “for a period” but this is likely to be temporary.“This outlook remains highly uncertain, determined in large part by both health-related restrictions, and business and consumer confidence,” it said. “The committee agreed that medium-term inflation and employment would likely remain below its remit targets in the absence of prolonged monetary stimulus.”New Zealand’s economy has enjoyed a V-shaped recovery from its pandemic-induced recession and the housing market is booming, turning attention to when the RBNZ might begin to remove stimulus. The jobless rate fell to 4.9% in the fourth quarter and the central bank in February forecast that inflation will accelerate to 2.5% by June, exceeding the midpoint of its target range.Double-Dip Recession?Still, the economy unexpectedly contracted 1% in the final three months of 2020 and economists see little or no growth in the three months through March, raising the prospect of a double-dip recession.Some analysts are tipping the RBNZ will explicitly start to reduce its bond buying later this year, with a minority already projecting rate rises in 2022. But others see the central bank on hold for a prolonged period after the government in March announced a raft of measures to cool the rampant housing market, including tax adjustments to curb investor demand.The RBNZ said the extent of the dampening effect of the government’s new housing policies on house prices, and hence inflation and employment, will “take time to be observed.”New Zealand will start to allow travelers from Australia to enter the country without undergoing quarantine from April 19, which may deliver some relief for a decimated tourism industry. But the border is expected to remain closed to all other foreigners throughout 2021, and the country won’t start mass immunization until the second half.“The planned trans-Tasman travel arrangements should support incomes and employment in the tourism sector both in New Zealand and Australia,” the RBNZ said. “However, the net impact on overall domestic spending will be determined by the two-way nature of this travel.”In late February, the government instructed the RBNZ to consider the impact on housing when it makes monetary and financial policy decisions. Specifically, the monetary policy committee will to need to explain regularly how it has sought to assess the impacts of its decision on housing outcomes, Finance Minister Grant Robertson said at the time.“The committee’s initial assessment is that stimulatory monetary policy is playing a role in lifting house prices,” the bank said today. “Other factors are also influencing house prices including: the impact of low global interest rates on all asset prices, constrained housing supply and infrastructure, land use regulations, tax policies and the broader recovery in aggregate demand.”(Updates with economist in fourth paragraph)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabia is celebrating one of the biggest foreign-investment windfalls in its history after netting more than $12 billion by selling off a stake in the oil pipelines that traverse the desert kingdom.But the country may also be facing an uncomfortable reality as a result. As carefully cultivated relationships with firms such as BlackRock Inc. and SoftBank Group Corp. have yet to draw in the desired investment, it’s turning to the jewels of its energy industry to attract new money.Last week’s sale of the stake to EIG Global Energy Partners LLC shows how reliant Saudi Arabia is on its traditional mainstay and the challenges Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman faces in diversifying the country away from oil and gas to achieve his Vision 2030 goal. The likes of BlackRock and SoftBank haven’t invested back into the country as much as the government might have hoped, while foreigners favor revenue-rich energy assets over tourism and entertainment.“Entertainment and tourism might have had a better year of foreign direct investment in 2020 if Covid had not happened,” Karen Young, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, said via e-mail. “But all the same, the core investors who see value in Saudi will be interested in the largest and most profitable sector, and that is still very much oil and energy.”Though EIG, the Washington-based private equity firm led by Chief Executive Blair Thomas, is a prominent investor in North America and Europe, it barely resonates in Saudi circles. It hasn’t made a single equity purchase in the Middle East until now, let alone the kingdom itself, and its management team has never showed at Saudi Arabia’s marquee “Davos in the Desert” conference, an event attended routinely by investment leaders from The Blackstone Group Inc.’s Stephen Schwarzman to Ray Dalio of BridgeWater Associates LP and the Carlyle Group’s David Rubenstein.Saudi Arabia attracted $5.5 billion in net FDI flows in 2020, equivalent to about 1% of its economic output, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, which means the EIG deal brings more than twice last year’s total. The government’s goal is 5.7% by 2030, hence the temptation to offer up prized energy assets such as parts of Saudi Aramco, the state-owned energy giant.“This is the latest milestone in an ongoing shift,” said Jim Krane, a fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy in Houston. “Mohammed bin Salman and his advisers keep finding novel ways to coax cash out of Aramco without disrupting its operational capability. Right now it’s cash that the kingdom needs and Aramco controls the spigot.”EIG beat out rivals including Apollo Global Management Inc. and Brookfield Asset Management Inc. to buy the stake. It’s now putting together a consortium of other investors to join the deal.While several global investors have forged closer ties with Saudi Arabia in recent years, most of them see it more as a source of capital than an investment destination. The kingdom’s flagship Public Investment Fund, or PIF, is the largest investor in Softbank’s $100 billion technology vehicle, with an allocation of $45 billion. The PIF has also pledged as much as $20 billion to help Blackstone Group LP build the world’s largest infrastructure fund.The reasons are manifold, ranging from the inconsistency of the Saudi legal system to an economic slump as the country adjusts to lower oil prices. The 2017 arrest and incarceration of scores of Saudi businessmen at Riyadh’s Ritz Carlton hotel and the murder of dissident writer Jamal Khashoggi the following year have hardly helped.FDI into Saudi Arabia peaked between 2008 and 2012, averaging more than $26 billion. During those years, it was mostly driven by large refinery and petrochemical projects developed with foreign partners including Total SE and Sumitomo Chemical Co. at a time when oil averaged over $90 a barrel. The subsequent slide in oil has seen average FDI into Saudi drop to about $6 billion a year.“Despite the measures to liberalize and open the economy for investment into new industries, FDI has not come in the way originally planned,” said Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank.FDI may be set to pick up further this year. The kingdom signed agreements with developers including Electricite de France SA and Marubeni Corp. to build solar power plants last week, and later this year it is likely to complete the sale of the world’s largest desalination plant. In 2020, FDI rose 20%, in part driven by deals with Alphabet Inc. and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. to develop cloud-computing hubs that Saudi Arabia said were worth a combined $1.5 billion.In selling assets of its main state-owned energy explorer, Saudi Arabia is following a model successfully implemented by neighboring Abu Dhabi. Instead of pursuing an initial public offering of its state-owned energy firm Adnoc, the emirate has raised more than $20 billion in recent years by bringing international investors into some of its key assets. EIG studied some of the Adnoc assets that were on offer but couldn’t reach an agreement. Hence, it didn’t want to lose out on the Aramco transaction, a person familiar with the matter said.Saudi Aramco is encouraged by the valuation and the interest generated for the pipelines deal, meaning the oil giant may pursue more disposals in the coming years, people familiar with the matter said. It has already entrusted boutique investment bank Moelis & Co with formulating a strategy for selling stakes in some subsidiaries, people familiar with the matter said in December.“It’s a great deal for Aramco, but also a new kind of investment strategy, in that it is “giving up” much more in terms of investor access to information, control over operations than an IPO does,” said Young of the American Enterprise Institute. “It is a real partnership, a long-term effort with outsiders, which is an entirely new level of trust outside of the firm and the government.”Founded in 1982, EIG has committed more than $34 billion to the energy sector, according to its website. Its portfolio includes holdings in Spanish solar developer Abengoa SA, Houston-based Cheniere Energy Inc., natural-gas producer Chesapeake Energy Corp. and storage and pipeline operator Kinder Morgan Inc.(Adds details on previous Saudi refinery investments in 11th paragraph.)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks retreated after climbing to an all-time high. Treasuries fell with the dollar. Oil rallied.PayPal Holdings Inc. and Nvidia Corp. paced losses among tech companies in the S&P 500, which had fluctuated for much of Wednesday’s session as traders sifted through earnings from some of the world’s biggest banks. Bitcoin slid in the wake of the debut by cryptocurrency company Coinbase Global Inc. on the Nasdaq.Read: Goldman, JPMorgan Traders Show the Reddit Crowd How It’s DoneWith equities lingering near a record, investors are looking to the earnings season for further catalysts. Expectations of a strong profit rebound have helped markets rally, setting the bar high as reporting gets underway. More broadly, investors are monitoring vaccine developments for any threats to the economic recovery. The Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book that activity has picked up pace amid an improvement in consumer spending.“You’re going to see this tug-of-war continue within markets as investors weigh the prospects of a strengthening economy with the risk of rising inflationary pressures,” said Adam Phillips, managing director of portfolio strategy at EP Wealth Advisors.A quarter that began with retail investors declaring the end of the status quo on Wall Street just ended with big banks tallying surprisingly massive hauls. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. -- two of the most gilded names in finance -- kicked off bank earnings season with revenue windfalls from trading and dealmaking, defying warnings from within the industry that good times couldn’t last.Goldman Sachs’s stock jumped, while JPMorgan’s slipped -- undermined by concern over weak demand for loans.Some key events to watch this week:U.S. data including initial jobless claims, industrial production and retail sales come Thursday.China economic growth, industrial production and retail sales figures are on Friday.These are some of the main moves in financial markets:StocksThe S&P 500 fell 0.4% at 4 p.m. New York time.The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 0.2%.The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.7%.CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%.The euro climbed 0.3% to $1.1979.The Japanese yen appreciated 0.2% to 108.89 per dollar.BondsThe yield on two-year Treasuries rose less than one basis point to 0.16%.The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose two basis points to 1.63%.The yield on 30-year Treasuries climbed two basis points to 2.31%.CommoditiesWest Texas Intermediate crude gained 4.5% to $62.89 a barrel.Gold weakened 0.5% to $1,736.65 an ounce.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials are just as worried about an inflation rate that runs too cold as one that runs too hot.While rising prices are in the spotlight now as the economy reopens and demand surges, the longer-run trends that have suppressed costs globally could re-emerge as the pandemic ends, some policy makers warn. That would make it harder to deliver on their new strategy of running inflation above their 2% target for a time in order to achieve that goal over the longer run.“We are probably more likely to be successful with the new monetary policy regime than if we didn’t have it,” Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said in a Bloomberg News interview this week. But based on the experience of the last decade “you have to take seriously the idea that it is not going to be that easy to get 2% inflation.”Investors are likely to hear more on the topic from Fed Chair Jerome Powell when he speaks at a event held by the Economic Club of Washington on Wednesday.Policy makers at the central bank have been pressed in recent weeks about whether an expected spike in prices -- as the U.S. rebounds from pandemic shutdowns -- will be a temporary blip or something more permanent and dangerous to the economy after a wave of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus over the past year.For years, major economies including the U.S., Japan and the euro zone have struggled to raise inflation to 2% despite aggressive monetary policy actions. Aging populations, the impact of new technology and the disinflationary force of globalization are not things central banks can wish away, while rates stuck at zero -- or below -- telegraph the limits of their power.Inflation pessimism shows up in forecasts released by Fed officials’ at their March meeting as well. Even after taking account of the passage last month of President Joe Biden’s additional $1.9 trillion stimulus package in their forecasts, more than half of the 18 Fed officials estimated inflation would be around 2% or slightly below next year. A majority also forecast prices in a range of 1.9% to 2.2% for 2023.“Several participants commented that the factors that had contributed to low inflation during the previous expansion could again exert more downward pressure on inflation than expected,” minutes of the gathering showed said.March SpikeOn the other hand, a sharp jump in consumer prices last month is a reminder that the risks are two-sided. Both goods and services prices rose last month with the consumer price index rising 0.6% after a 0.4% gain in February as the end of pandemic lockdowns drove up the cost of gasoline, car rentals and hotel rooms, according to data released Tuesday.Rosengren said the Fed has never tried to shift to a new policy regime while exiting a pandemic amid aggressive fiscal stimulus. “We have to be pretty humble about how confident we are about what the inflation outcomes are going to be,” he said.Some indicators of longer-run inflation are starting to move higher, a sign that the Fed is at least getting the public’s outlook pointing in the right direction. The rate on the five-year, five-year forward swap contract for consumer-price inflation is hovering around 2.4%.That is up from a low last year of just under 1% during the peak pandemic lock down period. When adjusting for measurement differences between CPI and the Fed’s preferred measure -- the personal consumption expenditures price index -- it puts longer-run inflation pricing in at just a touch over the central bank’s 2% target.However, some market watchers -- like Fed policy makers -- see an enduring rise in inflation as a challenge.Interest-rate derivative markets don’t foresee the Fed lifting its policy rate beyond about 2% during the upcoming tightening cycle. That’s below the 2.5% Fed officials forecast last month for their long-run policy rate. This backdrop signals that traders don’t see much risk of inflation unmooring or growth getting too robust before the next downturn.“We are looking for a core CPI running closer to 1.9% or so,” after temporary base effects filter through the data, said Phoebe White, interest-rate strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. “That’s still pretty soft and we think the underlying trend in inflation is going to be pretty gradual to build as we look into 2022.”There are a range of forces that are likely to keep inflation low from the Fed’s perspective, including the millions of still-unemployed Americans. Slow changes in pandemic behavior -- even as vaccines roll out -- weak wage-bargaining power and an aging workforce could also keep overall demand moderate and prices muted.“We are of the view that we are going to continue to be in a lower inflationary environment both in the U.S. and globally,” said Steven Oh, head of fixed income at PineBridge Investments. “We are not necessarily going to be successful in reaching inflation targets on a sustainable basis.”The Fed also has limited tools. In its recent statement, the Fed pledged to keep rates at zero until “inflation has risen to 2% and is on track to moderately exceed 2% for some time.” But a pledge to do nothing also raises questions about the potency of policy. The U.S. central bank has a legacy of missing its 2% inflation target consistently since it was installed in 2012.“Really it’s about changing peoples’ mindsets and experience for the last ten years,” said Tiffany Wilding, economist at Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co.“You are going to need several periods, maybe several years, of inflation that is running above the Fed’s 2% target to really anchor those expectations, because they have moved down.”For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
Over the last decade, every critique in the book has been thrown at the cryptocurrency space.
(Bloomberg) -- A quarter that began with retail investors declaring the end of the status quo on Wall Street just ended with big banks tallying surprisingly massive hauls.Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. -- two of the most gilded names in finance -- kicked off bank earnings season with revenue windfalls from trading and dealmaking, defying warnings from within the industry that good times couldn’t last. The boon was thanks in part to the burgeoning optimism of little investors who tried to stage a trading revolution in January.Goldman Sachs earned more from trading in the first three months of the year than it had in any quarter in the past decade, while JPMorgan saw such revenue climb 25%. Stock underwriters at both firms posted the most revenue ever after helping a flood of blank-check companies -- often known by their acronym SPAC -- tap investors to build war chests for future takeovers.“Wow,” Susan Roth Katzke, an analyst at Credit Suisse Group AG, said in a note to clients about earnings at Goldman Sachs, which leans more heavily on Wall Street operations than rivals. “Impressive all around.”Goldman Sachs’s stock jumped 4.7% as of 11:30 a.m. in New York. JPMorgan’s slipped 0.3%, undermined by concern over weak demand for loans.Strong TradingFor months, executives and analysts have been cautioning that last year’s pandemic-fueled market turmoil and demand for cash that propelled trading and dealmaking were easing, and that earnings in 2021 would be characterized by tough comparisons to those year-earlier periods.Instead, traders seem to have had a Goldilocks moment as the year began.In January, retail investors organized on forums such as Reddit drove up GameStop Corp. and other so-called meme stocks that had been beaten down by mainstream finance, making day trading an international sport. Volumes stayed elevated across markets even as volatility began receding by the end of the quarter, according to Goldman’s earnings presentation.In all, Goldman’s traders boosted revenue 47% to $7.58 billion -- more than $2 billion higher than what analysts had projected. Goldman’s dealmakers were busy too, more than doubling investment-banking fees, excluding corporate lending.At JPMorgan, the firm’s stock-trading revenue jumped 47% to $3.29 billion, topping even the highest analyst estimate gathered by Bloomberg. Investment-banking fees soared 57% to $2.99 billion.Still, JPMorgan and Goldman’s results might not translate to jubilee across Wall Street. Both firms warned that they saw lower revenues from their businesses of trading currencies -- an area where Citigroup Inc. dominates. Citigroup and Bank of America Corp. are expected to post quarterly results on Thursday. Morgan Stanley reports Friday.For those minting profits, the question again is whether that will last. Goldman Sachs Chief Executive Officer David Solomon wasn’t making promises.“The first quarter was an extraordinary quarter,” he told analysts on a call. “I don’t think the expectation should be that activity will continue at that pace through the second quarter, the third quarter, the fourth quarter. But I will say activity levels continue to be elevated.”For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
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