The 2023 holiday shopping season will soon be in full swing with Black Friday in a few days. The National Retail Federation is predicting holiday spending to slow the most in five years, as the NRF forecasts three to four percent growth from last year. Yahoo Finance spoke to industry experts and analysts to discuss what we expect to see from consumers this holiday shopping season, amid inflation, high interest rates, and the resumption of student loan repayment.
eToro Global Market Strategist Ben Laidler explained how the “holiday season is the next big test.” Although sales are only “up three, four, five percent,” Laidler notes, “it’s still a pretty good number.”
Stacey Widlitz, SW Retail Advisors Chief International Store Hunter, noted that “consumers are spending on necessities.” Consumers are still feeling the pressure as food prices are up and remain stagnant, Widlitz explains, they’re “still spending on their basics and… you’re going to see a lot of that this holiday season.”
Tanger Outlets (SKT) CEO Stephen Yalof discussed the importance of pricing for consumers going into the holiday shopping season. Customers are “looking for the best possible price on the brands they love,” Yalof says.
Walmart (WMT) CFO John David Rainey explained how the company has “seen pretty good strength” around holiday shopping events. “The consumer is being discerning, maybe choiceful, and buying these more discretionary items, these larger ticket items, and they’re leaning into these promotional or holiday type events to buy those items,” Rainey noted.
Natalie Kotlyar, BDO Retail & Consumer Products National Industry Leader, notes that consumer resilience is “a couple stages behind and it’s going to catch up.” Kotlyar believes that “it’s going to catch up during the holiday season and we’re going to see consumers starting to pull back,” as “the average consumer is strapped for cash, they have a fixed budget, and they’re really trying to fit in everything that they need to buy.”
Video highlights:
00:00:23 - eToro Global Market Strategist Ben Laidler
00:00:34 - SW Retail Advisors Chief International Store Hunter Stacey Widlitz
00:00:51 - Tanger Outlets CEO Stephen Yalof
00:01:01 - Walmart CFO John David Rainey
00:01:25 - BDO Retail & Consumer Products National Industry Leader Natalie Kotlyar
Video Transcript
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BRAD SMITH: With Black Friday just around the corner, a new forecast from the National Retail Federation. They predict holiday spending is expected to slow the most in five years.
BROOKE DIPALMA: It's no secret that consumers wallets remain pinched. And they're becoming just like me, more and more mindful of just how much they're willing to shell out this holiday season.
BEN LAIDLER: This holiday season is the next big test. And I think all indications are that sales are going to be up 3%, 4%, 5%. That's a slowdown, but it's still a pretty good number.
STACEY WIDLITZ: Consumers are spending on necessities. But the bottom line is food costs are up 20% on a two-year basis. And that's not declining. That's just stagnating. So the consumer is still feeling it and still spending on their basics. And I think you're going to see a lot of that this holiday season.
STEPHEN YALOF: Heading into a holiday shopping season, they are looking for the best possible price on the brands they love. And they can get them in our shopping environments.
JOHN DAVID RAINEY: As we look into November and particularly around some of the events that we've had for our holiday shopping, we've seen pretty good strength. And so what that tells me is that the consumer is being discerning, maybe choiceful, and buying these more discretionary items, these larger ticket items. And they're leaning into these promotional or holiday type events to buy those items. And the shoulder periods around that are a little bit slower than what we've seen previously.
NATALIE KOTLYAR: What we are seeing is that the consumer resilience is going to-- it's like a couple of stages behind. And it's going to catch up. And unfortunately, I do think it's going to catch up during the holiday season. And we're going to see consumers starting to pull back. The average consumer is strapped for cash. They have a fixed budget. And they're really trying to fit in everything that they need to buy, whether essentials, non-essentials, holiday gifts. They're trying to pack all that into a fixed budget.
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