The US housing market is facing a trifecta of challenges when it comes to affordability: tight inventory, climbing prices and elevated mortgage rates. So what does that mean for buyers and sellers?!
Here are 3 things you need to know about the 2024 housing market:
#1: Inventory
People are staying in their homes longer. Thank you baby boomers! The lack of homes for sale and high housing costs are just some of the reasons people aren’t moving. Sales of previously owned homes hit its worst level in decades last year as elevated rates and rising home prices deadlocked affordability.
The demand- supply imbalance will carry into this year. There is a 3.2 month supply of unsold inventory at the current sales pace. For perspective, at least six months of inventory is considered a healthy market.
Despite the tight inventory in the resale market, the newly built home market remains attractive. New homes accounted for nearly 32% of single-family homes for sale – Redfin reported – marking the highest level of any fourth quarter on record.
But inventory is only part of the story. There’s also the dilemma with home prices.
#2: Home Prices
Buyers beware, but sellers rejoice, because home prices have never been higher! The median price for a home is around $361,000, up 5% from the prior year, Redfin reported.
The pressure of limited housing supply has kept home prices elevated.
Homes were 6.7% less affordable in December on a year-over-year basis, the National Association of Realtors reported.
Despite elevated prices, builders have been able to take advantage of lean inventories in the resale market and offer buyers incentives including price cuts. The median sales price of a new home fell 6% from a year ago to $434,000.
But it looks like home prices won’t be leveling off anytime soon. Data from Wells Fargo projects new home prices to rise 2.2%, while existing homes are estimated to increase 3.1% this year.
#3: Mortgage rates
Another reason for the limited supply of homes has been the lock-in effect.
At least — 80% of homeowners — who hold a mortgage// had a rate of 5% or lower nationally in the third quarter of 2023 –discouraging homeowners from selling and buying another in today’s high interest rate environment.
Rates have roughly doubled since the pandemic — thanks in part to the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation. Inflation remains stubborn – leaving rates elevated. Last year, mortgage rates rose above 8% in October — but have now come back down to range around 6%.
Data from Freddie Mac shows that the average mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed loan climbed to 6.7% from 6.64% a week prior. Not much reprieve there.
By contrast — homebuilders have been able to win the housing recovery by giving buyers what they want: mortgage rate buydowns.
That's when the builder upfronts the cost to lower the rate on the loan — making new construction the place for deals in this housing market.
Economists expect the housing recovery to stall over the next few months given that long-term interest rates have jumped back up again this year. However –the hiatus will likely be short-lived.
How will this economic picture play out throughout the rest of 20-24?
Make sure to stay up to date on the latest developments as Yahoo Finance continues breaking down everything you need to know about the housing market this year.
Video Transcript
[MUSIC PLAYING]
- The US housing market is facing a trifecta of challenges when it comes to affordability-- tight inventory, climbing prices, and elevated mortgage rates. So what does this mean for buyers and sellers?
Here are three things you need to know about the 2024 housing market.
Number one, inventory. People are staying in their homes / Thank you, baby boomers. The lack of homes for sale and high housing costs are just some of the reasons people aren't moving. Sales of previously owned homes hit its worst level in decades last year, as elevated rates and rising home prices deadlocked affordability.
The demand supply imbalance will carry into this year. There is a 3.2-month supply of unsold inventory at the current sales pace. For perspective, at least six months of inventory is considered a healthy market. Despite the tight inventory in the resale market, the newly built home market remains attractive.
New homes accounted for nearly 32% of single family homes for sale, Redfin reported, marking the highest level of any fourth quarter on record. But inventory is only part of the story. There's also the dilemma with home prices.
Number two, home prices. Buyers beware, but Sellers rejoice, because home prices have never been higher. The median price for a home is around $361,000, up 5% from the prior year, Redfin reported. The pressure of limited housing supply has kept home prices elevated.
Homes were 6.7% less affordable in December on a year-over-year basis, the National Association of Realtors reported. Despite elevated prices, builders were able to take advantage of lean inventories in the resale market, and offer buyers incentives, including price cuts.
The median sales price of a new home fell 6% from a year ago to $434,000. But it looks like home prices won't be leveling off anytime soon. Data from Wells Fargo projects new home prices to rise 2.2%, while existing homes are estimated to increase 3.1% this year.
Number three, mortgage rates. Another reason for the limited supply of homes has been the lock in effect. At least 80% of homeowners, who hold a mortgage, had a rate of 5% or lower nationally in the third quarter of 2023, discouraging homeowners from selling and buying another in today's high interest rate environment.
Rates have roughly doubled since the pandemic. Thanks, in part, to the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation. Inflation remains stubborn, leaving rates elevated. Last year, mortgage rates rose above 8% in October, but have now come back down to range around 6%.
Data from Freddie Mac shows that the average mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed loan climbed to 6.7% from 6.64% a week prior. Not much reprieve there.
By contrast, homebuilders have been able to win the housing recovery by giving buyers what they want-- mortgage rate buy downs.
That's when the builder upfronts the cost to lower the rate on the loan, making new construction the place for deals in this housing market. Economists expect the housing recovery to stall over the next few months, given that long-term interest rates have jumped back up again this year. However, the hiatus will likely be short lived.
How will this economic picture play out throughout the rest of 2024? Make sure to stay up to date on the latest developments as "Yahoo Finance" continues breaking down everything you need to know about the housing market this year.
