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One More Thought: Presidential Peloton

Jan.22 -- David Westin has "One More Thought" on security concerns over President Biden's Peloton.

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  • American Air Borrowing $7.5 Billion in Loyalty-Backed Debt

    (Bloomberg) -- American Airlines Group Inc. is kicking off a $7.5 billion sale of bonds and leveraged loans backstopped by its frequent-flyer program, capitalizing on low borrowing costs to repay U.S. government loans that have helped it navigate the pandemic.The carrier is marketing two $2.5 billion series of notes maturing in 2026 and 2029, and a term loan credit facility of the same amount due in 2028, according to a news release. The new debt, which is secured against the company’s loyalty program, will help refinance American’s $7.5 billion Treasury loan, of which $550 million has been drawn to date, according to an investor presentation Monday.Early pricing discussions are in the low-to-mid 6% range for the five-year notes, and the mid-to-high 6% range for the eight-year portion, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing a private transaction. Initial pricing on the loan is being discussed at a spread of 500 to 525 basis points over the London interbank offered rate, plus an original issue discount of 98 cents on the dollar with a 1% Libor floor, the people added.American opted to refinance the Treasury loan with debt in an amortizing structure, which allows the company to pay back it in pieces leading up to maturity rather than all at once. The new financing gives American greater flexibility and also potentially increases the borrowing capacity of the AAdvantage program, a company spokesman said.The airline is returning to the market at a ripe time for borrowers: Funding costs are at historically low levels and risk appetite has been soaring as investors rush to get their hands on higher-paying assets. American borrowed $2.5 billion in June at an all-in yield of 12%.Barclays Plc is leading the loan deal and held a call with potential lenders earlier on Monday. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which is leading the bond sale, was sounding out potential investors earlier this year for the deal, Bloomberg reported in February, after helping United Airlines Holdings Inc. with a similar debt offering in June.Representatives for Barclays and Goldman Sachs declined to comment. The bond sale is in marketing through March 10 and expected to price thereafter.American’s AAdvantage loyalty program has an assessed value of $18 billion to $30 billion, the carrier said in May, when it was negotiating with the Treasury Department to use at least part of the asset as collateral for the loan. The carrier mortgaged its brand with $1.2 billion in committed financing from Goldman Sachs in July.American has about $3.6 billion in unencumbered assets and additional first lien debt capacity of $7.2 billion, according to the presentation. It said its overall cost of debt is around 4% and has an estimated $15 billion of liquidity.Fitch Ratings rates the new debt BB with a negative outlook. It downgraded American’s secured debt rating one notch to B, five steps below investment grade, as a growing amount of such borrowings may dilute recovery prospects in a distress scenario, according to a report Monday. Fitch removed the company from negative watch given bolstered liquidity and a vaccine rollout that will likely increase air travel.Other airlines have also been raising debt to help repay Covid-19 rescue funds and loans. Deutsche Lufthansa AG sold $1.9 billion of bonds in February to partially repay a state aid package, while United borrowed $3 billion in October to repay $2.75 billion of debt that it sold last year.(Updates with company response and bond structure in the fourth paragraph.)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Rush to bitcoin? Not so fast, say keepers of corporate coffers

    When Elon Musk's Tesla became the biggest name to reveal it had added bitcoin to its coffers last month, many pundits were swift to call a corporate rush towards the booming cryptocurrency. Yet there's unlikely to be a concerted crypto charge any time soon, say many finance executives and accountants loath to risk balance sheets and reputations on a highly volatile and unpredictable asset that confounds convention. "When I did my treasury exams, the thing we were told as number one objective is to guarantee security and liquidity of the balance sheet," said Graham Robinson, a partner in international tax and treasury at PwC and adviser to the UK's Association for Corporate Treasurers.

  • Stock market news live updates: Dow rallies while Nasdaq lags after Senate passes $1.9 trillion stimulus bill

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  • GE Nears Deal With AerCap to Create Behemoth Aircraft Lessor

    (Bloomberg) -- General Electric Co. is nearing an agreement to combine its jet-leasing business with Ireland’s AerCap Holdings NV, said people familiar with the matter, in a potential deal that would join the world’s two biggest aircraft financiers in a market roiled by the coronavirus pandemic.A transaction may be announced as soon as this week, said the people, who asked not to be named discussing the matter. The deal is expected to have a value of more than $30 billion, said the Wall Street Journal, which reported the talks earlier. Shares of both companies gained.Between them, GE Capital Aviation Services, or Gecas, and AerCap have almost 3,000 aircraft owned, managed or on order. A combination would speed GE Chief Executive Officer Larry Culp’s push to streamline the U.S. industrial icon after an epic corporate meltdown.While terms of the potential agreement with AerCap are unclear, a sale of Gecas could garner GE about $25 billion, Bloomberg Intelligence said in a report in 2019. Last year, GE completed the sale of its bio-pharmaceutical business to Culp’s former employer, Danaher Corp., for $21.4 billion.Read: General Electric Has One Way to Fly Out of Trouble: GadflyA deal would also mark a significant consolidation in the leasing sector at a time of “extreme uncertainty” for aviation, said John Strickland, who runs London-based airline advisory firm JLS Consulting. The combined company would have greater negotiating clout with manufacturers like Boeing Co. and Airbus SE, while being able to focus on the strongest airline customers during the recovery, when many will remain reliant on lessors for financing flexibility.GE declined to comment, and AerCap representatives couldn’t immediately be reached for comment outside regular business hours on Sunday.Aviation PainAerCap surged 11% to $56.57 at 9:47 a.m. in New York after advancing as much as 15% for the biggest intraday gain in about four months. The company, based in Dublin and listed on the New York Stock Exchange, had a market value of $6.6 billion at the end of last week.GE climbed 2.3% to $13.92, adding to a 26% increase for the year through Friday.The pandemic has hammered the aviation industry and pushed airlines around the world to cancel new jetliner orders, push back delivery dates and defer lease payments. As middlemen, aircraft leasing firms have suffered too, while also playing a critical financing role to keep deliveries flowing, often with sale-leaseback deals that hand cash to airlines with jet handovers.But a combination of two major players would be likely to receive scrutiny from antitrust authorities, other regulators and business partners, given the weight of the two companies in the sector.For GE, a tie-up would extend a shift away from the company’s longtime business model of using its powerful leasing platform to generate sales of commercial aircraft powered by the company’s jet engines. GE’s finance arm has been significantly pared back since it nearly crippled the company during the 2008 financial crisis.“The old world where you needed a leasing a company to support your manufacturing is gone,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst George Ferguson said. “For AerCap, this could be something that’s too good to refuse.”Culp has been shedding assets in recent years as part of his broader turnaround effort at GE after a collapse that wiped out a total of more than $200 billion in market value during 2017 and 2018. Under his leadership, the Gecas portfolio has been left in something akin to “caretaker status,” Ferguson said.Asset SalesIn 2019, GE agreed to sell an aircraft-financing business for $3.6 billion to Apollo Global Management and Athene Holding Ltd. as the ailing manufacturer slimmed down its once-vast lending arm. The same year, Culp sped up a plan to sell off GE’s stake in oilfield-services provider Baker Hughes in a push to refocus GE’s once-sprawling industrial businesses.The asset sales have raised critical cash that GE has used to repay its bloated debt load, one of Culp’s top priorities in his turnaround drive. The company has cut some $30 billion in debt since 2019, including $16 billion last year. GE had total borrowings of about $75 billion at the end of 2020.A deal with Gecas would likely elevate the profile of Aengus “Gus” Kelly, AerCap’s hard-charging CEO. He emerged on the global stage in 2014 with AerCap’s $7.6 billion acquisition of leasing pioneer ILFC from American International Group. By pooling assets, the new entity may be able to access the capital markets more cheaply than Gecas could acting under GE’s corporate umbrella, Ferguson said.Gecas had about $35.9 billion in assets at the end of last year, with about 1,650 aircraft owned, serviced or on order. AerCap, with assets of $42 billion, owned 939 aircraft and managed 105, according to a regulatory filing. It also had 286 planes on order, including jet models such as the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 Max.Gecas CEO Greg Conlon said at the Airline Economics conference in January that the company was looking at mergers and acquisitions and portfolio purchases, and that he saw opportunities in cargo aircraft and engine leasing. Kelly spoke at the same conference and said fewer airline customers were seeking deferrals.(Updates shares in seventh paragraph)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Gold slumps to 9-month trough as yields, dollar erode appeal

    Spot gold fell 0.7% to $1,689.87 per ounce by 1523 GMT, after hitting its lowest since June 8 at $1,683.68 earlier. The dollar climbed to a three-month peak, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield held close to a more than one-year high, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays no interest. "We have an economy that is recovering and inflation is materializing; that ultimately means that yields have room to move higher," said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities, adding that gold could fall further towards $1,660 as a result.

  • Upbeat Chinese Data May Not Ease Emerging-Market Taper Gloom

    (Bloomberg) -- The prospect of rising inflation and U.S. Treasury yields may damp emerging-market sentiment, reflected by a slump in Chinese assets despite trade data that pointed to a speedier global recovery from last year’s lockdown.Exports from the world’s second-biggest economy soared in the first two months of the year, data showed Sunday, reflecting a recovery in external demand and providing a much-needed boost for risk assets after a turbulent start to March. Meantime, the U.S. Senate passed a $1.9 trillion stimulus package Saturday that may offer an additional spur to countries such as Mexico whose economies are most sensitive to U.S. growth.Emerging-market stocks fell to a two-month low and currencies were poised for their worst session in a year on Monday as anxiety remains high in the bond market after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish message last week stopped short of trying to rein in the surging yields. An index of dollar-denominated debt in the developing world dropped for a fourth week in its longest losing streak since 2018. Local-currency notes also declined amid selloffs from Poland to Hungary and Mexico.“All fixed-income assets face a challenging market as rates and inflation become more of a threat,” said Abdul Kadir Hussain, Dubai-based head of fixed-income asset management at Arqaam Capital. “Emerging markets are no different. We have already seen outflows from emerging-market fixed-income funds, and I suspect that will continue in the near term.”Last week, exchange-traded fund investors withdrew money from emerging-market bonds, while adding to stocks, as they weighed the prospects of stronger global growth and a pickup in U.S. yields.Inflation data this week will offer evidence of whether that caution is merited. Economists expect consumer prices to have picked up in places such as Taiwan, India and Brazil. Elsewhere, Peruvian policy makers will probably keep the key interest rate at a record low of 0.25%.Listen to the EM Weekly Podcast: Improving China Data; Rising Treasury YieldsInflation WatchTaiwan’s consumer prices probably rose last month after declining in January, according to a Bloomberg survey before the report on Tuesday. Export figures the same day may reveal growth slowed in February after the island exported a record the previous monthThe improving global trade outlook and backdrop for exports will probably buoy the Taiwan dollar, according to Gao Qi, a currency strategist at Scotiabank in SingaporeIndia’s consumer-price inflation probably accelerated further above the central bank’s 4% target, a Bloomberg survey showed. That could limit its capacity to keep monetary conditions accommodativeThose figures may put further upward pressure on Indian bond yields, which are already at a 10-month highA reading of Brazil’s February consumer-price inflation on Thursday will be the last before the central bank meets later this month to decide on the key policy rateEconomists expect that inflation climbed last monthMexico’s February inflation probably increased amid higher non-core prices, data on Tuesday may showArgentina is likely to report another month of high inflation when it releases February figures on ThursdayChile’s monthly inflation eased in February on a drop in food costs, corroborating the central bank’s message that a recent consumer price jump is temporary and stimulus will be kept in placeKey DataChinese data due this week will provide another update on the nation’s economy after authorities announced a conservative growth target for this year at the National People’s Congress on FridayAfter containing the pandemic and becoming the only major economy to expand in 2020, officials now want to address imbalances such as a dependence on investment in property and infrastructure funded by corporate debtOn Sunday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned the U.S. to stop “crossing lines and playing with fire” when it comes to Taiwan, which Beijing claims sovereignty overAggregate financing numbers for February due between March 9 and 15 may show a slowdown due to seasonal factors. Inflation figures on Wednesday are expected to show consumer prices dropped for a second month in February, further enhancing the allure of Chinese bondsBrazil’s January economic activity and retail sales figures will also be released next week, offering clues on the pace of a rebound in Latin America’s largest economyIn politics, traders will watch for progress on an emergency spending bill as it moves through the lower house. Jitters over fiscal spending have contributed to the real becoming the worst-performing currency in emerging markets this yearTurkey’s January current-account deficit due Thursday may narrowThe lira has posted losses for two straight weeksREAD: Economist Who Called 2018 Turkey Crash Sees New Boom, BustSouth Africa will report its fourth-quarter current-account surplus on Thursday, which is forecast to have narrowedThe country is also expected to report manufacturing production data on the same dayOn Friday, Mexico will post January industrial production figures, which will give investors a better look at how activity is recoveringPeruvian policy makers will probably keep a dovish outlook on Thursday by holding borrowing costs at 0.25%, the lowest among major Latin American economies, according to a forecast by Bloomberg EconomicsFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

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  • Central Banks Face Jumpy Bond Market With 10 Days of Decisions

    (Bloomberg) -- Central banks helped save the world economy from depression as the pandemic struck. Now they are dealing with the hard part: managing the recovery amid a difference of opinion with investors.Optimism that Covid-19 vaccines and continued government stimulus offer an escape from the worst health crisis in a century has sent bond yields soaring and pushed bets on rising inflation in the U.S. to the highest in a decade.That’s shifting the ground underneath monetary policy makers who promise to maintain rock bottom borrowing costs and cheap money well into the expansion. In the next two weeks, the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank as well as their counterparts in Japan, U.K, and Canada are all likely to reiterate those pledges, eager to secure a rebound in hiring and avoid the mistakes of the last crisis when some withdrew support too early.The risk now seems skewed the other way. While policy makers welcome a modest rise in bond yields as a signal of confidence in the economic outlook, they worry an unchecked jump would undercut recoveries. They argue any resurgence in inflation will be based on a temporary correction from last year’s slide and that high unemployment will continue to restrain price pressures.It’s a stark turnaround from a year ago, when the world powered down to fight the Covid-19 pandemic and central banks responded with what’s amounted to an unprecedented $9 trillion of monetary support.“Central banks are facing a new challenge,” said Rob Carnell, chief economist for Asia Pacific at ING Bank NV. “How do they keep justifying easy policy as the recovery continues and the inflation figures pick up?”Canada, ECBThe Bank of Canada is first up with a meeting on March 10 when policy makers are likely to indicate they plan to maintain plenty of stimulus well into any strong recovery. It’s a case that Governor Tiff Macklem laid out last month when he argued policy needs to help foster not only the immediate pickup but also facilitate virus-driven structural changes like digitalization.ECB President Christine Lagarde convenes officials the next day when updated forecasts will highlight how the euro-area economy is lagging the U.S. because of slow vaccine rollouts and extended virus restrictions. That puts the bloc at risk should higher global yields spill over into borrowing costs for companies and households.ECB policy makers have surprised investors by downplaying their concerns so far, saying their bond-buying program is flexible enough to address unwarranted tightening but failing to provide any evidence that they’re accelerating purchases. At the back of their minds though is likely to be the experience of 2011 when interest rates were raised twice to combat faster inflation despite a worsening financial crisis, only for the euro zone to slide into a double-dip recession.Powell PressureAt the Fed’s policy meeting on March 16-17, Chairman Jerome Powell will likely reaffirm his looser for longer stance. Powell repeatedly stressed during remarks on Thursday that the Fed was a long way from its goals and was not close to tightening policy. He also played down a likely rise in inflation this year and ducked questions on a possible response to the recent sharp rise in yields.While the move had “caught’ his attention, he said Fed policy was currently appropriate, though it has tools to respond if there is a material change in the outlook.Transcripts of the Fed’s meetings from 2015, when it last began a tightening cycle, suggested policy makers overestimated the potential for accelerating inflation and underestimated the room still left in the economy to generate jobs.What Bloomberg Economics Says...For the U.S., rising bond yields are largely a reflection of confidence in the strength of the recovery. For much of the rest of the world, the spillover of higher borrowing costs is arriving too soon. The Reserve Bank of Australia has already reacted with bigger bond buys. Others may also have to tweak their policy settings.-- Tom Orlik, chief economistClick here for moreTaper TalkThe Bank of England convenes on March 18. It has lined up a further 150 billion pounds ($208 billion) of asset purchases over 2021 with plans to taper weekly buying later in the year.A hugely stimulative budget from Chancellor Rishi Sunak now has economists further discounting the prospect of negative interest rates and instead looking forward to a tightening of monetary policy.The central bank has said that won’t happen until there is clear evidence that spare capacity is being eliminated and it’s closer to sustainably achieving its 2% inflation target, but in February announced it was considering whether to alter previous guidance that it wouldn’t unwind its asset purchases until the bank rate reached 1.5%.Speaking on Monday, Governor Andrew Bailey reiterated the bank doesn’t intend to tighten monetary policy until there’s clear evidence the economy is absorbing excess capacity. He added that risks to the economy remain tilted to the downside, BOJ, PBOCThen it’s the Bank of Japan’s turn on March 18-19, when officials are scheduled to unveil details of a policy review that will look at how it controls yields, negative rates and asset buying. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has said the central bank is seeking to make its policy framework more effective by fine tuning it rather than overhauling it.He has also signaled there won’t be any changes to the movement range around the 10-year yield target. Still, Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya ssignaled on Monday that the central bank may seek ways to allow more moves in yields. While developed-world central banks will likely be unified in pledging ongoing stimulus, China’s officials are already signaling the opposite. Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission -- the top banking regulator -- said on March 2. he’s “very worried” about risks emerging from bubbles in global financial markets and the nation’s property sector, stoking expectations of policy tapering.That was followed by the government setting a conservative growth target of above 6% for the year, well below what economists forecast the nation will achieve, as Premier Li Keqiang on Friday opened the National People’s Congress in Beijing.The tension between inflation and cheap money is already forcing some emerging market central banks to move. Ukraine unexpectedly raised interest rates to counter the highest inflation in more than a year. Brazil is forecast to start raising borrowing costs on March 17 having promised in August to keep its 2% benchmark for the “foreseeable future.”(Adds comments from UK and Japanese central bankers)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Bond Traders Go All-In on U.S. Treasury Market’s Big Short Bet

    (Bloomberg) -- It’s not just in meme stocks that the fate of short sellers is a key theme. Short bets are increasingly in vogue in the $21 trillion Treasuries market, with crucial implications across asset classes.The benchmark 10-year yield reached 1.62% Friday -- the highest since February 2020 -- before dip buying from foreign investors emerged. Stronger-than-expected job creation and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s seeming lack of concern, for now, with leaping long-term borrowing costs have emboldened traders. In one telltale sign of which way they’re leaning, demand to borrow 10-year notes in the repurchase-agreement market is so great that rates have gone negative, likely part of a move to short the maturity.The trifecta of more fiscal stimulus ahead, ultra-easy monetary policy and an accelerating vaccination campaign is helping bring a post-pandemic reality into view. There are of course risks to the bearish bond scenario. Most prominently, yields could rise to the point that they spook stocks, and tighten financial conditions generally -- a key metric the Fed is focused on for guiding policy. Even so, Wall Street analysts can’t seem to lift year-end yield forecasts fast enough.“There’s a lot of tinder being put now on this fire for higher yields,” said Margaret Kerins, global head of fixed-income strategy at BMO Capital Markets. “The question is what is the point that higher yields are too high and really put pressure on risk assets and push Powell into action” to try and tamp them down.Share prices have already shown signs of vulnerability to increasing yields, especially tech-heavy stocks. Another area at risk is the housing market -- a bright spot for the economy -- with mortgage rates jumping.The surge in yields and growing confidence in the economic recovery prompted a slew of analysts to recalibrate expectations for 10-year rates this past week. For example, TD Securities and Societe Generale lifted their year-end forecasts to 2% from 1.45% and 1.50%, respectively.Asset managers, for their part, flipped to most net short on 10-year notes since 2016, the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show.Auction PressureIn the days ahead, however, BMO is eyeing 1.75% as the next key mark, a level last seen in January 2020, weeks before the pandemic sent markets into a chaotic frenzy.A fresh dose of long-end supply next week may make short positions even more attractive, especially after record-low demand for last month’s 7-year auction served as a trigger to push 10-year yields above 1.6%. The Treasury will sell a total of $62 billion in 10- and 30-year debt.With expectations for inflation and growth taking flight, traders are signaling that they anticipate the Fed may have to respond more quickly than it’s indicated. Eurodollar futures now reflect a quarter-point hike in the first quarter of 2023, but they’re starting to suggest that it could come in late 2022. Fed officials have projected they’d keep rates near zero until at least the end of 2023.So while the market is leaning toward loftier yields, the interplay between bonds and stocks is bound to be a huge focus going forward.“There’s definitely that momentum, but the question is how well risky assets adjust to the new paradigm,” said Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale. “We’ll be watching next week, when the dust settles after the payrolls data, how Treasuries react and how risky assets react to the rise in yields.”What to WatchThe economic calendarMarch 8: Wholesale trade sales/inventoriesMarch 9: NFIB small business optimismMarch 10: MBA mortgage applications; CPI; average weekly earnings; monthly budget statementMarch 11: Jobless claims; Langer consumer comfort; JOLTS job openings: household change in net worthMarch 12: PPI; University of Michigan sentimentThe Fed calendar is empty before the March 17 policy decisionThe auction calendar:March 8: 13-, 26-week billsMarch 9: 42-day cash-management bills; 3-year notesMarch 10: 10-year notesMarch 11: 4-, 8-week bills; 30-year bondsFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Nothing the Stock Market Does Ever Scares Its Retail Daredevils

    (Bloomberg) -- Apple Inc. has slumped 15% since late January. Tesla Inc. has lost more than a quarter-trillion dollars in market value in three weeks. And more than $1.5 trillion has been wiped off the Nasdaq 100 in less than a month.And yet, none of it has been enough to rattle the retail investor.Instead, to borrow a Reddit phrase describing bullish gumption, they’ve had diamond hands. Since the market peaked a few weeks ago, retail traders have plowed cash into U.S. stocks at a rate 40% higher than they did in 2020, which was a record year. They’re opting for parts of the market that have suffered the most, doubling down in arguably risky ways with triple-leveraged tech funds and options galore.A year out from the Covid-19 stock crash, with individual traders now making up nearly a quarter of U.S. volume on any given day, battle lines are forming. Some of the favored speculative bets that minted money on the way up -- electric-vehicle stocks, special purpose acquisition companies and green energy plays to name a few -- are the same securities that are buckling now as bond yields rise.Retail traders, many of them newbie investors, have consistently held strong, buying virtually every dip during what’s been the best start to a bull market in nine decades. But now the world is wondering how much it’ll take for them to call it quits, especially after a year in which retail traders were right way more often than wrong.“Historically it’s been a bad signal that retail investors are piling into the market and a signal of a top,” said Arthur Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities Corp. “And every time we tried to call a top in 2020 because of retail participation, it was wrong.”As stocks swooned over the last three weeks, retail investors snapped up an average of $6.6 billion in U.S. equities each week, according to data from VandaTrack, an arm of Vanda Research that monitors retail flows in the U.S. market. That’s up from an average $4.7 billion in net weekly purchases in 2020.They’ve doubled down on areas of the market that have been hit the hardest. Apple, which has plunged 15% since late January, was the most-popular retail buy this past week. NIO Inc., the electric-vehicle maker down almost 40% since Feb. 9, was the second-most popular. Next up were exchange-traded funds tied to the Nasdaq 100, the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (ticker QQQ) and a triple leveraged version (ticker TQQQ).On Thursday, when the Nasdaq 100 fell as much as 2.9%, almost 32 million bullish call options traded across U.S. exchanges, the fifth-most on record. The other four have all occurred within the last four months.Equity ETFs added almost $7 billion of fresh money during the first four days of March, building on a record $83 billion that flooded in last month, data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence show. In fact, even before March began, flows into U.S.-listed ETFs were off to their best start to a year on record, out-pacing the prior best start -- which was in 2017 -- by over 74%, according to Matt Bartolini, State Street Global Advisors’ head of SPDR Americas Research.“There’s a lot of excess liquidity and we just had this $600 check going to many families in January,” said Jimmy Chang, chief investment officer of Rockefeller Global Family Office. “We’re going to get an additional liquidity injection in the $1,400 check and part of that money is going into risk assets.”Karim Alammuri, a 31-year-old marketing strategy manager, is one of many retail investors who’s been snapping up stocks. In recent days, he bought shares of fuboTV Inc. and SPAC Churchill Capital Corp IV. Fubo TV has plunged more than 50% since a December peak. Churchill Capital has lost almost 60% of its value in 11 trading sessions.“I plan on sticking around because I don’t want to take a loss,” he said by phone from New York. “A lot of very attractive stocks are on crazy discount right now, so I’m just looking to see how I can re-shuffle things to be able to buy them.”With an army of retail investors standing ready to buy any dip, those declines have grown shallower and shallower. The S&P 500 has gone without a 5% pullback since early November, or 83 straight days, the longest streak in a year.The end result of persistent dip buying is a market with little downside. At its lowest closing level of 2021, the S&P 500 was only down 1.5% year-to-date. That’s the smallest drawdown at this time of a year since 2017.If past is precedent, that could mean the sell-off has more room to run. Retail investors tend to buy the initial dips, and it’s not until they capitulate and sell that markets ultimately bottom, according to Eric Liu, co-founder and head of research at Vanda Research. The firm’s data show that was the case in both selloffs in 2018, as well as roughly a year ago during the Covid crash.To Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist for Crossmark Global Investments, their continued presence in the markets likely means elevated volatility will persist. Still, that doesn’t mean retail investors’ efforts are misguided.“Is there some dumb money in retail trades? Yes. But not all of it,” she said. “Some of these people are doing their homework, looking for opportunities and trying to take advantage of it. Some win, some lose -- it’s really not that different than what professionals do on an institutional basis.”For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

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