Keith Bliss of Cuttone and Company joins Yahoo Finance's Jen Rogers from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange to discuss the volatile week in stocks and what's going to move the markets in the weeks ahead.
Keith Bliss of Cuttone and Company joins Yahoo Finance's Jen Rogers from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange to discuss the volatile week in stocks and what's going to move the markets in the weeks ahead.
The Biden administration is seeking to leverage a secret weapon in its bid to get corporate America to pay for a sweeping jobs and infrastructure package: the nation's some 30 million small businesses. The White House's effort, previously unreported, seeks to harness the political popularity of small businesses and the current agitation among them over a tax structure many view as generous to larger, billion-dollar corporations like Walmart Inc and Amazon.com Inc over Main Street establishments. In doing so, the White House believes it has allies that will serve as an antidote to the large national trade groups – like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and The Business Roundtable – who have come out in favor of infrastructure investment but strongly against President Joe Biden's plan to raise the corporate tax rate from 21% to %28.
ANKARA (Reuters) -Bitcoin tumbled more than 4% on Friday after Turkey's central bank banned the use of cryptocurrencies and crypto assets for purchases citing possible "irreparable" damage and transaction risks. In legislation published in the Official Gazette, the central bank said cryptocurrencies and other such digital assets based on distributed ledger technology could not be used, directly or indirectly, to pay for goods and services. The decision could stall Turkey's crypto market, which has gained momentum in recent months as investors joined the global rally in bitcoin, seeking to hedge against lira depreciation and inflation that topped 16% last month.
The direction of the June U.S. Dollar Index on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 91.555.
(Bloomberg) -- Investors betting against Treasuries -- or even just hiding out in cash waiting for lower prices -- just suffered a rough week, even after a robust slate of economic figures showed the rebound from the pandemic is gaining steam.The debate over the long-term outlook for the $21 trillion market is far from over. The bearish view has dominated in 2021, but it was just dealt a blow as Treasuries posted their biggest weekly rally since August. And some strategists see potential for yields to stage a brief foray to even lower levels.Ten-year yields tumbled to just above 1.5% Thursday, a stunning turnaround after the specter of a 2% breach swirled just a few weeks ago. The bond rally gained speed as evidence of robust international demand spurred some investors to exit short bets, a move that seemed to defy logic as it came amid an array of strong economic data.It doesn’t look like there’s much help straight ahead for the bears, with next week devoid of major data releases, Federal Reserve officials muzzled before their April 28 decision and geopolitical tensions brewing. What’s more, the fate of the next U.S. spending plan -- which may include a chunk of taxes -- is unclear, and the reopening push took a hit as regulators paused Johnson & Johnson’s Covid-19 vaccine rollout.“Lower yields, or even just no further pickup, seems to be the pain trade now,” said Chris Ahrens, a strategist at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. “A lot of financial institutions are very flush with cash and had been holding on and hoping for higher yields -- cheaper prices -- to come back into the Treasury market. Now they are being forced to buy Treasuries at higher prices.”After the worst quarter since 1980, the Treasuries market has gained around 1% this month, paring its 2021 loss to about 3.3%, according to Bloomberg Barclays index data through April 15.The 10-year note yields 1.58%, down about 20 basis points from the more than one-year high reached at the end of March. Hedge funds had been massive sellers of Treasuries since the start of January. With stocks surging of late, retail buyers have also been biased against bonds, pouring more cash into equity funds.Bullish ToneBut now there’s a bullish tone emerging in parts of the rate market, with demand surfacing for options targeting a drop in 5-year Treasury yields to as low as 0.55% ahead of their May expiry, and for the 30-year yield to sink to 2.1%. Those maturities yield 0.83% and 2.26%, respectively.Treasury yields could extend their decline, potentially taking the 10-year yield as low as 1.2% -- a level not seen since February, says Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded “The Sevens Report” newsletter.“The market is ignoring really good economic data now, so the thing that is going to get yields moving higher again is either a surprise pop in inflation or a bit of a hawkish turn in tone from the Fed,” he said by phone. “I don’t see either of those things happening in the very short-term. Longer-term, I still think yields are headed higher -- but we are in this weird position now where the Fed has essentially said they aren’t changing their opinion of things no matter what the data is.”Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said that while the economy appears to have turned a corner, central bankers aren’t in a hurry to remove monetary support. BlackRock Inc. the world’s biggest asset manager, is among those predicting the Fed will begin communicating plans to taper its bond buying in June.Granted, the bears can take solace in views that surfaced at the end of the week, suggesting it’s time to get short again. Mark Cabana, head of U.S. interest rates strategy at Bank of America Corp., said on Bloomberg TV on Friday that he’s been encouraging clients to use the “little rate rally” to reset short positions.The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey is for the 10-year yield to end the year at 1.86%.What to WatchThe economic calendar:April 21: MBA mortgage applicationsApril 22: Chicago Fed national activity index; jobless claims; Langer consumer comfort; leading index; existing home sales; Kansas City Fed manufacturing activityApril 23: Markit U.S. PMIs; new home salesThe Fed calendar is empty ahead of the April 27-28 policy meetingThe auction calendar:April 19: 13-, 26-week billsApril 20: 52-week billsApril 21: 20-year reopeningApril 22: 4-, 8-week bills; 5-year TIPSFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. refrained from designating any trading partner as a currency manipulator in the Biden administration’s first foreign-exchange policy report, even as Switzerland, Taiwan and Vietnam met thresholds for the label.The Treasury Department said Friday that those three economies met criteria for the manipulator label, including a large trade surplus with the U.S. But it said there was “insufficient evidence” to conclude that the three trading partners showed the intent of “preventing effective balance of payments adjustments or gaining unfair competitive advantage in international trade” to apply the tag.A Treasury official told reporters that the decision not to designate any nation a manipulator should not be seen as a mixed message. In December, the last report done under President Donald Trump designated Switzerland and Vietnam as manipulators.The new assessments signal the Biden administration is taking a less confrontational approach to international currency policy after Trump labeling of China and other countries as manipulators proved ineffective and spurred concerns of politicization.The latest report assesses currency activities through 2020.Covid ImpactThe U.S. acknowledged that the unprecedented nature of the coronavirus pandemic’s impact on the global economy led to creative policy responses by governments and central banks. For that reason, the Treasury said it seeks a deeper understanding of Switzerland’s, Taiwan’s and Vietnam’s currency actions in order to determine if the interventions were done with the intent of gaining an unfair trade advantage, or to cope with the crisis.Ireland and Mexico were added to the Treasury’s watch list, which means they met two of the three criteria for designation. The Treasury kept China, Thailand, India, Japan, South Korea, Germany, Italy, Singapore and Malaysia on the monitoring list.The agency said China’s “failure” to be more transparent around activities at state-owned banks warrants close monitoring. Those banks can act in currency markets with official guidance due to close relationships with China’s central bank.“Treasury is working tirelessly to address efforts by foreign economies to artificially manipulate their currency values that put American workers at an unfair disadvantage,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a statement accompanying the report.The manipulator tag has no specific or immediate consequence, beyond any short-term market impacts. But the law requires the administration to engage with the trading partners to address the perceived exchange-rate imbalance. Penalties, including exclusion from U.S. government contracts, could be applied after a year unless the label were removed.Trump EraDuring the Trump era, the Treasury abruptly designated China a manipulator in mid-2019 outside its usual release schedule, only to lift the label five months later to win concessions in a trade deal. The developments raised concerns that the report was being increasingly politicized.That, combined with the December manipulator designations being defied by Switzerland and Vietnam who did not change their policies as a result, has called into question the credibility of Treasury’s foreign-exchange assessments.These concerns continue under Yellen.In 2019, her predecessor Steven Mnuchin used the older of the two active trade laws that inform Treasury’s currency assessments to label China a currency manipulator. Now, Yellen is using that same law to decide that no nation warrants the designation.“The inconsistent use of the same criteria by successive administrations certainly undercuts the notion of the Treasury currency report being a dispassionate and nonpolitical evaluation of other countries’ currency practices,” said Eswar Prasad, an economist at Cornell University who formerly worked in the International Monetary Fund’s China division.Still, he said that Yellen’s “less overtly political approach” may restore some credibility.Swiss officials have repeatedly denied that they are manipulating the franc, and have continued the nation’s purchases of foreign currencies as part of a long-running campaign to fight deflation through negative interest rates and currency intervention.The Treasury noted the impact of monetary policy objectives on the franc, and said it is is in talks to develop “specific actions” to address the causes of Switzerland’s external imbalances.Earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund gave the Swiss National Bank a green light for its purchases of foreign exchange, while also recommending that officials follow counterparts with a strategy review.TaiwanThe U.S. moved Taiwan from its watch list to the separate list of those meeting all three criteria for distortionary currency policies. As with Switzerland and Vietnam, Treasury officials said Taiwan met the criteria laid out in a 2015 law by a wide margin, but declined to name the country as a “manipulator” under a related 1988 act.Taiwan widely exceeded the thresholds for all three criteria, and the U.S. urged the nation to create a plan to address the causes of its currency undervaluation.Taiwan’s central bank has acknowledged intervening in foreign exchange markets to pare gains by Taiwan’s currency against the dollar. Daily efforts to stabilize the Taiwan dollar began in earnest in June 2020 until September. Since then, it appears that the bank has been managing the currency’s appreciation.The bank’s governor, Yang Chin-long, said in March he believed the U.S. might designate Taiwan a currency manipulator, but he didn’t expect serious negative impact for the local economy, given robust U.S. demand for semiconductors. Semiconductors, he said, were the main factor driving Taiwan’s trade surplus with the U.S.As for the dollar, the Treasury highlighted that even after its decline in 2020, it remained “nearly 5% above its 20-year average,” considering the real effective exchange rate -- which adjusts for inflation and is weighted against currencies of U.S. trading partners. (Updates with additional details from 18th paragraph)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- European shares hit a fresh record, extending the longest streak of weekly gains since 2018, as investors embraced the solid start to the earnings season amid optimism for an economic recovery.The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.9% by the close in London, led by the automotive sector amid booming car sales and as Daimler AG climbed after its earnings “significantly” topped estimates. Basic resources stocks advanced after U.S. bellwether Alcoa Corp.’s results beat expectations, owing to a surge in aluminum.A positive start to the earnings season and robust economic data from the U.S. and China are providing investors with confidence that the global recovery is under way. The Stoxx 600 has risen for seven straight weeks on the back of generous monetary stimulus and a spending spree from governments across Europe, with investors betting that a gradual reopening of economies will lead to increased consumption.“The market is in risk-on mood and will continue like that for a few weeks as earnings have had a very strong start and the pandemic is set to be under control,” said Alfonso Benito, chief investment officer at Spanish asset manager Dunas Capital.Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists said in a note that they expect earnings-per-share for the Stoxx 600 to grow 40% this year, compared with 35% for the consensus view. Despite continued lockdowns across Europe, the strategists expect the economic reopening to start in May, paving the way for a “strong” recovery in the summer.Among individual moves, HelloFresh SE jumped 3.3% after boosting its sales forecast, while L’Oreal SA declined 1.8% from near record levels even after the beauty giant said sales rose in the first quarter. LVMH climbed 2.2% after its chief executive officer on Thursday said the luxury giant gained market share during the pandemic.For a daily wrap highlighting the biggest movers among EMEA stocks, click hereYou want more news on this market? Click here for a curated First Word channel of actionable news from Bloomberg and select sources. It can be customized to your preferences by clicking into Actions on the toolbar or hitting the HELP key for assistance.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- Europe’s auto sales soared last month from a depressed level a year ago, making up for a dismal start to the year even as virus-related restrictions persisted in key markets.New car-registrations rose 63% in March, the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association said Friday. The gains erased an early-year decline to leave sales up 0.9% for the quarter.While automakers are benefiting from easy comparisons to a year ago, when countries were locking down to contain the spread of Covid-19, last month’s sales stack up well even relative to pre-pandemic. The 1.39 million vehicles registered was the highest since June 2019.Carmaker shares advanced on sales regaining momentum and Daimler AG reporting better-than-expected earnings for the first quarter. The Mercedes-Benz maker cited strong sales in all major regions.The Stoxx Europe 600 Automobiles & Parts Index climbed 1.5% in early trading, led by gains for Volkswagen AG, parts maker Continental AG and Daimler.Consumers returning to dealerships are a welcome development for the industry after months of Europe’s car market lagging behind rising sales seen in China and the U.S. Carmakers’ concerns have shifted dramatically from demand to supply issues, with the global chip shortage hampering production for the likes of VW, Stellantis NV and Renault SA.“Only the critical global supply situation for various semiconductor categories currently has a limiting effect on this upswing,” VW Chief Executive Officer Herbert Diess said at the Hannover Messe trade fair Thursday.March tends to be a seasonally strong time of year for Europe’s auto industry, so registrations were still about 13% below what the industry averaged for the month in the decade before the pandemic, according to the ACEA.While Italy -- the epicenter of Europe’s initial virus outbreak -- saw sales rise almost 500% last month, they remained 12% below 2019 levels as virus-related measures curb economic activity.Carmakers have been coping with restrictions by moving sales processes online and taking advantage of government subsidies for electric vehicles. Economic forecasters have said the continent’s growth prospects rest on a vaccination program that started slowly but has begun to accelerate.Even as many areas slowly return to normal, carmakers are benefiting from health concerns about using public transport or ride-hailing services during the pandemic.Among Europe’s five largest markets, sales rose 29% and 21% in Italy and France in the first quarter. Registrations fell 15% in Spain, 12% in the U.K. and 6.4% in Germany.The industry witnessed historic consolidation during the quarter, with France’s PSA Group merging with Italian-American carmaker Fiat Chrysler to form Stellantis. About 47% of vehicles registered in the first three months of the year were VW or Stellantis models.(Updates with shares, Daimler earnings in fourth paragraph)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
IPO Edge, in partnership with The Palm Beach Hedge Fund Association, hosted a live panel and virtual tasting with Bespoke Capital Acquisition Corp. (NASDAQ: BSPE) and Vintage Wine Estates on Thursday, April 15 at 4 PM EDT. The live event features Bespoke Capital CEO Mark Harms, Vintage Wine Estates President Terry Wheatley, Vintage Wine Estates Brand Ambassador Katy […]
Holley merging with SPAC Empower Ltd. (NYSE: EMPW) Leader in $34 billion fragmented auto enthusiast market Profitable company with 113-year legacy Sales in 2020 +25% to $580 million; 3x biggest competitor Trades at just 10x 2021 Ebitda, well below comparable companies Fox , Thule, YETI Expanding into products for performance EVs Active M&A pipeline, recently […]
The firm saw a social media backlash after a nurse claimed staff were turned away for beauty treatments.
(Bloomberg) -- As London’s shops and pub gardens reopen for the first weekend in three months, funds targeting smaller U.K. companies are among the best performers in Europe thanks to a rally in domestic stocks that benefit from Britain’s vaccine rollout success.Among Western European stock funds with $200 million or more in assets, the majority of the 10 best performers this year are focused on U.K. small caps, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The FTSE Small Cap Index has gained 14% in 2021 versus a rise of 11% for a benchmark tracking small stocks on euro-area exchanges.The nation’s markets are benefiting from a confluence of factors: Valuations had been depressed by the overhang of the U.K.’s departure from the European Union, and during the worst of the pandemic, when there was no economic growth, investors were will paying to pay a premium for the few companies that were enjoying rapid increases in sales. With the Brexit cloud removed and the economy rebounding as virus restrictions ease, investors are turning back to domestic stocks and those that are cheap relative to earnings.“The ability to generate a return in the U.K. market compared with the most other stock markets is very, very attractive,” said Gervais Williams, co-manager of the Premier Miton U.K. Smaller Companies Fund. Previously, the U.K. had been “very much out of fashion.”U.K. smaller companies are still inexpensive: The FTSE Small Cap sells for about 14 times estimated earnings for this year, compared to a multiple of 20.8 for the Euro Stoxx Small Index.“I’ve been investing since ‘85; I don’t think I’ve ever known this mismatch, this disparity,” said Williams, whose fund has returned 26% in 2021 with holdings including appliances retailer AO World Plc, chilled-storage provider Norish Plc and insurance investor Randall & Quilter Investment Holdings Ltd.Small caps are a traditional way of gaining exposure to the economic cycle, said James Athey, a money manager at Aberdeen Standard Investments.“That end of the company spectrum is, by far and away, most likely to have been heavily and negatively affected by lockdown, because you tend to be talking about companies that deal with these sort of parochial face-to-face services which have been essentially banned for most of this period,” Athey said by phone.English consumers have been splashing out in shops, pub gardens and hairdressers since Monday after venues were allowed to reopen following almost 100 days of being closed to control the spread of Covid-19. Britain also hit its target a few days ahead of schedule of offering a first coronavirus vaccine shot to all over-50s, as its inoculation campaign progresses faster than those of its continental neighbors.In many countries around Europe, meanwhile, restrictions remain in place, with France keeping open-air cafes closed until at least May 15 and Germany taking steps to allow the federal government to impose tighter restrictions.To be sure, it’s not just small-cap funds that are outperforming, with the continued interest in cheaper value stocks instead of high-growth companies also benefiting U.K. mid- and large-cap funds.The U.K. market, with its heavy weighting in commodity companies, is tilted toward value and cyclical shares.“There’s been a colossal rotation that we’ve been enormous beneficiaries of,” said Ian Lance, co-manager of Temple Bar Investment Trust Plc, which has returned 24% year-to-date with bets on stocks like postal group Royal Mail Plc, high street bank Natwest Group Plc and retailer Marks & Spencer Group Plc.Many of Temple Bar’s holdings were cheap even before the pandemic, so recent rallies don’t mean they are now overvalued, Lance said by phone.One issue with small caps is that they often play just one theme -- in many cases right now, the reopening -- leaving them vulnerable to any potential hiccups in the vaccine roll-out, Alexandra Jackson, manager of the Rathbone U.K. Opportunities Fund, said in an interview.Slightly larger companies that might prove to be less “binary” in that sense include Softcat Plc, a technology infrastructure group that also offers work-from-home tech, and construction retailers like Howden Joinery Group Plc and Grafton Group Plc, which should benefit from an elevated interest in home improvements even after people get used to post-lockdown life, said Jackson, whose fund is up 7.4% this year.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
USD/CAD declined below the support at 1.2525 and is testing the next support level at 1.2500.
For context, Armstrong's holdings in the crypto exchange has been estimated at north of $7 billion.
The car company said it and LG Chem are building a production facility in Tennessee. Think of a Tesla Giga factory, GM style.
(Bloomberg) -- Oil posted the biggest weekly gain since early March as economic data in the U.S. and China strengthened expectations for a recovery in global fuel demand.Futures in New York advanced 6.4% this week, despite eking out a small loss on Friday. On the heels of robust economic figures out of the U.S., data from China showed its gross domestic product climbed 18.3% in the first quarter from a year prior as consumer spending beat forecasts. In March, China’s refiners processed about 20% more crude than a year earlier, pointing to the strength of the country’s rebound.JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts brought forward their forecast for the global benchmark Brent hitting $70 a barrel again by four months to May, with a boost in U.S. demand likely bringing inventories for countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development in line sooner than expected.“The world’s two largest economies are starting to really shine, and despite difficulties in Europe, they’re starting to get vaccinations going as well,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda Corp. “Having Europe, China and the U.S. for the most part looking at a return to normalcy, that speaks wonders for the demand outlook, which is very supportive for higher prices.”Prices this week escaped the narrow trading range they had been in for nearly a month, with upbeat developments out of the world’s two largest economies helping lift the outlook for demand. The International Energy Agency joined the world’s major oil organizations in boosting its consumption forecasts earlier this week, with the IEA citing the improving situation in U.S. and China.In Asia, a Chinese mega-refiner and some Japanese oil companies have been snapping up crude cargoes, boding well for the physical market. With Asian buying picking up, gauges of market strength have also climbed. Brent’s nearest timespread was in a bullish backwardation of 48 cents a barrel on Friday, compared with as little as 37 cents on Wednesday.“We’re closing the gap on gasoline and jet fuel,” said Peter McNally, global head for industrials, materials and energy at Third Bridge. “International travel is not coming back this summer, but as far as the two biggest markets go -- China and the U.S. -- it’s encouraging.”Commodities faced a broad-based surge this week, with oil and metals both topping key technical levels alongside a weaker dollar and lower U.S. Treasury yields. The 23-member Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index broke out to the highest since late February after hedge funds trimmed their net bullish positions for six straight weeks.While the oil market is facing an increase in supply in the coming months, although the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said this week that rising demand should allow for global stockpiles to deplete. Exports of Russia’s flagship Urals crude are set to rise sharply in the first five days of May, a move that pressured swap markets tied to the grade.Complicating the picture, talks are continuing between Iran and world powers over the revival of a 2015 nuclear agreement, a return to which could see the U.S. lift sanctions on the Persian Gulf nation’s oil exports. Still, progress on the talks has been uncertain in recent days.Despite strong recovery signals from China and the U.S., Covid-19 continues to slow growth elsewhere. In India, refineries are diverting oxygen produced at their plants to hospitals to help battle a serious second wave, which has led to fuel sales tumbling during the first half of April compared with a month earlier.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
On Friday, Keith Gill exercised his 500 GameStop call options to get 50,000 more shares at a strike price of $12, which is less than a tenth of the current stock price. What Happened: Keith Gill, the Reddit WallStreetBets trader, also bought 50,000 more GameStop Corp (NYSE: GME) shares, bringing his total investment to 200,000 shares worth more than $30 million. Gill — who goes by DeepF------Value on Reddit and Roaring Kitty on YouTube — is the man who helped inspire the GameStop short squeeze in January. On Friday, he shared a screenshot of his portfolio marked "final update" on the WallStreetBets subreddit. The screenshot showed nearly $34.5 million in his assets with $30.9 million of GameStop shares and $3.5 million in cash. The Wall Street Journal also reported Gill held more than $30 million in assets. Gill uploaded a video on YouTube entitled "Cheers everyone!" According to Gill's latest update on Reddit's r/WallStreetBets forum, his average price paid for GameStop shares is $55.17. Keith Gill gained fame amid Reddit's WallStreetBets craze. He has been posting about GameStop for a year and also making videos on YouTube. Gill found himself in the middle of the GameStop story after posting about large gains made from buying the stock before its 1,000% increase. Gill was registered as an agent with MML Investors Services LLC, a broker-dealer arm for Mass Mutual. Last month, the company filed a termination request with FINRA to remove Gill's broker license. In February, a class-action lawsuit was filed against Gill after the GameStop short squeeze. He appeared at a Congressional hearing in February regarding Reddit's influence on the market. The CEOs of Robinhood, Citadel and Melvin Capital also spoke at the hearing. Price action: GameStop closed Friday at $154.69. Image: Screenshot of Keith Gill's video See more from BenzingaClick here for options trades from BenzingaKorean EV Battery Suppliers To Ford, VW Reportedly Reach Agreement To Avoid Import DisruptionWhy Alibaba Just Got Hit With A Record .87 Billion Fine In China© 2021 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
The IRS chief tells Congress the child tax credit payments will arrive on time after all.
'Sell in May and go away,' advises the trading maxim. But with stocks at record highs, one trader at the New York Stock Exchange is recommending a related but different strategy.
Dow hits new high, J&J asks other vaccine makers to investigate blood clots, and other news to start your day.
All manner of weird things keep happening in financial markets, from bond yields that go down when they should go up, to near-daily swings between big-picture convictions. It's hard to manage money when everything feels so fragile.