efficient binding isn't happening yet.. but there is already a mild affinity for the a2-6 receptors in the human upper airway. I don't believe this analysis includes the latest novel virus out of HK.
Structural analyses of the binding of avian origin H7N9 influenza viruses have revealed how the receptor-binding characteristics differentiate between birds and mammals, and studies involving the use of whole viruses have suggested that the virus is acquiring human-type receptor specificity. In contrast, Xu et al. (p. 1230) show that the H7 hemagglutinin strongly retains its specificity for avian-type receptors by using cocrystal structures with receptor analogs and glycan binding analysis with recombinant hemagglutinin against a library of receptor analogs. Thus, current human H7N9 viruses appear to remain poorly adapted to human receptors, and additional mutations will be required to achieve specificity for human-type receptors equivalent to those of human pandemic viruses.
you can bet your #$%$ and 2 cents there will be yet another strain develop from Beijing north to Harbin. The original H7N9 outbreak occurred near Shanghai and worked it's way 800 miles north to Beijing.
(A) 17 close contacts remain under quarantine for 10 days since their last contact with the patient. Their specimens tested negative for the avian influenza A(H7N9) virus upon preliminary laboratory testing by the Public Health Laboratory Services Branch of the CHP. During isolation, if their health conditions change, further testing and surveillance will be conducted. They include:
1. Ten home contacts (including four with non-specific symptoms);
2. A female collateral aged 33, who visited Shenzhen with the patient; and
3. Six patients in Tuen Mun Hospital (TMH) who stayed in the same cubicle with the confirmed patient (including one with non-specific symptoms).
(B) Over 220 other contacts, including two private doctors whom the patient consulted, their clinic staff, patients and accompanying relatives, healthcare workers (HCWs) of TMH, Queen Mary Hospital (QMH) and the ambulance service, and relevant hospital visitors, are all under medical surveillance. Among them:
1. A patient who consulted Dr Wong Chun-yan and presented with non-specific symptoms tested negative for the avian influenza A(H7N9) virus; and
2. Twelve HCWs of TMH and QMH who presented with non-specific symptoms tested negative for the avian influenza A(H7N9) virus.
Meanwhile, hospitals have ramped up their infection control protocols, extensive public education campaigns are underway, and border control points (BCPs) are scanning incoming visitors for signs of fever or illness (an imprecise, but commonly employed control measure).
While none of these steps are guaranteed to keep the H7N9 virus at bay forever, they are about as fine of an example of a proactive public health response as one could hope for. Hong Kong’s dedication to avian flu drills, planning, and constant vigilance (see Hong Kong: Avian Influenza Drill) appears to be paying huge dividends.
As winter sets in and more H7N9 cases begin to emerge in Eastern China, one shouldn’t be too surprised to see this virus hitch a ride in another traveler, perhaps showing up outside of China. Hopefully public health agencies around the world are watching Hong Kong’s response, and taking notes.
While Hong Kong’s CHP has been working feverishly to contain any further spread of the H7N9 virus, media reports indicate that such is not the case in Shenzhen, where Hong Kong’s first patient is suspected of having been infected. According to the following report in the the South China Morning Post, the trade in live poultry continues in that city’s markets.
Since there is no actual proof that the virus was acquired in Shenzhen, this report indicates that `attitudes towards the virus were more relaxed in the government and media. Sterilisation measures were little used at Shenzhen's markets.’
not good. not good at all.
Complete black on the flow of any real information,, huh? Guess what? It's a separate strain of the virus spreading independently of the first one.
So they don't know WTH to say..imo.. yet
Thus, A/Hong Kong/5942/2013 represents an independent introduction into humans, which reflects a constellation circulating in southern China that is distinct from the August H7N9 from Guangdong Province. This sequence data indicates H7N9 circulating in southern China is readily distinguished from the former and recent sequences in northern China, and there is significant heterogeneity in the southern sequences signaling widespread H7N9 in poultry in southern China.
"the only thing "on track" is a 2014 filing for Pami."
10 posts in one day .. you made it clear crapshot.. a #$%$ liar.
72.41 million (2011)
43.83 million (2011)
38.34 million (2011)
.. which essentially borders with Siberia,
colder than a well diggers #$%$ already to drop below 0 F tomorrow night.
National Bureau of Statistics of China
sub freezing temps above the 38th for the last week.
If this stuff is circulating in Guandong, 1300 miles south of Beijing.. it's a good bet it's circulating to the north in colder climes.
Kiwi: Tried to make it clear as I could... the only thing "on track" is a 2014 filing for Pami... as far as HAE... this is a crossover study Kiwi... means that a patient gets the first drug for 28 days, goes through at least a one week washout and then starts on the other drug for 28 days... means almost 2 1/2 months just for the dosing of one patient... who knows when the last one will be recruited but Stoney is giving himself some slack until at least March for the last dosing... crossover data is not a piece of cake so it will take extra time to come up with a "good" trial... Stoney, of course, has already characterized how certain results will be defined by the market... considering the 1st half '14 data and Pami baked in, at least to the upside, BCRX is pretty much dead money until data is out...
If they get any where near that: Value creation of $15B - $20B from one drug.
So the risk for BIG PHARMA is definitely to the upside.
[An analysis on HA, NA gene/protein evolution and the variability of antigenicity sites of influenza A (H7N9) virus].
Regional differences exist in HA and NA gene evolution of H7N9 virus. The deletion of 5 AAs in stalk and the variation of several antigenicity sites of HA and NA protein may lead to an outbreak of H7N9 virus in humans.
So, how much risk is required before govts. stockpile the most potent IV antiviral as insurance against a possible global pandemic? Who will make the first move? So far Japan has been the most proactive towards their people…come on Shionogi.
Peramivir with $300M cash cow inventory and the ability to nearly double that value with API on hand.
Gout Program with robust data set including differentiated value around 30% of 2.3M gout patients in the U.S. for kidney stones and solution to drug interaction problems with low dose effect. 5-10mg.
BCX4161 is ~15-fold more potent than C1INH on kallikrein in
HAE: BCRX/Babu is the only company in the WORLD that have been able to produce an oral treatment candidate for HAE. BIG PHARMA wants it. EOS!
HAE patient plasma
HAE: PI data shows 50-80nM concentration vs. Cinryze at 25-40ng/ml
There is so much inhibition in PI that they are only using 1/2 the expected dose in PII.
Cinryze® PK can be used to predict effective trough drug levels
for BCX4161 in HAE patients: ~50-80 nM (~25-40 ng/mL)
Total revenue potential from these programs?
Peramivir: $50-$100M annual in seasonal flu plus stockpiling
Gout: $500M annual
HAE: 50% or attack reduction: $1 billion in 1st gen drug
HAE: 30-50%: $350M annual sales
The total revenue potential for treating 10,000 of the 16,500 patients in EU and U.S $4 billion annual!
And add to this.. 3 more HAE molecules in the Babu oven! That is the clincher..imo.
noach.. the demand from patients with HAE are not economically sensitive. The treatment is paid for by insurance and government subsidy. Successful drug with 50% attack reduction+-10% = successful company.
Challenge question is: - Is if the market will collapse before the market understand the potential in BCRX
Or that the stock will jump to the sky and then the market will collapse?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
OK.. I've put the "greater than" sign in here twice and Yahoo is knocking it off.
At greater than 50% HAE attack reduction: words do not describe. If you were getting IV/poked twice per week.. how long would it take you to swap to an oral treatment with the same effect? 2 weeks?
At 50% HAE attack reduction: words do not describe
this development would scream big time success for Dr. Babu's work.. and the whole drug platform.
Noach.. we have a $300M company with a $300M inventory in position to be monetized at any time..and a billion$ proof of concept underway with very strong data to this point. The CEO says with an oral treatment in HAE::
At 50% inhibition it's a home run
At 50% wors do not describe
Even at 25% they have a drug to sell.
Oh.. and there's that other PIII ready gout program like the one that netted RDEA $1.26B.
Kidney Stones and Drug Interaction issues guarantee a strong market share.