Well all the weekly calls closed up today. so you're up from Fridays close. imo AMZN should rally with APL and the general market. TA wise AMZN should hit a min of $320 before earnings. Thats where the cliff started and also where the 50 dma is. If it gets there on Thursday however the time decay may only break you even. Everything boils down to Earnings at the Thursdays close at that point.
Options both calls and especially puts are crazy expensive.
imo if AMZN hits $320 resistance before earnings, sell h'lf your position ( winners first ).
Those are all out of the money, so they will keep rapidly heading for 0. If amzn can rally above your strikes, the calls will be worth the difference on Friday. That's their intrinsic value. But they have no intrinsic value if they are less than their strike prices. The only value you have now is time value, which is for the chance the stock will get above your strikes. That chance is getting smaller with time, soso it's worth less and less and you are seeing them fall in price.
Too many on one side of the boat. = a not half bad earnings report and she losses a couple %, stays flat, or pops.
put holders get killed.
If she bumbles around at these level ( stays below $320 ) for the next few days , then i'll buy calls on thursday.
For odds are we will pop since everyone including their granney i betting on a drop.
Why will amazon say the same? can you elaborate on that? Apple is a company that actually makes a profit & is not negative eps like amazon.
Theta burns quickly in 11th hr. Always buy at last minute unless you're doing a spread like I did with my puts. That way your decay is offset by profits in the strike sold.
I think you are thinking rationally in pointing out that there has been no run up into earnings. I agree the run ups create perfect set ups for a sell off. This time expectations are lower. The guidance was awful last quarter. So a loss that's not as bad as expected could trigger a rally. But I wouldn't expect much from a bounce.
The problem for longs is that you have been left holding the bag more than 200 points higher than the shares are worth using any long term, rational valuation metric that has withstood the test of time. The hype isn't working anymore. And other stocks have attracted the fast money momentum players who are still playing the market that way. There isn't any reason for AMZN to stay up.
. . . that shorts here are the dumbest people I've ever encountered in my whole life.
They're also the unluckiest people I've ever come across in my whole life.
Avoid them like the plague.
I think that is "your calls will probably get less and less...." Or
"your calls are probably going to go down the longer..." In any event, I think you will continue to lose money.
Shoots up $40. Longs babble drivel, then drool all over themselves uncontrollably. That's my story and I am sticking to it.
calls are down? how cn that be with AMZN is up 1/2%. And of course puts are down.
#$%$ options makers. they make all the money.