15 Biggest US Cities Facing Depopulation by 2100
In this article, we will take a look at the 15 biggest US cities facing depopulation by 2100. If you want to skip our discussion on the population trends, you can go directly to the 5 Biggest US Cities Facing Depopulation by 2100.
According to the Census Bureau, the number of US inhabitants is likely to increase to about 366 million by 2100, which implies decelerating growth compared with previous decades. In fact, almost half of the 30,000 US cities are projected to experience population loss by 2100. Moreover, the distribution of population within the country is likely to change, with an increase in population in suburban and rural areas and a decline in urban centers, some shrinking by as much as 25%. The Midwest and Northeast regions are slated for the harshest declines, with urban centers and low-income communities bearing the brunt. Furthermore, the baby boomer generation, born between 1946 and 1964, is entering old age and leading to a rise in the retiree population. The number of citizens over the age of 65 is expected to rise by 24% by 2040. The aging trend contributes to individuals moving away from cities for a quieter and more affordable lifestyle into suburban areas, causing a significant population decline in US cities. As per a survey by the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP), 63% of retirees prioritize affordability when choosing where to live, while 58% value healthcare accessibility. Projections indicate that by 2029, retirees will outnumber children under the age of eighteen, resulting in more deaths than births in the coming years.
In addition, economic factors also contribute to depopulation in US cities. A 2023 report by the National Low Income Housing Coalition revealed that affording a two-bedroom apartment in San Francisco requires a median income of $99,190, while the city's median household income sits at $92,800. This inequality of income and cost of living is also seen in other major cities like Los Angeles, where the median home price reached a record $988,000 in 2023. These factors are pushing young professionals and families to seek more affordable living options elsewhere. Furthermore, Labor Statistics data highlighted that middle-wage jobs declined by 3.4 million between 2001 and 2022, while low-wage jobs increased by 3.7 million during the same period. This widening gap between job availability and income needs is driving residents to seek opportunities in areas with better employment prospects. Consequently, cities like San Francisco and New York are witnessing population decline, with a decrease of 5.3% and 7.5%, respectively, between 2020 and 2022.
With major US cities losing population, there will be negative implications for the US economy. Firstly, a smaller population will mean a smaller consumer base, impacting businesses across sectors. This could impact economic growth, given that consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the US GDP. A shrinking population in US cities will particularly affect the real estate market of cities. Reduced demand for housing, particularly in depopulating regions, could lead to vacant properties and declining property values. A Freddie Mac study revealed that home values in shrinking cities depreciated by an average of 2.7% annually, compared to a 3.8% appreciation in growing cities. You can also check out the 25 Cities Where Home Prices Are Falling Now here. The slowdown in the real estate market could also pose challenges for popular companies like American Tower Corporation (NYSE:AMT), Prologis Inc. (NYSE:PLD), and Lennar Corp (NYSE:LEN).
Here’s what Baron Funds said about American Tower Corporation (NYSE:AMT) in its Q4 2023 investor letter:
“Early in 2023, we sold the majority of our position in American Tower Corporation (NYSE:AMT), a global operator of over 200,000 wireless towers, and even further reduced our modest position in the third quarter of 2023. We had concluded in late 2022 and early 2023 that growth expectations were too high given forthcoming headwinds from significantly higher financing costs (20%-plus exposure to floating rate debt), upcoming debt maturities, continued payment shortfalls from a key tenant in India, foreign exchange headwinds, and a reduction in mobile carrier capital expenditures.
Following a sharp decline in American Tower’s shares in the first nine months of 2023, we began rebuilding our position because we believed that the company’s shares had become more attractively valued, growth headwinds were better understood, and the potential monetization event of its India business would ultimately be value accretive to its business. Further, we believe that 2023 will mark the trough in earnings growth for American Tower and growth should reaccelerate in the next few years.”
A crowded Wall Street plaza, bustling with people carrying briefcases.
Our Methodology
To shortlist the 15 biggest US cities facing depopulation by 2100, we referred to a study conducted by researchers affiliated with the University of Chicago, Illinois, who employed US Census Data to project the potential shifts in city populations by 2100. Their analysis incorporated mathematical models to account for the influences of various scenarios. We also did a comparative analysis of the biggest cities' populations over both a five-year and a decade-long timespan. The average annual loss rate for the preceding years has also been included to provide a more comprehensive view of the overall trend. The cities have been ranked in ascending order of the percentage decline in their populations over the five-year period.
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Biggest US Cities Facing Depopulation by 2100
15. Buffalo, NY
Five-Year Change: 6.92%
Annual Loss Rate: -1.356%
Since its peak in 1950, Buffalo has lost over half its population, shrinking from 573,076 to around 270,000 in 2023. Several factors have contributed to Buffalo's population loss, including deindustrialization, shifting transport problems, flight of middle-class residents from the city center to the suburbs, and high levels of poverty and unemployment.
14. Columbus, GA
Five-Year Change: 4.41%
Annual Loss Rate: -0.65%
While Columbus, Georgia, has recorded stable population growth over the past five years, it has witnessed a decline over the last couple of years, primarily due to the increasing poverty rate and contracting manufacturing industry, leading to unemployment. The city was also named one of the fastest-shrinking metropolises in 2015.
13. Cincinnati, OH
Five-Year Change: 2.73%
Annual Loss Rate: -0.837%
Cincinnati reached its peak population of 503,998 in 1950. Since then, the city has steadily lost residents, shrinking by 43% or 205,000 people as of the last census. The major reason for the decreasing population in Cincinnati, Ohio, was the decline in manufacturing jobs in the city and the rise of affordable housing in the suburbs.
12. Pittsburgh, PA
Five-Year Change: 0.16%
Annual Loss Rate: -1.397%
One of the major factors that have contributed to population loss in Pittsburgh is the city's high dependence on the steel industry, which declined during the late twentieth century. Moreover, rising death rates and outmigration due to better economic opportunities led to a further decline in population. However, there is hope ahead as the pace of population decline in Pittsburgh has slowed down.
11. Baton Rouge, LA
Five-Year Change: -1.74%
Annual Loss Rate: -1.2%
As of 2024, Baton Rouge's population is estimated to be around 215,440. This reflects a decrease of 4.03% since the 2020 census. The population decline in the city is steeper than the national average. These figures have placed Baton Rouge among the fastest-shrinking cities in the US, with populations under a million. Factors contributing to the population decline include suburbanization, economic challenges, natural disasters, high poverty, and crime rates. Baton Rouge is at the eleventh position on our list of the 15 biggest US cities facing depopulation by 2100.
10. Lansing, MI
Five-Year Change: -2.16%
Annual Loss Rate: -0.1%
Although the rate of depopulation in Lansing is not as alarming as that in many other parts of the country, there has been a decline in the city’s population over the past decade. The decline in population has most probably been caused by job losses, rising cost of living, and harsh climate.
9. Hartford, CT
Five-Year Change: -2.22%
Annual Loss Rate: -0.31%
Hartford has experienced significant depopulation in recent decades, particularly compared to its peak population in the mid-20th century. During the 1940s and 1950s, the city’s population exceeded 160,000 residents. However, by 2020, the population of Harford, CT had dropped to approximately 122,000. The major reasons behind this decline are the economic hardships faced by the city, suburbanization, outmigration of the middle class, and lack of investment in infrastructure.
8. Toledo, OH
Five-Year Change: -3.69%
Annual Loss Rate: -0.57%
The trend of population decline in Toledo, Ohio, is complex and has a long history. The city’s population peaked during the 1970s but has been declining since then. As a matter of fact, there has been about a 25% decline in the population of Toledo over the last five decades. This can be attributed to deindustrialization, suburbanization, and economic challenges faced by the city, causing people to migrate to other areas. The aging population within the city further adds to the demographic challenges.
7. Memphis, TN
Five-Year Change: -4.78%
Annual Loss Rate: -0.51%
Memphis, Tennessee, has been facing a population decline in recent years. As of January 2024, Memphis' estimated population is 618,626, showing a decline of over 2% compared to the 2020 census count of 631,326. The main causes of this decrease in the city’s population are the high rates of poverty and crime as well as a tough job market. This has resulted in many people moving to other cities. Moreover, over the past few decades, residents have been moving from the city center toward suburban areas. Memphis is at the seventh position on our list of the 15 biggest US cities facing depopulation by 2100.
6. Milwaukee, WI
Five-Year Change: -5.38%
Annual Loss Rate: -0.539%
Milwaukee has witnessed a steady decline in its population for many decades now. As per the 2020 census, the city’s population dropped to 577,222, the lowest since 1930. Within the city, some neighborhoods like Bay View and the west side are showing a stable decline, while others near downtown are observing modest growth. Loss of manufacturing jobs, preference for smaller families, and migration to suburban areas have led to a decrease in Milwaukee’s population.
The decline in population in major cities is also likely to impact the business of popular real estate companies like American Tower Corporation (NYSE:AMT), Prologis Inc. (NYSE:PLD), and Lennar Corp (NYSE:LEN).
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