Principal Financial Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:PFG) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript
Principal Financial Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:PFG) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript February 13, 2024
Principal Financial Group, Inc. isn’t one of the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds at the end of the third quarter (see the details here).
Operator: Good morning. And welcome to the Principal Financial Group Fourth Quarter 2023 Financial Results and 2024 Outlook Conference Call. There will be a question-and-answer period after the speakers have completed their prepared remarks. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference call over to Humphrey Lee, Vice President of Investor Relations.
Humphrey Lee: Thank you and good morning. Welcome to Principal Financial Group’s fourth quarter and fourth year 2023 earnings and 2024 outlook conference call. As always, materials related to today’s call are available on our website at investors.principal.com. Following a reading of the Safe Harbor provision, CEO, Dan Houston; and CFO, Deanna Strable will deliver some prepared remarks. We will then open up the call for questions. Other members of senior management will also be available for Q&A. Some of the comments made during this conference call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. The company does not revise or update them to reflect new information, subsequent events or changes in strategy.
Risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied are discussed in the company’s most recent annual report on Form 10-K filed by the company with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Additionally, some of the comments made during this conference call may refer to non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable U.S. GAAP financial measures may be found in our earnings release, financial supplement and slide presentation. We are planning to host our 2024 Investor Day on Monday, November 18th in New York and look forward to seeing many of you over the coming months. Dan?
Dan Houston: Thanks, Humphrey, and welcome to everyone on the call. This morning I will discuss key milestones and highlights from the fourth quarter and full year 2023 as we continue to execute our strategy with discipline and focus, and deliver strong results for our customers and shareholders. Deanna will follow with additional details of our results, the investment portfolio, our capital position, as well as our 2024 outlook. 2023 was a great year for Principal. We delivered on our ambitious outlook for the enterprise despite a wide range of macro issues, including significant geopolitical events and global inflation. These factors resulted in elevated market and interest rate volatility, which impacted investor risk appetite and increased allocations to cash and cash equivalents.
Our diversified and integrated business model continued to prove resilient despite these challenges and generated robust fourth quarter and full year results. Starting on slide three, we reported $1.6 billion of full year 2023 non-GAAP operating earnings or $6.55 per diluted share. Excluding significant variances, earnings per share increased 6% over 2022, at the top end of our 2023 outlook. Our strong capital position and full year free capital flow enabled us to deliver on our capital deployment strategy. We invested for growth in our businesses and returned more than $1.3 billion of capital to shareholders through share repurchase and common stock dividends, nearly 90% of net income excluding exited businesses. As shown on slide four, we reported $441 million of non-GAAP operating earnings or $1.83 per diluted share in the fourth quarter.
We ended 2023 with $695 billion of total company managed AUM, up over 9% from 2022. While markets were volatile throughout the year, they finished the year strong. Market performance and foreign currency tailwinds more than offset outflows on a full year basis. Adjusting for the large withdrawal as we discussed last quarter, we generated a positive $350 million of PGI institutional net cash flow in the fourth quarter, driven by real estate and fixed income flows. Retail net cash flow for us and the asset management industry remains challenged, as approximately $6 trillion of assets remain in money market funds or cash equivalents. We continue to benefit from diversification of distribution channels among institutional, retail, retirement, private assets and international geographies.
Our organic growth rate measured by net cash flow as a percentage of beginning of period assets has proven more resilient than our active management peers over the last 12 months. As interest rates retreat from their peak, we were well positioned with the right strategies as investors began to reallocate back into risk-based assets. The pipeline of committed yet unfunded real estate mandates remains strong, currently over $6 billion that we’ll put to work opportunistically. We continue to grow our in-house capabilities, including Principal alternative credit, our direct lending franchise that recently surpassed $2 billion in borrower commitments since we launched in 2020. We have generated an 11% IRR since inception and the current portfolio yield is 13%, making this a compelling offering for our clients.
This is yet another testament of our dedication to providing differentiated investment capabilities to clients across all asset classes. Turning to slide six, investment performance improved significantly across Morningstar rated funds and composites, particularly in our retirement-focused asset allocation strategies. While there have been some quarterly fluctuations, we’re focused on generating consistently strong long-term performance for our clients. In Principal International, we ended the quarter with a record $180 billion of total reported AUM. The increase was driven by a combination of market performance, foreign exchange tailwinds and over $2 billion of positive cash flows through 2023, evenly split between Latin America and Asia.
While the Asia economy continues to face headwinds, we are still confident about the region’s long-term potential. We welcomed a new President of Latin America in November, Pablo Sprenger. Pablo joins Principal with more than 20 years of industry experience, most recently as CEO of SURA Investments. His deep knowledge of our markets and the customer segments we serve will be valuable in driving growth across the region. Turning to U.S. Retirement, we generated strong growth in revenue and earnings in the fourth quarter. Our focus on revenue generation and continued expense discipline helped drive the full year margin above the top end of our guidance range, while we continue to invest for future growth. Business fundamentals remain very healthy.
We generated a strong growth in transfer deposits over the fourth quarter of 2022, including a 9% increase in fee-based and 36% increase in spread-based transfer deposits. These strong results were driven by growth in the retirement plan sales, as well as robust pension risk transfer sales, which exceeded targeted returns. Total RIS reoccurring deposits increased 12% over the year ago quarter, including a 14% increase in the SMB segment. This growth was primarily driven by an increase in participant deferrals and employer matches in retirement plans. While we were pleased to see plan lapses moderate in the fourth quarter, which is typically an active quarter for plan transitions and lineup changes, participant withdrawals increased over the year ago quarter.
All in, we saw significant improvement in account value net cash flow compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. For the full year, RIS sales increased 9% over 2022, driven by a 17% increase in fee-based transfer deposits and nearly $3 billion of pension risk transfer sales. We continue to leverage our favorable market position with a full suite of retirement and workplace solutions, and like the good momentum we’re seeing in our retirement platforms heading into 2024. In Specialty Benefits, record full year sales, as well as strong retention, employment and wage growth, contributed to a 9% growth in premium and fees over both the fourth quarter of 2022 and full year. Attractive segments within the SMB market remain underpenetrated and we are confident in our ability to serve these customers with a meaningful value proposition.
Sales in Specialty Benefits so far this year are tracking to our expectations, and importantly, retention is also strong. These factors give us confidence we will continue to grow faster than the market in 2024. In Life, premium and fees for the total block increased 5% over the fourth quarter of 2022, including a 26% increase in the business market segment. Our focus on the business market is resonating with distribution partners and has more than offset the runoff in our legacy retail block. I’m excited about the growth opportunities across Principal and remain confident that our focus on higher growth markets combined with our integrated product portfolio and important distribution partnerships will continue to create value for customers and shareholders.
At our core, we remain committed to providing individuals, businesses, communities and markets access to essential financial tools, products and guidance, and we see strong demand for our brand of expertise and support in today’s environment. Before turning it over to Deanna, I’d like to highlight an important recognition we received this quarter, included on slide five, along with other 2023 awards and recognition. For the 12th consecutive year, Principal Asset Management was once again named a Best Place to Work in Money Management by Pensions & Investments, earning this recognition every year since the inception of the award. Recognition like this helps us benchmark progress, attract and retain talent, and stand out in the marketplace.
I’d be remiss if I didn’t also take a moment to recognize Pat Halter, President of Principal Asset Management, who announced his retirement after 40 years with the company. I will miss Pat as a business leader and also as a very trusted advisor. I wish he and his family much success in the next phase of their life. He has guided Principal Asset Management through significant growth, including further diversification of its active, special investment capabilities into private markets and new geographies. I’d also like to congratulate Kamal Bhatia, who has assumed the role as President of Principal Asset Management. Kamal joined the company in 2019 as an industry veteran with significant experience in investment solutions, business strategy, client engagement and product development.
We close 2023 with momentum across our diverse portfolio businesses. Our success is a testament to the focus and hard work of our nearly 20,000 dedicated global employees. Their ongoing commitment to excellence and to our customers enabled us to seize opportunities and set the stage for future growth. Deanna?
Deanna Strable: Thanks, Dan. Good morning to everyone on the call. This morning, I’ll share the key contributors to our financial performance for the quarter and full year, updates on our investment portfolio, our current capital position, as well as details of our outlook for 2024. Full year reported net income was $623 million. Excluding exited business, net income was $1.5 billion for the full year with credit losses of $81 million. Fourth quarter net income, excluding exited business was $299 million with $27 million of credit losses. As a reminder, the income from exited business is non-economic and is driven by the change in the fair value of the funds withheld embedded derivative. It doesn’t impact our capital or free cash flow and can be extremely volatile quarter-to-quarter.
Full year credit drift and losses were modest and better than our expectations at the beginning of the year. Excluding significant variances, full year non-GAAP operating earnings was $1.7 billion or $6.92 per diluted share. This was a 6% increase in EPS over 2022 at the top end of our 3% to 6% outlook and included $436 million in the fourth quarter or $1.81 per diluted share. As detailed on slide 24, significant variances impacted fourth quarter non-GAAP operating earnings by a net positive $5 million on both a pre-tax and after-tax basis and $0.02 per diluted share. The significant variances included strong encaje performance largely offset by lower variable investment income. Looking at macroeconomics in the fourth quarter, the S&P 500 daily average was slightly higher than the third quarter of 2023 and 16% higher than the fourth quarter of 2022.
While the S&P 500 Index increased 24% from the end of 22, the daily average increased just 4% from the 2022 daily average. In addition, the S&P 500 performed better than mid-cap, small-cap and international equities, as well as fixed income and alternatives. Relative to our 2023 outlook, the daily average increase was lower than our typical 6% price appreciation assumption, but it was higher than expected heading into the year. Foreign exchange rates were a headwind relative to the third quarter, but a tailwind compared to the fourth quarter of 2022 and on a trailing 12-month basis. Margins across the enterprise remained strong as we took actions to reduce expenses to align with revenue, while investing for growth and increasing scalability.
On a full year basis, compensation and other expenses increased modestly over 2022 despite elevated severance expense of $20 million in the fourth quarter and $30 million for the full year. Turning to the business units, the following comments exclude significant variances and demonstrate our ability to meet or exceed most of our 2023 guidance ranges. Starting with RIS, fourth quarter pre-tax operating earnings were very strong and increased 22% over the fourth quarter of 2022 driven by growth in the business and strong revenue retention, higher net investment income and favorable markets. Full year net revenue growth of 4% and the 39% margin were at the high end of our guided ranges. Our focus on profitable revenue growth is paying off and was aided by favorable macroeconomic impacts.
PGI’s pre-tax margin of 35% for the full year was within our guided range, a strong result compared to many of our peers, reflecting disciplined expense management, while navigating a pressured revenue environment. PGI’s full year revenue growth was slightly below our guided range given the market volatility, as well as the industry trend of money moving to money market funds in 2023. At $34 million for the full year, performance fees ended the year in line with our outlook despite a pressured real estate market. This compares to a very strong year in 2022, which had $70 million. Performance fees are dependent on market conditions as to when we can optimize alpha generation in the portfolio. Principal International ended the year strong with full year revenue growth of 9%, a 32% margin and an 11% increase in pre-tax operating earnings over 2022.
Results benefited from growth in the business, higher AUM, positive net cash flow and foreign currency tailwinds. Both revenue growth and margin were within our guided ranges. Specialty Benefits continued to deliver in 2023 with a 9% growth in premium and fees, a 15% margin and a 17% increase in pre-tax operating earnings compared to full year 2022. This was fueled by another year of record sales, strong retention and employment and wage growth, as well as a more favorable loss ratio. All of our metrics for specialty benefits were within our guided ranges. In Life, growth in premium and fees was within our guided range as our focus on business solutions is outpacing the roll-off of the legacy block. Margin was slightly below our guided range primarily due to lower net investment income as we right-sized the assets backing the business post-transaction.
Shifting to our investment portfolio, it remains high quality, aligned with our liability profile and well-positioned for a variety of economic conditions. We revalued the office real estate portfolio again in the fourth quarter as we have done quarterly throughout 2023. The commercial mortgage loan portfolio remains healthy. The average loan-to-value of 49% increased modestly throughout 2023, as we expected while the debt service coverage ratio remained stable at 2.5 times, reflecting the quality of our portfolio and our disciplined investment approach. Specific to our office exposure in the CML portfolio, there were 10 loans that matured in 2023, reducing our office loan exposure by 12%. All loans were paid off and resolved. We did not have any loan extensions or foreclosures in 2023.
Looking at the 2024 office maturities, the underlying metrics are generally strong, with an average loan-to-value of 66% and debt service coverage ratio of 3.8 times. We only have one maturity in the first quarter and it paid off in January. We’re actively managing and remain confident in the outcome of the remaining 10 maturities, eight of which are slated for the second half of the year. Turning to capital and liquidity, we ended the year in a very strong position, with $1.7 billion of excess and available capital, including approximately $935 million at the holding company, which is above our $800 million targeted level, $375 million in our subsidiaries and $375 million in excess of our targeted 400% risk-based capital ratio, which was 427% at the end of the year.
Our capital position and free cash flow reflect robust fourth quarter results and actions we took to increase capital efficiency, including the establishment of an affiliated Bermuda reinsurance entity and the closure of certain guaranteed retirement products in Hong Kong. Combined, these actions freed up more than $200 million of capital in the fourth quarter. On a full year basis, we delivered 100% free capital flow conversion, including organic generation within our 75% to 85% targeted range. As shown on slide three, we returned $1.3 billion to shareholders in 2023, including $700 million of share repurchases and $625 million of common stock dividends. This included more than $400 million of capital returned to shareholders in the fourth quarter, with approximately $250 million of share repurchases and $160 million of common stock dividends.
Last night we announced a $0.69 common stock dividend payable in the first quarter, a $0.02 increase from the dividend paid in the fourth quarter and in line with our targeted 40% dividend payout ratio. This demonstrates our confidence in continued growth and overall performance. We remain focused on maintaining our capital and liquidity targets at both the life company and the holding company, and will continue a balanced and disciplined approach to capital deployment. Turning to our outlook for 2024, starting on slide 13, we are well positioned to deliver on our enterprise long-term financial targets in 2024, with 9% to 12% growth in earnings per share and 75% to 85% free capital flow conversion. In regards to EPS, benefits from growth in the business, favorable macroeconomic tailwinds and higher share repurchases are expected to more than offset continued pressure on real estate, Asia and a higher effective tax rate.
Our higher growth, higher return and more capital efficient portfolio will continue to drive an increase in return on equity and we expect to achieve our 14% to 16% targeted range in 2025. We remain committed to returning excess capital to shareholders and are targeting $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion of capital deployments in 2024. This includes $800 million to $1.1 billion of share repurchases and a 40% dividend payout ratio. Our Board of Directors approved a new share repurchase authorization for $1.5 billion. This is in addition to nearly $300 million remaining under the prior authorization at the end of the year. Our guidance assumes run rate variable investment income. As usual, we’ll quantify the impacts to reported results from higher or lower than expected variable investment income as a significant variance on our earnings calls throughout the year.
Slide 21 provides details of our alternative investments. Our portfolio is more heavily weighted to real estate, with a smaller allocation to private equity and hedge funds. Variable investment income is difficult to predict, but if the current macro environment persists throughout 2024, we expect continued pressure on prepayment fees and real estate returns. Turning to our business units, our outlook for 2024 is grounded in our long-term guidance. We included some modeling considerations on slide 14, noting where we expect to perform on an adjusted basis relative to our targeted long-term ranges. In RIS, benefits from macroeconomic tailwinds and growth in the business are expected to drive revenue growth at the high end or slightly above our long-term guidance, and margin at the upper end of our range.
In PGI, revenue growth is expected to be at the lower end of our long-term guidance, as benefits from market tailwinds are partially offset by continued pressure on real estate revenue and impacts from recent redemptions. In Principal International, margin is expected to be in line with 2023 and we’re expecting low single-digit revenue growth, reflecting the impact of foreign currency translation and continued macro headwinds in Asia. While the closure of the guaranteed retirement products will impact revenue and earnings in Asia, Latin America is expected to continue to deliver strong earnings growth. In benefits and protection, we expect favorable loss ratios and Specialty Benefits to persist in 2024 and expect to be toward the lower half of our long-term range.
The margin for Life Insurance is expected to be slightly below the long-term range but improve from 2023. Before opening for questions, I want to remind you of a few seasonality impacts. In PGI, the first quarter is typically our lowest quarter for earnings due to the seasonality of deferred compensation and elevated payroll taxes. And in Specialty Benefits, dental claims are typically higher in the first half of the year. These factors contribute to the pattern of free capital flow, which is typically lightest in the first quarter and increases throughout the year. We have good momentum as we start 2024 with a strong capital position and we are well positioned to deliver on our long-term financial targets. We are grounded in our growth drivers of retirement, asset management, and benefits and protection and executing on a strategy focused on continuing to drive long-term shareholder value.
This concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, please open the call for questions.
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