Stock market today: Stocks climb to new records after Fed sticks to the plan on rates

Josh Schafer and Karen Friar
Updated
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In this article:

US stock indexes hit record highs on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged and stuck to its projection of three rate cuts this year.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.8%, finishing at 5,224.62, its first-ever close above 5,200. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) popped about 1% to close at a record of 39,512. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the gains, rising more than 1% to close at a record level of 16,369.

All three of the major averages rallied from small declines before the Fed decision.

Along with its policy announcement, the Fed released updated economic forecasts in its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), including its "dot plot," which maps out policymakers' expectations for where interest rates could be headed in the future.

Fed officials see the fed funds rate falling to 4.6% by the end of 2024. That suggests the Fed will cut rates by 0.75% this year. Notably, this falls in line with market pricing from investors entering Wednesday.

Bonds were little changed on the news. Yields on the 10-year Treasury (^TNX) were slightly lower at around 4.28% after rising over 20 basis points in the past two weeks.

In sum, the market's reaction to the Fed meeting furthered signs of broadening in the market rally, exemplified by the small cap benchmark index (^RUT) rallying nearly 2% and six of the 11 S&P 500 sectors rallying more than 1%.

LIVE COVERAGE IS OVER14 updates
  • Josh Schafer

    The big broadening continues

    Further signs of broadening in the stock market rally took hold as investors digested the latest message from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

    The S&P 500 equal-weighted index (^SP500EW) and the Industrials (XLI), Materials (XLB), and Financials (XLF) sectors all hit record highs on Wednesday.

  • Josh Schafer

    A strong labor market isn't a reason to hold on off rate cuts: Powell

    The labor market has continued to surprise to the upside to start 2024.

    When asked directly about if a strong labor market would prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates, Powell said, "No, not all by itself."

    He explained that given the increases in the labor market have come with increases in the labor supply, it equates to a "bigger economy," not one where inflationary pressures are increasing.

    "You saw last year very strong hiring and inflation coming down quickly," Powell said. "We have a better sense that a big part of that was supply-side healing, particularly with growth in the labor force. So in and of itself, strong job growth is not a reason for us to be concerned about inflation."

  • Josh Schafer

    The overall inflation story hasn't 'really changed,' Powell says

    During Wednesday's press conference, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addressed recent inflation readings that came in hotter than expected.

    While he said the central bank is careful about dismissing data they don't like, the January and February inflation readings didn't change the overall story to Powell.

    "They haven't really changed the overall story, which is that of inflation moving down gradually on a sometimes bumpy road toward 2%," Powell said. "I don't think that story has changed."

  • Josh Schafer

    Stocks pop after Fed decision, boosted outlook for growth

    Stocks popped after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and projected three interest rate cuts this year, an announcement in line with market expectations.

    Along with its policy announcement, the Fed released updated economic forecasts in its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). Notably within this forecast, the central bank boosted its outlook for economic growth. The Fed now sees nominal GDP ending 2024 at 2.1%, up from a prior forecast of 1.4%.

    Subsequently, economic sensitive sectors that typically benefit from a growing economy led the rally with Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Industrials (XLI), and Materials (XLB) all rising about 0.5%.

    Source: Yahoo Finance
    Source: Yahoo Finance
  • Josh Schafer

    Fed holds interest rates steady, projects 3 rate cuts this year

    The Federal Reserve held rates steady in a range of 5.25%-5.50% at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. The central bank has maintained this range since July after it hiked rates to their highest level in 22 years.

    Along with its policy announcement, the Fed released updated economic forecasts in its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), including its "dot plot," which maps out policymakers' expectations for where interest rates could be headed in the future.

    Fed officials see the fed funds rate falling to 4.6% by the end of 2024. That suggests the Fed will cut rates by 0.75% this year, in line with market pricing from investors had projected entering Wednesday.

    Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.

  • Dani Romero

    Mizuho prefers Lowe’s to Home Depot as housing recovery looms

    A housing market recovery will benefit home improvement retailer Lowe's (LOW) more than competitor Home Depot (HD), according to Mizuho Americas director David Bellinger.

    The reason lies in Lowe's increased exposure to DIY home improvement.

    “What we like here most, especially for Lowe's, is that they've got this bigger do it yourself piece of the business. It's about 75% of sales,” Bellinger told Yahoo Finance Live on Wednesday. “Home Depot's at about 50% and we think that gives Lowe's better leverage to any early turns in existing home sales.”

    The housing market has mostly been at a standstill as buyers and sellers alike stay on the sidelines amid high mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates this year, effectively lowering the cost of borrowing.

    Lowe's comparable sales in the most recent quarter slipped 6.2% amid a pullback in home improvement spending. Mizuho expects comparable sales to turn positive toward the back half of this year.

    Lowe’s exposure to categories like paint and outdoor seasonal appliances could give “a bit of a leg up,” he said, as homeowners typically spend more during the first few years of owning a home.

    Meanwhile, the housing stock is aging, with about 50% of homes aged 40 or older, Bellinger noted. This could be a boon for the home improvement industry as a whole.

    “These homes tend to be leaky buckets. There's always some kind of maintenance activity you have to put in place,” Bellinger said. “We do see a potential for this sort of renovation renaissance or renovation boom coming over the next several decades, and Home Depot and Lowe's, they're positioning their businesses for this.”

  • Josh Schafer

    Here comes the Fed...

    The Fed's latest decision on interest rates is expected at 2 p.m. ET. Along with that release will be an updated version of the Fed's "dot plot," a chart that maps out policymakers' expectations for where interest rates could be headed in the future.

    As the chart below from Bespoke Investment Group shows, once these updates are out — and Fed Chair Jerome Powell begins speaking to the press at 2:30 p.m. ET — the stock market action for the day usually takes off.

    A chart from Bespoke Investment Group shows most of the day's market action during Fed days usually comes after the central bank's policy update.
    A chart from Bespoke Investment Group shows most of the day's market action during Fed days usually comes after the central bank's policy update. (Bespoke Investment Group)
  • Josh Schafer

    Trending tickers on Wednesday

    Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) stock led the Yahoo Finance trending tickers page after the fast-casual restaurant's board approved a 50-1 stock split. Shares rose more than 4% in midday trading on the news.

    Intel (INTC) stock initially popped on news it received funding from the White House as part of the CHIPS Act. The White House said it will provide the company withg $8.5 billion in funding.

  • Josh Schafer

    One area of the stock market to watch if the Fed projects less rate cuts than expected

    Uncertainty around interest rates is in focus once again as investors fear the Federal Reserve may signal it expects fewer interest rate cuts than market participants had hoped for.

    After several hotter-than-expected inflation reports and no signs of an economic slowdown, economists have warned the Fed may project fewer cuts and subsequently cause a spike in Treasury yields.

    "The potential removal of an expected cut would be taken as hawkish by the market, putting upward pressure on rates and the [US dollar], all else equal," Bank of America's rate strategy team wrote in a research note on Wednesday.

    BlackRock senior investment and portfolio solutions strategist Kristy Akullian told Yahoo Finance Live that some of the stock reaction one would expect from a move in Fed rate cut planning has likely been "priced in." But areas outside of large-cap stocks could still feel some pain.

    "It can matter for the lower-quality parts of the market," Akullian said. "So if we look at small caps and highly levered companies, they've struggled this year and I think they can continue to struggle."

  • Josh Schafer

    Intel stock rises on White House funding announcement

    Intel (INTC) stock popped on Wednesday morning after the White House announced it will provide Intel with $8.5 billion in funding through the CHIPS Act.

    Yahoo Finance's Dan Howley reports:

    The infusion of cash, Intel says, will fund sites at locations including the massive complex the company is building in Ohio, plants in Arizona and New Mexico, and its research and development facility in Oregon.

    The $52.7 billion CHIPS Act aims to bring semiconductor manufacturing back to the US, reducing the nation's dependence on other countries for the processors that power everything from smartphones and laptops to infrastructure and military equipment.

    “Today is a defining moment for the US and Intel as we work to power the next great chapter of American semiconductor innovation,” Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger said in a statement.

    “AI is supercharging the digital revolution and everything digital needs semiconductors. CHIPS Act support will help to ensure that Intel and the U.S. stay at the forefront of the AI era as we build a resilient and sustainable semiconductor supply chain to power our nation’s future.”

    President Biden signed the CHIPS Act into law in August 2022, setting aside $39 billion for manufacturing incentives. But the rollout of the cash has been slow going.

  • Josh Schafer

    What to watch in today's Fed press conference

    It's Fed day.

    With few expecting the Federal Reserve to move interest rates in its policy announcement on Wednesday, much of the investor focus will be on how many interest rate cuts the Fed will project for 2024.

    Yahoo Finance's Jennifer Schonberger has the preview of today's presser:

    In focus will be the Fed's latest "dot plot," a chart updated quarterly that shows the prediction of each Fed official about the direction of the federal funds rate.

    In December, the dot plot revealed a consensus among Fed officials for three cuts for 2024, the first sign that the central bank was prepared to start loosening monetary policy.

    Now that projection is in question following a string of hotter-than-expected inflation readings and cautious commentary from Fed officials.

    Fed Chair Jay Powell and his colleagues have been emphasizing for months that they want to be sure inflation is moving "sustainably" down to their 2% target before starting cuts.

    Investors have been adjusting their bets on when those cuts could start. After beginning the year predicting six cuts starting in March, they now expect three starting in June.

    Even the odds of a June cut have been falling in recent weeks.

    The Fed last hiked rates in July and has elected to keep interest rates unchanged since then in a range of 5.25%-5.50%, a 23-year high.

    The Fed will announce its policy decision at 2 p.m. ET, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.

  • Josh Schafer

    Stocks mixed at the open

    US stocks were mixed in cautious trading on Wednesday as investors waited to find out whether the Federal Reserve has shifted its view on how many interest rate cuts could come this year.

    The S&P 500 (^GSPC) was flat at the open on the heels of a fresh all-time closing high for the benchmark. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 0.2%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) gained 0.2%.

    Most of the day's heavy trading is expected to come during Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference, which is set to begin at 2:30 p.m. ET.

  • Brian Sozzi

    What Wall Street is now doing on Nvidia

    Spending extra time on that Nvidia (NVDA) discounted cash flow model.

    Two days into Nvidia's GTC conference, analysts are starting to come out with their takes on everything being seen and heard. Of course, the Street is staying bullish on Nvidia, with price targets being taken higher. But what I find as interesting is how much profit estimates on Nvidia are beginning to rise — for 2025!

    No doubt the bar is being lifted much higher once more for Nvidia, to the point where you have to wonder if the stock will get crushed under the weight of expectations (I don't think we are there yet).

    A good example of this is out today from Citi's Atif Malik. Take note of how much higher he now expects Nvidia's earnings to be next year (emphasis added):

    "We came away from the first two days of GTC more positive in Nvidia's ability to vertically integrate its computing, networking, and software technologies with notably its new NVLink Switch technology which helps the new Blackwell platform outperform prior H100 30x on inference workloads."

    "We revise C24/25 EPS by 7%/21% to reflect better-than-expected Blackwell platform pricing or $30-40K vs our prior $20-$30K assumption and lift target price to $1,030 from $820 on consistent 35x PE. Maintain Buy."

  • Brian Sozzi

    The mechanics behind the crypto wipeout

    Bitcoin has been bitten, again.

    About $400 billion in value from the crypto market has been wiped out since bitcoin hit a record high last week of roughly $73,800. Bitcoin itself is down 17% from its record high.

    So what gives here ahead of the bitcoin halving in April? Crypto had been hot!

    Bernstein's crypto guy Gautam Chhugani offers up an explanation this morning in a client note.

    He says funding costs for long futures contracts on bitcoin have risen amid the launching of bitcoin ETFs. In turn, "leveraged traders" have likely over-extended themselves and are doing some profit-taking.

    "With bitcoin halving 30 days away, we expect general caution, and a continued bull market post halving, once bitcoin miner risks are cleared," added Chhugani.

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