Super Bowl LVIII is big beer’s prime-time opportunity to finally throw a touchdown to investors.
Up until this Sunday's marquee matchup in Las Vegas, the beer industry has largely been on defense the past two years.
U.S. beer shipments fell to a 25-year low in 2023, according to new data out of BofA Securities, as politically and culturally-driven boycotts and consumer tastes shifting to hard seltzers and liquor have pressured industry sales.
In the past two years alone, beer shipments have tanked 9% to 196 million barrels.
Investors have reacted in a sober manner.
Shares of pure-play beer brands Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) and Corona-maker Constellation Brands (STZ) have gained a mere 3% each over the two-year stretch, lagging the S&P 500's 14% gain.
MolsonCoors (TAP) shares have bucked the trend, rising 20% amid a push into non-beer brands such as The Rock's Zoa energy drink line.
"The stakes are high [this year]," Bank of America analyst Peter Galbo told Yahoo Finance Live, as brewers look to "gain new entrants into the category."
Galbo says that execution this Super Bowl Sunday is "critical," especially for the still struggling Bud Light brand, writing that the "Super Bowl could be a venue to re-establish identity."
Recall Bud Light is still reeling from backlash last year tied to an endorsement on Instagram from transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney.
Bud Light volume for the month of January plunged 29.5% year-over-year, while Budweiser volumes declined more than 15%, according to the latest data from Nielsen.
In an effort to lure back lost customers, Bud Light is aiming to return to its roots and reset the brand's image in its 60 second ads on Super Bowl Sunday. Channeling a pint of nostalgia, the beer giant will call its iconic Clydesdale horses out of the retirement barn in an ad dubbed "Old School Delivery."
It will mark one of three Super Bowl ads for Anheuser-Busch, with the other two showcasing good old- fashioned Budweiser and low calorie Michelob Ultra.
"We haven’t seen Bud Light turn the corner yet this year, but their Super Bowl ads are phenomenal, funny and are of the same humor that built Bud Light into America’s largest selling brand," Bump Williams, of long-time beverage consulting firm BWC, told Yahoo Finance by phone. "I think you'll see a positive impact on consumer appreciation of the brand."
Further helping Bud Light ahead of the Super Bowl: A former president with a big following of influential beer drinkers.
Earlier this week, former President Donald Trump came to Bud Light's defense, encouraging his supporters in a post on Truth Social to give the brand a "second chance." (Of course, the former president is himself a teetotaler, but his followers tend to have some pretty strong brand loyalty for whatever he recommends).
"Anheuser-Busch is clearly making a strong and concerted effort to win back Bud Light drinkers," EvercoreISI analyst Robert Ottenstein told Yahoo Finance. "It’s too early to know how successful that will be."
Meanwhile, some of Anheuser-Busch's rivals will look to keep the pressure on this Super Bowl.
MolsonCoors plans to run an ad featuring rap legend LL Cool J speeding through the mountains in the Coors Light Chill Train. In one portion of the spot, the train rips through a beach and appears to knock over a pail holding two Corona beers.
It's easy to explain why marketing execs at Coors are feeling feisty.
Sales of Coors Light and Miller Lite were up 11.8% and 6.7%, respectively, for the week-ended January 13 Nielsen data shows.
Constellation Brands will be silent on TV this Super Bowl, perhaps feeling as if they didn't need to spend $7 million for a 30 second spot.
The company's Modelo brand dethroned Bud Light as America’s top-selling beer for the first time last May, and has held the title ever since.
"This is a true heavyweight knockdown, drag-out fight," Galbo said of the battle brewing among beer makers.
Not unlike what the 49ers and Chiefs are about to endure on Sunday.
Seana Smith is an anchor at Yahoo Finance. Follow Smith on Twitter/X @SeanaNSmith. Tips on deals, mergers, activist situations, or anything else? Email seanasmith@yahooinc.com.
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