New Vehicle Sales Expected to Lift Slightly in Q1 Despite Affordability Challenges, According to Edmunds
Analysts forecast a SAAR of 15.6M in March
Santa Monica, Calif., March 28, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The car shopping experts from Edmunds forecast that 3,772,894 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in the first quarter of 2024, which will be a 6.0% increase from the first quarter of 2023 but a 3.1% decrease compared to the fourth quarter of 2023.
“New car sales continued in the right direction in Q1, but given the notable rebound in new vehicle inventory, they arguably could have been a bit stronger,” said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ head of insights. “In this era of sky-high interest rates, affordability is the name of the game, and consumers are laser-focused on monthly payments. The automakers that can offer compelling vehicles at competitive price points will see the most success.”
Edmunds analysts note that Honda and Toyota are two of the automakers rising to the top of car shoppers’ lists in the current market, with the largest expected lifts in market share (see table below) and the fastest-selling vehicles in Q1. According to Edmunds data, days to turn (DTT)* for Honda and Toyota dropped to 22 days and 27 days, respectively, compared to the industry average of 50 days.
According to Edmunds experts, a glut of prior model year vehicles is sitting on dealership lots: In March 2024, 13% of vehicles sold were 2023 model year, which represents the highest proportion of prior model year vehicles sold that Edmunds has on record since March 2020, when 2019 model year vehicles made up 16% of new car sales. In March 2019, 13% of new vehicles sold were 2018 model year.
“We’ve officially come full circle: It’s time for car shoppers to dust off their old, pre-pandemic playbooks because automakers are falling back into familiar traps of aging inventory and prevalent discounting,” said Ivan Drury, Edmunds’ director of insights. “But shoppers need to temper their expectations as to the brands that they’re going to find deals on. Savings won’t be discovered easily from those automakers thriving in this environment but rather from the ones with the most outdated products and generally higher price points.”
*How many days a vehicle sits on a dealership lot before being sold
SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
SALES VOLUME | 2024 Q1 Forecast | 2023 Q1 Sales | 2023 Q4 Sales | Change from 2023 Q1 | Change from 2023 Q4 |
GM | 598,971 | 603,395 | 625,498 | -0.7% | -4.2% |
Toyota | 570,485 | 471,132 | 631,680 | 21.1% | -9.7% |
Ford | 506,818 | 475,906 | 487,847 | 6.5% | 3.9% |
Hyundai/Kia | 377,131 | 382,359 | 402,339 | -1.4% | -6.3% |
Stellantis | 338,333 | 370,157 | 345,806 | -8.6% | -2.2% |
Honda | 336,320 | 284,509 | 337,511 | 18.2% | -0.4% |
Nissan | 247,647 | 235,818 | 201,756 | 5.0% | 22.7% |
VW/Audi | 122,837 | 117,057 | 157,469 | 4.9% | -22.0% |
Industry | 3,772,894 | 3,557,846 | 3,894,650 | 6.0% | -3.1% |
MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Market Share | 2024 Q1 Forecast | 2023 Q1 Sales | 2023 Q4 Sales | Change from 2023 Q1 | Change from 2023 Q4 |
GM | 15.9% | 17.0% | 16.1% | -6.4% | -1.2% |
Toyota | 15.1% | 13.2% | 16.2% | 14.2% | -6.8% |
Ford | 13.4% | 13.4% | 12.5% | 0.4% | 7.2% |
Hyundai/Kia | 10.0% | 10.7% | 10.3% | -7.0% | -3.2% |
Stellantis | 9.0% | 10.4% | 8.9% | -13.8% | 1.0% |
Honda | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 2.9% |
Nissan | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.2% | -1.0% | 26.7% |
VW/Audi | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.0% | -1.0% | -19.5% |
About Edmunds
Edmunds guides car shoppers online from research to purchase. With in-depth reviews of every new vehicle, shopping tips from an in-house team of experts, plus a wealth of consumer and automotive market insights, Edmunds helps millions of shoppers each month select, price and buy a car with confidence. Regarded as one of America's best workplaces by Fortune, Great Place to Work and Built In, Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, California. Follow us on TikTok, Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.
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CONTACT: Talia James-Armand Edmunds 310-491-8738 pr@edmunds.com
