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Baozun Inc. (BZUN)

NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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8.11-0.13 (-1.58%)
At close: 04:00PM EDT
8.03 -0.08 (-0.99%)
After hours: 07:57PM EDT
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  • B
    BIDU_2500
    Many potential near term catalysts to get this above 20/share..
    1. China-US audit agreement (50 to 75% potential catalyst)
    2. Lockdowns being lifted (20 to 40% catalyst)
    3. Tech crackdown easing (already started; 25 to 50% catalyst)
    4. 88 million left in Share buybacks (20% of the float)
    5. CEOs/founders buying $5 million each
    6. Xi wants stocks much higher going into the late year elections
    7. China is the only place in the world right now that has no inflation and is lowering interest rates
    8. BZUN completed the repurchase of the 108+million senior notes that were allowed to hedge their holdings; this substantially decreased the shorts ability to bet against BZUN
    9. Easy comps thanks to last years tech crack down.
    10. Trading at half book value and only a third of sales.

    Why anyone would want to short this stock is beyond me, but please feel free to do so!
  • T
    THE SCEPTIC
    DouYu International Holdings Limited
    One thing I’ve always admired about Steve Jobs is that he never even looked at Apple’s stock price.

    He knew where his company was going.

    The stock market will follow, when they understand.

    The individual should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator.” Benjamin Graham

    The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” –
    $BILI $IQ $BZUN $DADA $HUYA $VIPS
    Bullish
  • b
    brandon
    China has had the largest GDP growth rate by far over the last 50 years.. perhaps you can make money betting against them in the short term but good luck
  • P
    Pierre
    Chinese stocks looks poised for a HUGE move up in the next days/weeks
  • A
    Au
    Baozun analysis:

    -Dual listing on HKSE: 9991.HK and NASDAQ: BZUN
    :Safer than single listing like most of chinese ADR's

    -Alibaba backed
    :Cooperation with biggest e-commerce mean higher performance

    -Cooperation with western companies that have a huge interest in sales in china which is booming market and above billion people
    :IMO , US companies can't exist without China where is a lot of production and both sites need they own

    -Huge buyback
    : US$ 125 Million in first buyback, US$ 50 Million in 2nd one for US$ 80Million
    They just boughback 28.4 Million of shares for US$ 168.2 Million

    That mean a current avarage buyback price is 5,92 USD and company bought 36% of shares from total 78M outstanding shares in 2021 or 40.8% of outstanding share in 2022 ?

    In Future/Current buyback Company is buyingback shares for US$ 50Million and CEO Mr Mr. Vincent Qiu and co funder Mr. Junhua Wu informed to use personal funds to purchase up to US$5 million

    Current and future buyback by cash is equal to buy :

    US$ 80M of company cash to buyback shares = around 8 Million shares for 10USD avg
    US$ 6,8M of lasting money from first buyback = around 0.68 Million shares for 10USD avg
    US$ 5M of personal money of CEO and Co-founder = 0.5 Million share with 10 USD avg

    Total buyback in future/current mean buying = 9.18M shares with avg 10US$ per share to few millions if price would go higher >10 US$ / share

    If total float is 78M shares or 69,6M that mean company currently boughtback 36% of shares or 40,8%
    and there left 49,6M total float if there were 78M shares or 41.2M shares if total float is 69.6M

    With current buyback for US$ 91,8M company total float can be 49,6M - ca 9M shares = 41.6M shares or
    41.2M - ca 9M = 32.2M total shares, or even less if they would buy from market float

    I believe that bounce during 31.March is part of buyback

    If 2 most important people buying shares in these lows and company doing that for me that mean company healthy condition and knowledge about.

    Company is most undervalued from most of chinese companies after March bounce and can have a huge potential.
    With this buyback, repurchasing right note & starting possitive new from China can boost I can see extremely huge potential in this company.

    This is personal analysis and it's not a recommendation.
  • P
    Putang
    20f said something about parent having call options to purchase shares... means it should go up with less float imo
  • B
    BIDU_2500
    Assuming 5.45 ends up being the bottom, check out these stats. When that level hit, BZUN's market cap was only 375 million which was only 0.5 it's cash position, 0.4 it's book value, and 0.25 it's sales. That is the cheapest stock I have ever seen. This literally could go to 100/share and still be cheap. This rally may have just started.
  • B
    BIDU_2500
    Bzun made a very interesting move yesterday that could be a game change (finally). It’s something I’ve never seen before. They retired $166 million of senior notes 2 years early (they didn’t expire until May 2024). That doesn’t sound like a lot of money, but it’s currently 1/3 of BZUN’s entire valuation. Senior notes are very low interest rate notes (around 2%) that when they expire gives the option of either getting your initial investment back or you can take a share option set a predetermined price. What was interesting is the expiration price for the senior notes share was $52/share! That’s a 600% gain from here before anyone would have taken shares at expiration. So why do this senior note retirement instead of just a 166 million dollar share buy back?. I read the senior note agreement, and it also allowed the senior note investors “4.2 million hedge shares” to short BZUN during the senior note duration. That’s 4.2 million shares that senior note investors could borrow against their senior notes to short BZUN! So either BZUN management thinks their shares will be well above $52 in 2 years, or they decided to take those 4.2 million “hedge” shares off the table because the senior note investors were bringing down the stock price. Maybe a combination of both!
  • B
    BIDU_2500
    New 80 million share buyback should retire yet another 20% of the share float at current share prices. CEO also announced he is buying another 1% of the shares ($5 million dollars). To put this in perspective this would be proportional to Apple announcing a new 600 billion dollar buy back and Tim Cook buying 30 billion of stock. More great news for BZUN share holders.
  • B
    BIDU_2500
    Great move. I couldn't figure out initially why BZUN retired its senior notes instead of doing a 150 million dollar buyback (retiring 30% of the shares).. After diving through the fine details of the senior notes, it turns out BZUN lent approx 4 million "hedge" shares with the senior notes. By retiring the debt these 4.2 million shares also get retired. so basically that's about $37,000,000 worth of retired shares by retiring the debt. Plus they of course save the approx 2% interest fee. Not bad. I still would prefer they also announce a 100 million dollar share buyback with all of their cash at these prices, but with the. market cap so low right now they may only do a 50 million buy back again. Shorts are toast regardless.
  • B
    Benjo
    Lowered target from $6 to $2.
    Bearish
  • v
    vs
    20 dollar stock trading at 8. Place your bets
  • R
    Raymond
    ⭐ Top Bullish Charts | March 2022 💰💵📈

    https://chart-analysis.tools/Bullish-Charts
    Bullish
  • i
    iscius
    Federated hermes and SlobBank decimated their holdings, roughly 48MM shares dumped. This is why share price dropped. However, share buyback at close to 30M buyback closes the gap significantly. I am staggered share price remains low, but fortune building by large banks and the US economies inability to compete leads to this kind of scenario.
  • M
    Monkey
    There is actually no float left to short :D …like all other Chinese stocks …the option will reverse and then please fasten your seatbelt. It may take some time ..but it will happen. #bzun #bili #bidu #dada #jd #baba
  • T
    THE SCEPTIC
    DouYu International Holdings Limited
    WOOW
    HANG SENG TECH INDEX UP 20% LIMIT UP
    Key takeaways for #China's Financial Stability meeting:
    -China vows to keep the stock market stable, welcomes long-term institutional investors.
    -Will adopt effective policies to handle developers' risks.
    -Supports overseas share listings. Good dialogue in ADRs $DOYU $HUYA $IQ $BZUN $MOMO
    Bullish
  • T
    Tiger
    DouYu International Holdings Limited
    Feels dreamy that douyu is not around 12 $ yet, well done douyu. The Future is bright

    Hao Cao, Vice President of , said, “Looking ahead, we will remain proactive in exploring additional avenues for growth and monetization to deliver greater long-term returns for our #shareholders.” #DouYu #eSports

    Gross profit in the fourth quarter of 2021 increased by 34.3% to RMB244.7 million (US$38.4 million), from RMB182.2 million in the same period of 2020.

    Average mobile MAUs in the fourth quarter of 2021 increased by 7.2% to 62.4 million from 58.2 million in the same period of 2020. And much more good
    $DOYU $HUYA $IQ $BZUN $MOMO
    Bullish
  • T
    Tiger
    DouYu International Holdings Limited
    Billioner Investor --Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble.
    – Warren Buffett

    In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable.
    – Robert A

    Games are won by players who focus on the playing field –- not by those whose eyes are glued to the scoreboard. Warren Buffett

    The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator.
    – Benjamin Graham

    $DOYU $HUYA $MOMO $IQ $BZUN $DADA
    Bullish
  • B
    BIDU_2500
    March 2021 to March 2022 for Bzun was one of the worst 365 days for a stock that I've ever seen. Down 85% so far from peak to trough. But BZUN is so much better now than when it IPO'd for 10% more in 2015. It has almost as much cash as it's market cap and is trading at about 1/2 its sales. Thanks to share buy backs it has almost the same share float as it's IPO, but has 550% more revenue, stronger margins, many more company/store partners, and a much stronger footprint. Earnings tomorrow are critical for the next 3 to 6 months but regardless the long term looks bright if you can stomach the short term pain.
  • T
    Tiger
    DouYu International Holdings Limited
    $DOYU $HUYA $MOMO $IQ $BZUN Now folks, you know how a real bear market bottom feels, my tip is to continue to accumulate down here at the bottom because when it does turn around, it happens incredibly fast, so if you try time you will miss the fastest and biggest rise in a bull market
    Bullish
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