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Green Plains Inc. (GPRE)

NasdaqGS - NasdaqGS Real Time Price. Currency in USD
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29.07-0.07 (-0.24%)
At close: 04:00PM EDT
29.00 -0.07 (-0.24%)
After hours: 06:47PM EDT
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  • K
    Kevin
    What’s going on with the stock price? Didn’t think we’d see $33 after last quarter’s earnings. It’s been a wild ride this year.
    Bullish
  • B
    Brad
    $ALTO conversation
    Oil prices going back up is going to help people look at alternatives like E15 and E85 especially when they are a lot cheaper. A lot of oil needs to go to Europe to help them during their energy crisis this fall and that's not going to get any better this winter, so higher oil is hear. E15 and E85 will continue to roll out slowly to new stations but as they do it's just that much more demand for ethanol and the sector. ALTO trades at asset value so the downside is limited, but upside is huge especially with corn prices coming down which adds to margins, and higher ethanol prices, plus now they can get higher credits for CO2 sequestration too. Others like $GPRE and $ANDE in the sector should see the same benefits too.
  • K
    Kevin
    Shouldn’t the stock be much higher today with the SAF announcement?
    Bullish
  • P
    ProLiberty
    Mistaken correlation to oil is an opportunity.
    Bullish
  • B
    Brad
    $ALTO conversation
    Anyone following the E15 roll out? Seems like more stations are getting E15 option and consumers like that option being a lot cheaper than E10 gas, just do a google search, you'll see E15 use in Minnesota is hitting records, and it's rolling out to more stations across the country rapidly. That's a huge bump in demand for Ethanol use/consumption and should mean ALTO and $GPRE and $ANDE stay strong stocks for a while
  • S
    Sir John T
    Ka-Boom.....Great report. The transformation's effect is showing up nicely. Keep in mind that, when the transformation is complete in another 2 years, we GPRE will be recognized as a minimally cyclical growth story commanding a higher multiple of earnings. Speaking of earnings, I think we'll see earnings of $ 4.00-5.00/ share and at least a 20 multiple by year-end 2024 (or by 2025 at the latest). This story has some legs but has yet to be widely understood by the investment community.
  • K
    Kevin
    There should be some analyst upgrades and price target hikes coming.
    Bullish
  • I
    Incognito
    Do we get back to $40.00 in the morning. Looking solid right this moment.
  • E
    Eddy D
    Ethanol Producer – January 27, 2022
    By Erin Voegele. The USDA Rural Business-Cooperative Service is amending its program offering $700 million in COVID-19 aid to biofuel producers by allowing production to meet marketing obligations or fulfill or maintain essential markets to be included in the calculations of a biofuel producer’s market losses as a result of COVID-19. The agency is set to publish a notice of the amendment in the Federal Register on Jan. 28

    ====================================================
    waiting for a number E gallon lost in 2020....
    $700M over 2.8B gallons= 40c/gallon

    Mpney for the kitty for transformation now

    $adm, $Alto, $vlo
  • E
    Eddy D
    $ALTO conversation
    NEWS
    "Among the major funding details released Tuesday, $700 million will go to biofuel producers. The ethanol industry clamored for aid last year as demand for liquid fuel crashed during government shutdowns. Geoff Cooper, president and CEO of the Renewable Fuels Association, said the group is pleased with Tuesday's announcement and that the relief will come over the next two months."

    reported in Farmers DTN news feed

    MY GUESS... Industry ran at 50% capacity ie 7B in a 14B gallon market.
    Fair distribution is 10c per gallon not produced.
    If so Alto had a capacity of 600M gallons...( so half would yield $30M seems a fair share... my guess)
    Alto ended Idling 180mil gallons in 2021.

    GPRE was at 1.2B gallons capacity( I think). So $60M GUESS!

    VLO had 2.7-2.8Bil capacity. So $135M GUESS.

    ADM. REX, AMTX...

    2020 was a hard year... BUT this will repair a bit the balance sheet and fill up the kitty for some Carbon Capture Investment or Protein production,

    $GPRE
    $REX
    $AMTX
    $ADM
    $REX
    $ANDE
    VLO is also big producer. 2.7Billion (I think last year). So ps
    Bullish
  • E
    Eddy D
    $ALTO conversation
    What is shaking the Ethanol world , under under ?
    1. Driving rate is picking up.... but up to now nothing excessive not to keep up with.
    2. Based on corn and cane ... corn in high Demand due to China needs
    3. Invenotry is low ... industry is switching to alchohol, cut down run rate
    4. New Consciousness about CLIMATE! https://www.farmprogress.com/carbon/researchers-add-evidence-ethanols-low-carbon-benefits

    Worldwide? Yes

    1. US Corn Dec $6$+ Ethanol $2.34

    2. Braxil https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/050521-feature-brazil-center-south-hydrous-ethanol-enters-new-parabolic-price-phase

    3. Europe https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/agriculture/050521-eu-ethanol-corn-crush-margins-turn-negative-on-global-corn-rally

    CONCLUSION : Hold on to your producers!!! Ethaol might be better than STEEL... Luquid Steel !

    $ALTO,
    $ANDE
    $GPRE
    $REX
    $ADM
    Bullish
  • E
    Eddy D
    $ALTO conversation
    #GPRE earnings on the 3rd... listen for status of Alcohol USP.
    And ethanol margin.

    The other factor might flare-up like India, where wipes and sanytizer for Hospital use is in high demand.

    Alto is on the 12th. Looking for one more Growth action from managment ( yeast. protein...), or new export contract for alcohol ( worldwide marketing).
    Running at FULL Capacity to make up Spring and Summer driving !!!

    Then gravy: lower debt on Balance sheet, timing for sale of Stockton(?)
    Bullish
  • E
    Eddy D
    Driving volume has increased and so as ethanol volume. $GPP, an offspring of $GPRE will benefit from two factors
    1. Working down the loan GPRE took tp develop their 24 Program. By ear end . this quarter and next two), the debt will be paid off ($10M per quarter). Each quarter GPP balance sheet gets better

    2. Now that Ethanol volume is 2-3X of 2020 production rate,
    (from 400K in depth of 2020 to 1.1M Bpd in 2021), Top line frev increase

    As an MLP, GPP payoff can go back from $1.78/year to $3.00 WITH LOWER INTEREST payment and Higher Committed Volume...

    Second, GPP rails and trucks might ferry some Carbon as well , awaiting Pipeline construction for some OEM plants? Not all ethaol Plant locations will get pipes ($REX comment)

    $GPP go $20-24

    $ALTO
    Bullish
  • E
    Eddy D
    $ALTO conversation
    A lot of tidbits from GPRE call.
    . crush margin(s) of industry good, futures even higher
    - Industry inventory BEST positioned for spring and summer driving
    - oil extract from DDG worth more
    - Export to China not even yet in the demand stream (potential)

    This leaves room for ALto run at high run rate for the 140mil gallons of ethanol capacity. Statement from last call : every X cents of margin will yield Y cents ... Look it up.

    $GPRE
  • S
    Sir John T
    In time, the market will come to view GPRE as an Agricultural-Technology company, not an ethanol outfit. Meanwhile, the transition continues underway.

    Agri-Tech should command a P/E multiple in the 20-25 range based upon being able to produce more predictable earnings and cash flows with substantially less cyclicality than ethanol producers whose earnings, etc. are highly volatile and essentially unpredictable.

    By 2024-25, GPRE should be producing EPS in the ballpark of $4.00 per share...a 20-25 multiple equates to a target price of $80-100.
  • E
    Eddy D
    $AMD is enabling Gevo to convert its alcohol to Jet Fuel... per ADM earnings report.

    Interesting!!!
    $ALTO and $GPRE has EXTRA alcohol...
    They could also take a similar JV path, quicker...
  • E
    Eddy D
    $ALTO conversation
    EIA report volume for the week is right on track
    1. Higher volume out of the plants - get ready for Labor day surge
    2. Refinig running higher and higher ( 91+ %)
    3. Byproducts of corn ( biodiesel) is Up ... and Prices are UP

    By the way corn futures moderated !

    Margin widen, volume is up.
    Watch for another bump in earnings estimates.

    $GPRE
    $GPP
    $ADM
    $VLO
    $REX
    Bullish
  • E
    Eddy D
    $ALTO conversation
    EIA dat came out today. Ethanol inventory FLAT, Demand UP at Refinery level.
    Cash Price average $2.54 per gallon, driven by Opening / and probably some fulling up the tank for Memorial day.

    Meanwhile Corn adjusting down.

    Margin widening, profit double at plant level.

    Industry is on strong footing:,
    lower corn,
    good inventory, good demand, pace production ,
    good export(China), good price.

    Watch for P/E expansion from LOW LEVEL.

    $VLO
    $GPRE
    $ALTO
    $REX
    Bullish
  • m
    massimo
    $AMTX conversation
    Gevo and Alto did similar things (Capital raise) in the last weeks.

    In the following days the stock price went down, than it started to increase.

    Amtx will probably pay back some very high interest debts and than invest in new projects/technology

    $gevo $alto $gpre
    Bullish
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