The stock market is in a rough patch for the first time since the July to October period of last year. After the major indices hit their secondary highs on April 11 (the Nasdaq hit its all-time high that day), is has pretty much been 'down periscope.' Out of those trading six days, the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) have fallen between 0.9% and 2.1% on three (SPX) or four of those days. Despite the very steep downside slope of the Big 3, NYSE breadth actually bottomed on April 12 and 15, illustrating that the selling has been concentrated in Big Tech and the many stocks that were overly extended on a momentum basis.

The Federal Reserve has an impact on financial markets beyond the direction of short-term interest rates, including an influence on longer-term bond yields and the federal deficit. The Fed recently released its Statement of Operations for 2023 and reported interest income of $175 billion and $1 billion in other income, versus $281 billion in interest expense and $9 billion in operating expense. That's a loss of $114 billion, which adds to the U.S. deficit. The Fed is losing money right now because it earns approximately 2.2% in its securities portfolio and pays out approximately 5.2% for repurchase agreements and excess bank reserves. It may be quite a while before the Fed is able to return to profitable operations In the aftermath of its quantitative easing program to boost the economy during the pandemic, the Fed's balance sheet ballooned from $4 trillion to just shy of $9 trillion in 2022. For the past two years, the central bank has been reducing its asset levels by allowing $60 billion in Treasury securities to mature and $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities to run off each month. This "quantitative tightening" increases the supply of bonds available in the market, but has reduced the Fed's assets to $7.5 trillion. We anticipate the Fed will lower its monthly Treasury cap to $30-$40 billion, reinvesting the remainder into the market at higher rates. Over time, as balance sheet shrinks, the Fed's annual loss should decrease. The central bank certainly has a long way to go, if it ever wants to shrink the balance sheet back to the pre-pandemic crisis level.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks edged higher on Thursday morning following new economic data. The advance reading of U.S. GDP came in at 3.3%, down from 4.9% in 3Q but well ahead of the expected 2%. GDP was boosted by increases in consumer spending in both goods and services. On the housing front, new home sales for the month of December rose 8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 664,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in December 2023 was $413,200. The average sales price was $487,300. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P 500 was up 0.5% and the Nasdaq gained 0.6%. Crude oil traded above $76 per barrel, while gold fell to $2015 per ounce.

The U.S Dollar Index (USD) has traced out a small double top, closing at $106.72 on October 3 and November 1. USD broke down on November 3 for one day, rebounded back to its 21-day exponential average, and then saw nice downside follow-through in the middle of the month. USD fell slightly below its 200-day average on Monday, near $103.30, and bounced Tuesday to back above this key average. Based on the size of the top, we have seen a completed measured move for the greenback. Both sentiment and the COT data are neutral, despite the recent decline.

The Fed's decisions, actions, and signals about its balance sheet are having an impact primarily at the long end of the yield curve, while the actions and signals from the U.S. Treasury are having an impact across the curve. At the long end, the Fed is acting to keep rates higher by continuing to reduce its balance sheet (quantitative tightening) as opposed to buying fixed-income securities in the open market (quantitative easing). Last week, the Fed's balance sheet decline by $25 billion to $7.83 trillion. At this point, the balance sheet is lighter by more than $1 billion from the highs of 2022. We look for the balance sheet asset level to decline to 7.0 trillion over the next few quarters. At the front end of the curve (0-2 years), we expect rates to remain elevated until the Fed says that it sees inflation coming back down to at least a 2% handle. That's when the central bank may ease. Traders have started to anticipate this move, pushing the odds of a rate cut in May to 50% last week. The U.S. Treasury is also impacting the yield curve, as it steps up its pace of new issuance. It will need to borrow $776 billion in 4Q23 and $816 billion in 1Q24. Over the next few months, they will increase the sizes of the two-year and five-year auctions by $3 billion per month, the three-year by $2 billion, and the seven-year by $1 billion. Treasury plans to increase the auctions of longer-dated securities by a lower amount, focusing on the increases in the short/intermediate portion of the curve. The yield curve has been inverted for more than a year, but the inversion has lessened of late. We forecast a more-normal upward-sloping yield curve by year-end 2024.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks edged lower on Monday morning as investors awaited a heavy week of earnings from major Tech companies along with key inflation data from the Commerce Department on Friday. The consensus estimate currently calls for the core personal consumption expenditures price index or PCE, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, to rise 3.7% from the prior year in September, down slightly from 3.9% in August. While the inflation rate has slowed from 5.1% in September 2022, it remains above the central bank's 2.0% target. The Dow, the S&P, and the Nasdaq were all down about 0.2%. Crude oil fell 1% to $87 per barrel while gold fell $9 to trade near $1985 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks edged higher on Tuesday morning as investors awaited earnings from Microsoft and Alphabet after the close. Consumer confidence data was stronger than expected. The Conference Board said that its consumer confidence index rose to 117.0 in July, up from 110.1 in June and above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 112.0. The reading was the highest in two years. The Dow was flat, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.3%. Crude oil traded near $79 per barrel, while gold fell slightly to $1961 per ounce.

This was one of our 10 Investment Themes for 2023 and remains relevant, as the S&P 500 is up 13% year-to-date. The long-term trend in the U.S. stock market has been higher; since 1980, stocks have turned in a positive performance almost 80% of the time. The average annual gain has been 13%. That was not so in 2022. Yes, the S&P 500 set an all-time record. But it peaked on January 3 and the rest of the year was downhill. The stock market entered a bear market in June 2022. Bond returns weren't much better, as spiking inflation pushed long-term interest rates higher and the Fed raised short-term rates to try to bring inflation down. The turmoil posed a challenge for Wall Street firms, as investment returns were dismal, the IPO market dried up, and M&A activity disappeared. By year-end, Wall Street firms such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were announcing layoffs. We are more optimistic for the financial markets in 2023. Equity valuations are lower in the wake of the selloff in 2022. There is pent-up demand for IPOs and M&A once the environment improves. Finally, consensus expectations call for weak earnings and investment returns in 2023, setting markets up for a positive surprise. As the outlook improves, we think that investor demand will pick up for investment banks, exchange operators, and money-management firms. We recently raised our sector rating on Financial Services to Over-Weight. Stocks in our coverage universe that we believe are positioned to benefit include the following.

Stocks rose modestly on Friday morning, extending Thursday's rally. Exxon shares rose after the company reported strong 1Q earnings that topped the consensus forecast, though sales were down from the prior year. Chevron also posted strong earnings, helped by growth in its refining business. Amazon shares fell, despite strong first-quarter results, on concerns about slowing growth in the company's cloud business. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.2%. Crude oil rose more than 2% to $76.50 per barrel, while gold traded near $1999 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks extended their Fed-driven rally on Thursday, led by strong gains in the Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology sectors. Meta Platforms jumped 23%, despite disappointing 4Q earnings, as investors focused on the company's better-than-expected revenue, cost-cutting efforts, and new share buyback plan. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 3,000 to 183,000 for the week ended January 28, below the Reuters consensus forecast of 200,000. The data came ahead of the government's January employment report on Friday morning. The consensus estimate calls for 185,000 new payroll jobs, down from 223,000 in December, and an unemployment rate of 3.6%, up from 3.5% a month earlier. The Dow fell 0.11%, the S&P rose 1.47%, and the Nasdaq soared 3.25%. Crude oil traded near $76 per barrel, while gold fell $16 to $1927 per ounce.

Each December, Argus surveys its team of analysts, seeking their best ideas for the upcoming year. The Argus Research team draws on its experience (the average analyst has 18 years of Wall Street experience and 10 year at Argus), as well as the company's proprietary six-point research framework and earnings and valuation models to make the calls. Argus analysts cover the waterfront (every sector from Energy to Healthcare to Consumer to Technology), so each sector is represented. This year's list includes some long-time favorites, as well as some recent upgrades and new initiations. The list includes mostly large-caps and mid-caps, and both growth and value stocks. We will be going over the list in more detail during our January webinar and detailing why each stock has been selected by the covering analyst. In the interim, more information on each of these BUY-rated stocks is available on our website.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

With earnings season under way, corporate insiders mostly have moved to the sidelines as a result of trading restrictions now in force. In reviewing the current insider-trading data from Vickers Stock Research, we note that transaction volume is predictably low, with about 740 insider transactions meeting the criteria for inclusion in the current Weekly Insider Report. When insiders are not restricted, weekly transaction volume can be close to 2000.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The volume of weekly insider transactions remains very low, which is to be expected as earnings season is in full swing and executives, directors, and beneficial owners are broadly prohibited from trading. But as was the case last week, the current data from Vickers Stock Research provides a clear picture of insider sentiment that remains balanced and seemingly optimistic.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks plunged again on Tuesday morning, reversing Monday's gains amid continued concerns about inflation, Fed policy, the war in Ukraine, and the expanding pandemic in China. Housing market data was weak. The Commerce Department said that U.S. new home sales fell 8.6% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 763,000 units, below the Reuters consensus forecast of 765,000. On the earnings front, PepsiCo shares rose slightly after the company posted better-than-expected 1Q results and raised its full-year sales guidance. The Dow fell 1.7%, the S&P 2.1%, and the Nasdaq 3.2%. Crude oil traded near $101 per barrel, while gold rose to $1904 per ounce.

The major stock indices did not make any headway last week, as gains on Monday and Tuesday were lost on Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and QQQs responded nicely after falling to their 10-day exponential moving averages. Stocks needed a break after an 11-day tear higher following the bottom on March 14.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Our rating on the Financial Services sector is Over-Weight. Based on positive vaccine developments and actions from the administration in Washington, interest rates have started to move higher at the long end of the yield curve. We expect banks to benefit from wider net interest margins and lower loan-loss provisions as the economy normalizes. We also expect insurance companies to generate higher income in their investment portfolios. The sector accounts for 10.7% of the S&P 500, down from 16.3% following the exclusion of Real Estate stocks. Over the past five years, the weighting has ranged from 9% to 17%. We think the sector should account for 11%-12% of diversified portfolios. Here is how we use our analysts' Financial Services sector ideas in our Focus List and Model Portfolios. All of the following stocks currently are rated BUY at Argus.

After a very rough patch from mid-January until almost the end of the month, price action has calmed down, the VIX volatility index has cascaded to 20 from an intraday high of 39 on January 24, the 15-day rate-of-change on the S&P 500 has moved to near 1% from -9%, and the S&P 500 has traced out a higher low (and is not far from putting in a higher high). Interestingly, the falling 50-day average and the lower channel line that had been in place since March both sit just above (at 4,612) and represent potential resistance.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks fluctuated on Wednesday morning following new employment data and earnings reports from a range of major companies. Payroll provider ADP said that U.S. private sector jobs fell by 301,000 in January, down from an increase of 776,000 in December. The reading was below the consensus forecast, which called for the addition of 180,000 jobs, and was the first decline since December 2020. Alphabet shares rose more than 6% after the company posted better-than-expected 4Q sales and earnings and announced a 20-for-1 stock split. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq was flat. Crude oil traded near $88 per barrel, while gold rose $8 to $1809 per ounce.

Often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market is dividend income, which is an important element of total return. Between 1930 and 2012, dividend income accounted for 42% of total return of the S&P 500, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for 15%-20% of returns. Still, in 2018, dividend payments softened the blow when most market indices declined as the Federal Reserve hiked rates. But not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks.

What happened to the September sell-off? A month ago, the S&P 500 was in the process of falling off all-time highs (ATHs) set early in September. From the ATH of 4,537 on 9/2/21, the '500' fell to the 4,350s on 9/21/21; staged what would be a failed rally to just under 4,450 on 9/24/21; and then made twin lows right around 4,300 on 9/30/21 and 10/4/21.

Blackstone is one of the world's largest alternative asset managers with $731 billion in total asset under management, including $528 billion in fee-earning asset under management, at the end of September 2021. The company has four core business segments: private equity (27% of fee-earning AUM, and 32% of base management fees, so far during 2021); real estate (33% and 39%); credit & insurance (25% and 15%); and hedge fund solutions (15% and 14%). While the firm primarily serves institutional investors (87% of AUM), it does serve clients in the high-net-worth channel (13%). Blackstone operates through 25 offices located in the Americas (8), Europe and the Middle East (9), and the Asia-Pacific region (8).

This edition features pet healthcare; utilities' dividends; hotel REITs; and notes from AutoNation and new coverage Marqeta and Blackstone.

The Federal Reserve wrapped up its Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday and, as expected, made no changes to its current accommodative stance. But change may be coming soon. Fed Chairman Powell commented that the central bank has met its goal of lifting inflation above its former 2.0% target, at least temporarily, and that it is 50%-60% toward its goal of restoring pre-COVID employment levels. Thus, at its next meeting in early November, the Fed may be in position to announce that it will slow the pace of the asset purchases that it has undertaken for the past 18 months in order to keep long-term rates low and credit markets functioning. Whether or not the Fed starts tapering at the November or December meeting, we expect the program to be wound down by mid-2022, leaving the Fed's balance sheet above the $8 trillion level. As for the Fed's other recession-fighting tool -- the currently low federal funds rate - Fed governors are now indicating that the first fed funds rate hike may occur in late 2022, depending, of course, on the state of the economy. The Fed's dot-plot forecasts call for as many as 6-7 fed funds rate hikes by the end of 2024.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks edged higher on Thursday as investors weighed a new round of earnings reports along with employment and housing market data. AT&T posted better-than-expected 2Q results, reflecting strong growth in wireless subscribers, and raised its full-year guidance. Texas Instruments also topped consensus estimates, though the shares fell 5% on a lower-than-expected 3Q sales forecast. On the housing front, the National Association of Realtors said that sales of existing homes rose 1.4% to an annualized 5.86 million units in June, slightly below the consensus forecast. First-time jobless claims rose to 419,000, up from the prior week and above consensus. Continuing claims fell by 29,000 to 3.236 million. The Dow rose 0.07%, the S&P 0.20%, and the Nasdaq 0.36%. Crude oil rose 2% to $71.50 per barrel, while gold rose $4 to $1808 per ounce.

The second quarter in 2021 was a good one for stocks, as the S&P 500 increased more than 8.5%. The average stock in the Argus Universe of Coverage advanced 5.5%, and the median stock gained 4.0%. The average Argus BUY-rated stock increased 6.0%, while the average HOLD-rated stock rose 4.0%. Will investors continue to favor value in 2021? Will small-caps continue their recent strong run? Given low interest rates, we expect growth stocks will resume outperformance over time -- but think this may be the one year in five when value leads. Investors seeking value are encouraged to focus on dividends and look for yields in the 3%-4% range. As for small-caps, the promise of the vaccine is encouraging for these companies, which typically don't have the gilt-edged balance sheets of large-caps and are more dependent on a strong U.S. economy. Small-cap valuations remain depressed despite the recent run, and this group continues to look well-positioned in 2021.

Our rating on the Financial Services sector is Over-Weight. With market optimism rising on positive vaccine developments and the new administration in Washington, interest rates have started to move higher at the long end of the yield curve. We expect banks to benefit from wider net-interest margins and lower loan-loss provisions as the economy normalizes, and insurance companies to generate higher income in their investment portfolios. The sector now accounts for 11.4% of the S&P 500. Over the past five years, the weighting has ranged from 10% to 17%. We think the sector should account for 12%-15% of diversified portfolios. Here is how we use our analysts' Financial Services sector ideas in our Focus List and Model portfolios. All of the following stocks are rated BUY at Argus.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

If we had to take part in a debate about insider sentiment, we could easily support the argument that insider sentiment is improving. We also could easily support the argument that insider sentiment is not improving. The factors involved in said debate are the absolute values of insider-sentiment gauges from Vickers Stock Research, the trends for those values, and the rate of change for those trends.