Stock indices dipped in October 2023, with the S&P 500 falling a sharp 10% off summer highs. Looking at 13F filings of big institutional portfolios, we see that the big guns were busy last quarter taking advantage of that dip. Citadel Advisors went on a buying spree, adding to its $100 billion portfolio across a range of sectors. As did D.E. Shaw, adding to its $67 billion portfolio. Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, analyzes insider trading and institutional stock ownership. Form 13-Fs, which institutions must file to report their holdings, are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters and have come in for 4Q24. We review 13Fs of major activists to determine core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing is now less about generating a short-term return and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Based on data from Vickers, here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, as well as other high-profile money managers.

Stocks were mixed on Friday morning following the January jobs report. In January, nonfarm payroll employment rose 353,000 and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%. The jobs count is up from 216,000 in December and well ahead of the expected 185,000, and the belief had been that unemployment would inch up to 3.8%. The S&P 500 rose 0.9%, the Dow was nearly flat and the Nasdaq gained 1.5%. Crude oil traded just above $72 per barrel, while gold fell $17 to $2053 per ounce.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, analyzes insider trading and institutional stock ownership. Form 13-Fs, which institutions must file to report their holdings, are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters and have come in for 3Q23. We review 13Fs of major activists to determine core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing is now less about generating a short-term return and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Activists recently made progress with investments into companies such as FedEx and Union Pacific. Based on Vickers data, here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, as well as other high-profile money managers.

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced in January 2020 that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced in January 2020 that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

Stocks rose again on Wednesday morning as investors weighed new retail sales and producer price data, along with strong earnings from Target. The Commerce Department said that U.S. retail sales fell 0.1% in October after a revised 0.9% increase in September. The Reuters consensus forecast had called for a decline of 0.3%. Meanwhile, producer prices pointed to continued progress on inflation. The Labor Department said that its producer price index for final demand fell 0.5% in October, the largest decrease since April 2020, after a 0.4% increase a month earlier. The Dow rose 0.3%, the S&P 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 0.2%. Crude oil fell nearly 2% to $77 per barrel, while gold traded near $1965 per ounce.

The first-quarter earnings season has passed the halfway mark with 292 (or 58%) of S&P 500 companies having reported results through August 1. An impressive 81% of those companies exceeded earnings expectations, while the blended (actual and still to report) earnings decline is now projected at 5.9%, according to Refinitv. The Consumer Discretionary sector still leads with 36% earnings growth, while Energy is now by far the weakest sector, with a 48% profit decline. Our analysts are always on the lookout for companies that boost their outlooks during earnings season. Management's ability to "raise guidance" can often be a catalyst to market-beating returns in the quarters ahead. Here is an initial list of BUY-rated companies in Argus Coverage for which management has raised guidance or increased its outlook during the 2Q23 EPS reporting season.

Hot July: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Stocks

Stocks were seesawing but mostly higher on Wednesday morning following cooler inflation data. The Labor Department said that its consumer price index rose 4.9% from the prior year in April, below the consensus estimate of 5.0% and down from 5.0% in March. The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy costs, rose a higher 5.5%, in line with consensus and down slightly from the prior month. On the earnings front, Airbnb shares fell sharply, despite solid 1Q results, after the company issued disappointing revenue guidance.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Just when it looked like the rise in interest rates since early February was going to break the back of the stock market and send indices below support from their important 200-day averages, prices rallied and turned an ugly week into a positive one. From the intraday low last Thursday to Friday's close, the S&P 500 (SPX) jumped 3%, while the Nasdaq popped 3.7%, and the Nasdaq 100 powered ahead by 3.9%. All three indices undercut their 200-day averages by a minor amount on Thursday before buyers stepped in.

Stocks fell in volatile trading on Tuesday morning following new inflation data. The Labor Department reported that its consumer price index rose 6.4% from the prior year in January, down slightly from a 6.5% increase in December. Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI rose at a 5.6% annual rate last month, down from 5.7% in December but above the consensus forecast of 5.5% growth. The Dow fell 1.2%, the S&P 0.9%, and the Nasdaq 0.8%. Crude oil fell more than 1% to $79 per barrel, while gold traded near $1862 per ounce.

Stocks rallied on Wednesday morning following earnings reports from Nike and FedEx and new consumer confidence data. Nike shares rose more than 13% after the company reported better-than-expected fiscal 2Q results and progress in clearing excess inventory. FedEx rose more than 4% after posting above-consensus earnings and pledging aggressive cost cuts. The Conference Board said that its consumer confidence index rose to 108.3 in December, up from a revised 101.4 in November and above the Bloomberg consensus forecast. The Dow rose 1.5%, the S&P 1.4%, and the Nasdaq 1.5%. Crude oil rose more than 2% to $78 per barrel, while gold traded near $1826 per ounce.

Stocks surged on Thursday following positive inflation data, recording their strongest one-day advance since 2020. The Labor Department said that its consumer price index rose 7.7% from the prior year in October, down from 8.2% in September and below the consensus forecast of 7.9%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, also rose at a lower-than-expected 6.3% rate. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 7,000 to 225,000 for the week ended November 5, slightly above the consensus forecast. Continuing claims rose to 1.493 million, also up from the prior week and above consensus. The Dow soared 3.70%, the S&P 5.54%, and the Nasdaq 7.35%. Crude oil rose slightly to $86 per barrel, while gold jumped $47 to $1760 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Thursday morning, led by declines in the Energy and Consumer Staples sectors. First-time unemployment claims rose by 6,000 to 260,000 for the week ended July 30 and were slightly above the consensus forecast. Continuing claims also rose by 48,000 to 1.416 million. On the earnings front, Conoco posted better-than expected second-quarter results and said that it would substantially boost returns to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil fell more than 2% to $88.50 per barrel, while gold jumped $27 to $1804 per ounce.

As we start the second half of 2022, we remain disciplined by looking at stocks and sectors in which we have confidence. Stocks took a beating in the first half, and at times like this, investing principles are critical. We focus on fundamentals, diverse portfolios, strong managements, and growth stocks trading at reasonable prices. This week we look at Industrials, having examined Basic Materials last week. These are perhaps the two least flashy sectors -- and while Basic Materials and Industrials may seem boring, we don't consider the stocks on this week's list to be dull. The companies we've selected within Industrials have solid fundamentals and growth outlooks. Challenges in the supply chain persist, but have eased, and the U.S. trade deficit signaled some shifting in the last report. Exports rose 1.2% in May to $255 billion. This is a great opportunity for U.S. companies, as international buyers look towards American products. The Industrials sector accounts for 8% of the S&P 500, and includes industries such as aerospace and defense, construction and building products, heavy equipment and machinery, and transportation. Over the past five years, the sector weighting has ranged from 7% to 12%. We think investors should Over-Weight the sector and consider allocating about 8% of their diversified portfolios to stocks in the group. The sector is slightly outperforming the S&P 500 thus far in 2022, with a loss of 16.5% compared to the S&P's loss of 18%. The following are some of our BUY-rated Industrials companies, all of which are rated BUY, have a Financial Strength rating of Medium-High or higher, and pay a dividend. We feel these companies are best in class for the sector.

Reading Tea Leaves on the Labor Market |Jobs Friday

The stock market kicked off February with a winning week, though 2022 remains deeply in the loss column. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down by 21 points, or 0.06%. The S&P 500 was up 0.52%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.58%. For the week, the DJIA was up 364 points, or 1.05%, the S&P 500 was up 1.55%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 2.38%. Year-to-date, the Dow is down 3.44%; the S&P 500 is off 5.57%; and the Nasdaq Composite is on the edge of correction territory, down 9.89%.

It's been over two months since we last commented on precious metals in the space, as the breakout in November failed miserably. While we hope (for the sake of gold bugs) that we don't jinx them again, there are some constructive things going on in the metals complex. GLD bounced off its mid-December low and is back above its 50- and 200-day averages. SLV lost and then recaptured the bottom of its range going back to September 2020 and is now challenging the underside of its 50-day average.

Investors liked what they heard from the Federal Reserve, and stocks took off like one of those new rockets the billionaires are making so they can enjoy a couple of minutes in "space." The Fed increased its taper to $30 billion/month and expects three rate hikes in 2022 and three in 2023. While the Fed will still be purchasing Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, the pace will slow. But the liquidity pump is still open. The taper amount probably was baked into the market, but the six rate hikes over the next two years seems more hawkish than the market was expecting. Still, with the fed funds rate at 0%, six 0.25% hikes gets us to a whopping 1.5% if the Fed does indeed follow this path. Historically, that is still extremely low. What to do about the almost $9 trillion Fed balance sheet is the real question.

We continue to keep a close eye on market breadth, as longer-term measures of breadth remain supportive of higher stock prices, while intermediate-term breadth has improved and is mildly bullish.

Over the weekend, the House of Representatives approved the largest public works bill since the 1950s. The bipartisan trillion-dollar bill, which was passed by the Senate in August, now goes to President Biden's desk for signing. The plan focuses on improving the country's infrastructure, from roads and bridges to water systems and electricity grids. It also targets the auto industry, with a focus on electric vehicles and charging stations. In the power sector, Biden's goal is to achieve a carbon-free power industry by 2035. To improve energy efficiency in buildings, he is looking to retrofit four million buildings in the four years. Elsewhere, business Services companies also stand to benefit; bond issuance should pick up given that the infrastructure spending plan will be financed at least in part by bonds; and payroll companies could get a boost processing more paychecks as the infrastructure plan creates "millions of good paying jobs." All-in-all, some of the companies that we think may benefit include the following.

Stocks finished mostly higher on Thursday as investors weighed a new round of earnings reports and continued to assess the Fed's tapering plan. Employment data was strong. The Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 269,000 for the week ended October 30, down from 283,000 a week earlier and below the Bloomberg consensus of 275,000. Continuing claims of 2.105 million were also down from the prior week and below consensus. The data came ahead of the government's October employment report on Friday morning. The consensus calls for the addition of 450,000 new payroll jobs after an increase of 194,000 in September, and a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.7%. The Dow fell 0.09%, the S&P rose 0.42%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.81%. Crude oil fell 2% to $79 per barrel, while gold rose $29 to $1793 per ounce.

Stocks finished mostly higher on Thursday as investors weighed a new round of earnings reports and continued to assess the Fed's tapering plan. Employment data was strong. The Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 269,000 for the week ended October 30, down from 283,000 a week earlier and below the Bloomberg consensus of 275,000. Continuing claims of 2.105 million were also down from the prior week and below consensus. The data came ahead of the government's October employment report on Friday morning. The consensus calls for the addition of 450,000 new payroll jobs after an increase of 194,000 in September, and a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.7%. The Dow fell 0.09%, the S&P rose 0.42%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.81%. Crude oil fell 2% to $79 per barrel, while gold rose $29 to $1793 per ounce.

Stocks continued their rally on Thursday morning, a day after the Federal Reserve indicated that it would likely begin tapering bond purchases in November and conclude the program by mid-2022. It also suggested that it would raise interest rates next year in response to higher-than-expected inflation. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose to 351,000 for the week ended September 18, up from 335,000 a week earlier and above the consensus forecast of 320,000. The Dow rose 1.5%, the S&P 1.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.9%. Crude oil rose to nearly $73 per barrel, while gold traded near $1753 per ounce.

Stocks continued their rally on Thursday morning, a day after the Federal Reserve indicated that it would likely begin tapering bond purchases in November and conclude the program by mid-2022. It also suggested that it would raise interest rates next year in response to higher-than-expected inflation. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose to 351,000 for the week ended September 18, up from 335,000 a week earlier and above the consensus forecast of 320,000. The Dow rose 1.5%, the S&P 1.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.9%. Crude oil rose to nearly $73 per barrel, while gold traded near $1753 per ounce.

Last week, we detailed positive trends in insider sentiment, even in the face of light transaction volume (the result of trading restrictions during earnings season). This week, Vickers Stock Research reports that insider transaction volume has started to increase as earnings season comes to a close. Broadly put, the positive short-term trends from last week have not held, though the current data is not bad enough to damage longer-term trends.

As we do each week, we'll offer an update on the ongoing trends in insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research, while also pulling out new insights gleaned from the weekly data.

President Joe Biden is preparing to announce an infrastructure-rebuilding plan that he estimates will create up to 10 million clean energy jobs. The following areas of the economy stand to benefit from the government spending, which could total as much as $4 trillion. The first element of the plan is improving the country's infrastructure, from roads and bridges to water systems and electricity grids.

Total Public Debt owed by the U.S. federal government was $26.9 trillion at the end of 4Q20, up 16% from 4Q19 as the government spent to keep the economy afloat amid the coronavirus pandemic. Outside of U.S. investors, the two largest holders of U.S. public debt are Japan, which owns 5% of the debt, and China, which owns 4%. The other nations among the top 10 holders own 8% of the debt, so the top 10 holders collectively own 17%. The total of U.S. debt owned by foreign holders is $7.1 trillion, or about 26%. We suspect these holders are unlikely to push the U.S. government hard on reducing debt levels or to dump their holdings into the bond markets. Japan's holders are long-term in nature. China has no reason to sell a large portion of its holdings, as the increase in supply would merely depress the price of the balance of its holdings, and may even weaken the dollar further, setting off trade repercussions. Local U.S. holders can rest (relatively) assured that the government's printing presses will keep pumping out money until all are paid. We expect to see strong demand for U.S. fixed-income securities (and thus low interest rates) in the quarters ahead.

There's nothing like a week-long selling jag to get the bullish juices flowing once again. After the S&P 500 set a new all-time closing high at 3,855 on 1/25/21, GameStop hysteria seized the market. A relatively small set of retail investors, embracing YOLO (you only live once), pushed GME to unsustainable highs in the mid-$300s. Although this occurred among a small group of investors in a small set of stocks, fear grew that an equity asset bubble had been discovered, and broad selling took over. By 1/29/21, the final trading day in January, the S&P 500 had fallen 3.7% or by about 140 points.

Total public debt owed by the U.S. federal government was $26.9 trillion at the end of 3Q, up 16% from year-end as the government spends to keep the economy afloat amid the coronavirus pandemic. Outside of U.S. investors, the two largest holders of U.S. public debt are the Japan, which owns 5% of the debt, and China, which owns 4%. The other nations among the Top 10 holders own 8% of the debt, so the top 10 holders collectively own 17%. The grand total of U.S. debt owned by foreign holders is $7 trillion, or about 26%. We suspect these holders are unlikely to push the U.S. government hard on reducing debt levels or to dump their holdings into the bond markets. The local U.S. holders can rest (relatively) assured that the government's printing presses will keep pumping out money until all are paid. Japan's holders are long-term in nature and China has no reason to sell a large portion of its holdings: the increase in supply would merely depress the price of the balance of its holdings, and may even weaken the dollar further, setting off trade repercussions. We expect to see strong demand for U.S. fixed-income securities (and thus low interest rates) in the quarters ahead.

Damaged but Resilient Economy Carried Stocks across 2020

COVID-19 and Election Uncertainty: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Markets

Second-Quarter Earnings: Is this the Bottom?

Second-Quarter Earnings: Is this the Bottom?

Carrying On: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Markets

Carrying On: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Markets

Growth stocks may be outperforming value, again, in 2020. But in an environment of historically low interest rates (and with the coronavirus and economic shutdown seemingly poised to keep them low for a long time), many investors are still searching for high levels of income, which can often be found in value stocks. When we look for attractive high-yield/value stocks at Argus, we look for low valuations on metrics such as price/earnings, price/sales, price/book, yield and price/cash flow. But we also look for companies with clean balance sheets, high levels of profitability, cash-flow generation, and an experienced management teams. We seek to avoid companies in industries that are in secular decline, or with dividend yields that are so high that the payout is clearly at risk. To us, right now, that level is 8%-9%-plus. That said, many value companies may face a substantial near-term industry problem. Based on numerous requests from clients, we have designed a portfolio of companies followed by Argus Research analysts that are BUY-rated on a long-term (five-year) basis, have a Financial Strength rating of at least Medium, and have a yield of 3.5% or higher.

Growth stocks may be outperforming value, again, in 2020. But in an environment of historically low interest rates (and with the coronavirus and economic shutdown seemingly poised to keep them low for a long time), many investors are still searching for high levels of income, which can often be found in value stocks. When we look for attractive high-yield/value stocks at Argus, we look for low valuations on metrics such as price/earnings, price/sales, price/book, yield and price/cash flow. But we also look for companies with clean balance sheets, high levels of profitability, cash-flow generation, and an experienced management teams. We seek to avoid companies in industries that are in secular decline, or with dividend yields that are so high that the payout is clearly at risk. To us, right now, that level is 8%-9%-plus. That said, many value companies may face a substantial near-term industry problem. Based on numerous requests from clients, we have designed a portfolio of companies followed by Argus Research analysts that are BUY-rated on a long-term (five-year) basis, have a Financial Strength rating of at least Medium, and have a yield of 3.5% or higher.

Growth stocks may be outperforming value, again, in 2020. But in an environment of historically low interest rates (and with the coronavirus and economic shutdown seemingly poised to keep them low for a long time), many investors are still searching for high levels of income, which can often be found in value stocks. When we look for attractive high-yield/value stocks at Argus, we look for low valuations on metrics such as price/earnings, price/sales, price/book, yield and price/cash flow. But we also look for companies with clean balance sheets, high levels of profitability, cash-flow generation, and an experienced management teams. We seek to avoid companies in industries that are in secular decline, or with dividend yields that are so high that the payout is clearly at risk. To us, right now, that level is 8%-9%-plus. That said, many value companies may face a substantial near-term industry problem. Based on numerous requests from clients, we have designed a portfolio of companies followed by Argus Research analysts that are BUY-rated on a long-term (five-year) basis, have a Financial Strength rating of at least Medium, and have a yield of 3.5% or higher.