The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Our list this week shines a light on international stocks. We sorted our database for large-cap international stocks valued above $50 billion and with a High or Medium-High Argus rating for Financial Strength. We then sorted further, looking for stocks in the group that are furthest from their 52-week high, suggesting value. Timing matters, of course, and stocks have been on a tear lately. We ran the same list a month ago and note some shifting today. Roche Holding was on our initial list, but we have since downgraded it to a HOLD. Novo Nordisk has had tremendous attention from investors, but was not on our previous list as it was hitting new highs -- and has fallen from those highs in the past few weeks. Here is our current list of Argus large-cap BUY-rated international stocks that seem to offer value.

Stocks rallied on Thursday, extending yesterday's gains on rate-cut optimism. Turning to stocks, shares of Apple (AAPL) are down after the U.S. Department of Justice filed a lawsuit accusing the company of engineering a monopoly in the smartphone market. Bank stocks are up today as investors are optimistic that the anticipated rate cuts this year will drive more transactions. The S&P 500 is up 0.3%, the Dow is up 0.7%, the Nasdaq is up 0.2%, and the Russell 2000 is up 1.16%.

Inflation Taps the Market on the Shoulder

After the heavy-volume, bearish reversal on March 8 for the Nasdaq, Nasdasq 100 (QQQ), semiconductors, and most of the Technology sector, we had some downside follow-through for the first time since this monster rally started in October 2023. The QQQs and the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) have lost their 21-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) by a minor amount. Still, for more than four months, the 21-day EMA has been quickly recaptured whenever this happened.

Determining a realistic estimate for the size of the Artificial Intelligence industry is a challenge, as there is simply no measurable unit of AI output comparable to barrels of oil or tons of steel. As well, much of the AI development occurs within laboratories and at universities - and results are measured in tangible progress against AI objectives, not dollars or units of output. In the corporate world, nearly all pure-play AI companies service micro-niches, have little measurable revenue, and are deeply unprofitable. Argus believes that much of the revenue and most of the profitability from the AI industry is attributable to several giant U.S. and a few international companies. These primarily operate in growth sectors such as Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary. Key companies include Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Meta Platforms, IBM, Alphabet, Salesforce, Nvidia, and Qualcomm in the U.S. China has Baidu, Tencent, and Alibaba all developing AI solutions. There is also significant activity among companies pursuing advances in IoT, vehicle electrification, autonomous driving, automation, and connectivity for manufacturing, warehousing, construction, and other areas. Argus has derived a model of the size and scope of the global AI industry, based on our coverage of major publicly traded players and most of the mid-tier players, along with our industry knowledge of private players. We estimate the global industry annual revenue amounted to $90-$100 billion in 2021, and expect that to grow at a 40% CAGR through 2030, when it is expected to reach $1.8 trillion. Annual growth is expected to decelerate from the low- to mid-40% range in the immediate years, to the mid-30% range for years toward the end of the survey period.

Global economic growth is expected to pick up slightly in 2025, according to the World Economic Outlook from the International Monetary Fund. The moderate acceleration is attributed largely to emerging markets, led by India and China, and also the expectation that global inflation will continue to moderate. In its recent report, the IMF notes "inflation is falling faster than expected in most regions." The world economy is expected to expand 3.1% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025. Though moving in the right direction, these rates are below the long-term historical global growth rate of 3.8%, due to the impact of inflation and higher interest rates. For industrialized economies (the U.S., Europe, Japan, etc.) growth is forecast at a low 1.5% in 2024, followed by 1.8% in 2025. The U.S. is expected to expand at a pace of 2.1% in 2024, followed by a positive but-somewhat-sluggish 1.7% in 2025. For emerging economies (China, India, Russia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, etc.), forecasts call for 4.1% growth in 2024 and 4.2% in 2025. The clear leaders are expected to be India and China, with average growth for the two years of 6.5% and 4.6%, respectively, in 2024, with India expected to maintain that pace while China slows to 4.1% in 2025. These growth nations have different drivers: population growth in India and productivity growth in China. We factor these global growth forecasts into our asset-allocation models, and based in part on the slow global growth rates, we continue to recommend that investors over-weight portfolios toward U.S.-based securities. Global stocks generally represent value, but the risks to growth are high.

U.S. stocks were mixed intraday on Friday as investors digested new economic data. In February, total nonfarm payrolls rose 275,000 according to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics report. This was higher than the expected 198,000, and higher than last month's 229,000 (revised down from 353,000). While a hotter-than-expected jobs reading initially sparked a sell-off, the rise in unemployment on the next line of the report led stocks to bounce back. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9% in February, rising 0.2% from the month prior. In February, total nonfarm payrolls rose 275,000 according to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics report. This was higher than the expected 198,000, and higher than last month's 229,000 (revised down from 353,000). The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9% in February, rising 0.2% from the month prior.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Make it 16 out of 18 weeks to the upside, as the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) continued to witness relentless buying in the week ended March 1. Stocks were flat until the final two days of that week, when inflation worries were squashed by the January PCE report. It wasn't just stocks that reacted, as metals, oil, and bonds all popped on March 1. Bitcoin surged 21%.

Management's ability to "raise guidance" can often be a catalyst for market-beating returns in the quarters ahead. The fourth-quarter earnings season has crossed the 95% mark and is wrapping up, with blended earnings (actual results and the consensus for those still to report) showing a year-over-year gain of almost 10%, according to Refinitiv. That is considerably better than the 4%-7% advance expected at the start of the earnings period. Leading the outperformance were strong gains in Communication Services earnings, up 53%. On the flipside, Energy (like last quarter) is performing the worst, down 22%. Our analysts are always on the lookout for companies that boost their outlooks during earnings season. Here is an initial list of BUY-rated companies in Argus' Fundamental Universe of Coverage at which management raised guidance or increased its outlook during the 4Q23 EPS reporting season.

Depending on today's close, the three major indices might achieve 16 positive weeks out of 18 on their northern glide path. So far, this surely is a "leap" year. The Nasdaq finally made an all-time high (ATH), jumping above the last ATH from November 19, 2021. Yes, that took a long time (about 27.5 months). But after the 2000 high, it took the index more than 15 years to recover -- so just a couple years isn't so bad. Is this a significant breakout? As we have said, great breakouts to ATHs occur after multi-year bases, not after vicious rallies.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

In this edition, we explore the state of US auto market; margin of safety erased in US equity market rally; growing pains and growth in US equity market; and EOG Resources, Alnylam, and Pembina.

Bumps in the Soft Landing

Stock indices dipped in October 2023, with the S&P 500 falling a sharp 10% off summer highs. Looking at 13F filings of big institutional portfolios, we see that the big guns were busy last quarter taking advantage of that dip. Citadel Advisors went on a buying spree, adding to its $100 billion portfolio across a range of sectors. As did D.E. Shaw, adding to its $67 billion portfolio. Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, analyzes insider trading and institutional stock ownership. Form 13-Fs, which institutions must file to report their holdings, are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters and have come in for 4Q24. We review 13Fs of major activists to determine core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing is now less about generating a short-term return and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Based on data from Vickers, here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, as well as other high-profile money managers.