Our 2020 forecast for the average price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil is $38, and our preliminary forecast for 2020 is $44. Our estimates assume OPEC and OPEC+ members continue to coordinate on production cuts and on gradually improving global economic activity into 2021. Our price target also reflects the long-term downtrend for crude prices as Peak Oil approaches: recent average annual prices were $57 in 2019, $65 in 2018, $51 in 2017, $43 in 2016, $49 in 2015, $93 in 2014 and $98 in 2013. We anticipate that President-elect Biden's policy will favor clean energy initiatives rather than carbon-based energy solutions. Our range through 2021 is now $50 on the upside and $30 on the downside. Given volatility in oil prices, our investment recommendation on the Energy sector is now Under-Weight. The current weight for the sector in the S&P 500 is approximately 2.5%, down from the 7%-8% range in 2013-2014. Within the group, we favor companies with strong balance sheets and a history of growing dividends.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday morning amid surging coronavirus cases, as the U.S. pandemic death toll rose above 250,000. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose to 742,000 for the week ended November 14, up from 711,000 a week earlier and above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 700,000. In other data, the National Association of Realtors said that U.S. existing home sales rose 4.3% in October to a seasonally adjusted 6.85 million units, up from 6.57 million in September and above the consensus forecast of 6.45 million. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.5%. Crude oil traded near $41.50 per barrel, while gold fell $14 to $1860 per ounce.

Stocks rose last week, showing impressive breadth including a new all-time high for the small-cap Russell 2000. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 400 points, or 1.37%. The S&P 500 rose 48 points, or 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 120 points or 1%. For the full week, investors favored defensive stocks, while shying away from technology high-flyers. Last week, the Dow was up 4.1%, on top of the prior week's 6.9% gain. The S&P 500 was up 2.2%, propelling the index to a new all-time high. The Nasdaq was down for the week, falling half a percentage point. For the year-to-date, the DJIA is back in positive territory with a gain of 3.3%. The S&P is up 11.0%, and the Nasdaq is up 31.8%. Over the past 52 weeks, the Dow is up 5.3%, the S&P 500 is up 14.9%, and the Nasdaq is up 38.5%.

Stocks rose strongly on Monday morning after Pfizer and BioNTech reported that their coronavirus vaccine was more than 90% effective in a late-stage clinical trial. The companies also said that they had thus far found no serious safety concerns with the vaccine. Pfizer shares rose nearly 9%. The Dow rose 3.9%, the S&P 2.8%, and the Nasdaq 0.7%. Crude oil jumped more than 8% to $40 per barrel, while gold dropped $88 to $1864 per ounce.

Stocks snapped back during election week, as the vote count dragged into the weekend. The Republicans likely hold onto the Senate, which means no big tax hikes; and Vice President Biden claims the White House, which means the Affordable Care Act stays. Based on the strong stock market, investors cheered for gridlock. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 67 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 dropped a single point, and the Nasdaq Composite edged up four points. For the full week, the Dow was up 6.9%, reversing the prior week's 6.5% loss. The S&P 500 was up 7.3%, and the Nasdaq was up 9.4%. For the year-to-date, the DJIA is down less than 1%, the S&P is up 8.6%, and the Nasdaq is up 38.5%. Over the past 52 weeks, the Dow is up 2.3%, the S&P 500 is up 13.5%, and the Nasdaq is up 40.4%.

Stocks pared early losses and traded near breakeven on Friday morning, as Joe Biden moved closer to winning the presidency, with narrow leads in key swing states. October employment data was stronger than expected. The Labor Department said that the U.S. economy added 638,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in October, above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 580,000 though down from a revised 672,000 in September. The official unemployment rate also fell to 6.9% from 7.9% and was lower than the consensus forecast. The Dow and the S&P were flat, and the Nasdaq was down 0.2%. Crude oil fell more than 3% to $37.50 per barrel, while gold rose $6 to $1953 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks rose on Thursday morning, recovering some of their losses after Wednesday's sharp selloff. GDP data was strong. The Commerce Department said that the U.S. economy expanded at a 33.1% annualized rate in the third quarter, a reversal from the 2Q decline of 31.4%. The reading was also above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 32.0%. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 751,000 for the week ended October 24, down from 791,000 a week earlier and below the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 770,000. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P 1.0%, and the Nasdaq 1.5%. Crude oil fell more than 3% to $36 per barrel, while gold fell $8 to $1872 per ounce.

Stocks fell sharply on Monday morning amid continued election uncertainty and rising coronavirus cases in the U.S. and Europe. New home sales data was also weak. The Commerce Department said that U.S. new home sales fell 3.5% to a seasonally adjusted 959,000 units in September, below the Reuters consensus of 1.025 million. The Dow fell 2.0%, the S&P 1.6%, and the Nasdaq 1.1%. Crude oil traded near $38.50 per barrel, while gold rose $3 to $1908 per ounce.

Dividends are supposed to lend stability to a portfolio. However, U.S.-based equity income investors have experienced a high degree of volatility in recent years. In our view, investing in international income stocks is one way to increase portfolio diversification while reducing sensitivity to volatile U.S interest rates. Investing in overseas stocks carries its own set of risks, including the impact of currency exchange and geopolitical turmoil. But there are also a number of positives in this segment for U.S. investors. One is a more robust selection of high-quality names. Yields also tend to be higher in overseas markets in general. And finally, valuations can be more attractive.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks fell on Tuesday morning, giving back some of Monday's gains as investors awaited the first presidential debate. On the economic front, the Commerce Department said that the U.S. trade deficit in goods rose 3.5% to $82.9 billion in August, reflecting strong imports of consumer goods and slower growth in exports. The increased deficit could weigh on 3Q GDP. Meanwhile, the Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index rose to 101.8 in September, up from 86.3 in August and well above the Reuters consensus forecast of 89.5. The Dow fell 0.5%, the S&P 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.1%. Crude oil traded near $39 per barrel, while gold rose $10 to $1892 per ounce.

This edition features oil sands; independent refiners; Alexion's moat; and notes from Mattel, DocuSign, and new coverage Schroders.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional ownership trends. Form 13-Fs are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and are just now coming in from 2Q20. We like to review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners and ValueAct Holdings, among others. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of Activist investors, according to Vickers.