We see what we believe are some great opportunities right now in Healthcare -- and we like the sector overall. Argus Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, recently completed his quarterly sector review and raised Healthcare sector to Over-Weight from Market-Weight. The healthcare environment is undergoing rapid transitions, and we now see an unfolding period of significant promise and opportunity. Our newly-favored stance is based on resumption of deferred medical procedures and significant new quality-of-life drugs and treatments. The category is broad and has underperformed the S&P 500 over the past year. The Healthcare sector ETF (XLV) is up 15% over the past year compared to a gain of 31% for the S&P 500. We see opportunity here to pick up some steady companies, with big brands and solid financials. These companies are science-focused and enhance lives. They are innovators. In our list this week, we look across several subsectors within the Healthcare sector and pull out some leaders we like. These stocks also are included in our Focus List and Model Portfolios, as noted below.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Management's ability to "raise guidance" can often be a catalyst for market-beating returns in the quarters ahead. The fourth-quarter earnings season has crossed the 95% mark and is wrapping up, with blended earnings (actual results and the consensus for those still to report) showing a year-over-year gain of almost 10%, according to Refinitiv. That is considerably better than the 4%-7% advance expected at the start of the earnings period. Leading the outperformance were strong gains in Communication Services earnings, up 53%. On the flipside, Energy (like last quarter) is performing the worst, down 22%. Our analysts are always on the lookout for companies that boost their outlooks during earnings season. Here is an initial list of BUY-rated companies in Argus' Fundamental Universe of Coverage at which management raised guidance or increased its outlook during the 4Q23 EPS reporting season.

As stock prices continue to rise and the valuation band for stocks is stretched further, insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research continues to show that corporate executives, directors, and beneficial owners are increasingly defensive. Is it time to run for exits? Likely no. But stock prices won't go up forever, so a sense of caution does seem to be warranted. And that is what insiders are clearly telling us.

Monday Tee Up: Back to Inflation

Bumps in the Soft Landing

Stocks are trading lower on Tuesday morning on some weaker-than-expected economic data as well as growing concerns that AI-related stocks are overbought at this juncture. Specifically, the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index slipped 0.4% in January and was lower than the expected 0.3% drop. The index was down 3.0% over the past six months -- a narrower decline than the preceding six-month period, which fell by 4.1%. Still, with six of the 10 index components being positive over the past six-month period, the index no longer is signaling a recession ahead. Turning to stocks, shares of Nvidia (NVDA) are down today, with the company reporting earnings tomorrow after market close. Despite expectations for positive earnings results, the selloff indicates many investors may be concerned that the shares are due for a pullback following an impressive run this year (which saw shares rise over 50% to an all-time high set last week). Shares of other tech companies which also saw strong gains related to AI prospects are trading lower on overvaluation concerns, including Arm Holdings (ARM), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Super Micro Computer (SMCI).

Stock indices dipped in October 2023, with the S&P 500 falling a sharp 10% off summer highs. Looking at 13F filings of big institutional portfolios, we see that the big guns were busy last quarter taking advantage of that dip. Citadel Advisors went on a buying spree, adding to its $100 billion portfolio across a range of sectors. As did D.E. Shaw, adding to its $67 billion portfolio. Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, analyzes insider trading and institutional stock ownership. Form 13-Fs, which institutions must file to report their holdings, are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters and have come in for 4Q24. We review 13Fs of major activists to determine core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing is now less about generating a short-term return and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Based on data from Vickers, here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, as well as other high-profile money managers.

Stocks were higher on Thursday, with investors apparently moving beyond the panic that set in - for one day - earlier in the week after a hot CPI report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.91%, the Nasdaq 0.30% and the S&P 500 0.58% (and at a record closing high). Early in Thursday's session, worries kicked in after the U.S. Commerce Department reported that retail sales dropped 0.8% last month, the biggest decrease since last February. But that bad news also was quickly discounted as recent winter storms were cited as one-time events that likely negatively impacted the data.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.