Until there is no more economically produceable. Oil available is based on price oil/ maint/workover costs, etc. Oil reserves stated in official documents really mean nothing-they had oil for 10 years 15 years ago. The oil reservoir does not get plugged at the end of official reserves. Will WTI stay at its present level? Or will it creep back up to the $70-80 range? The reservoir life could be 50years-but the chargeable costs will have negated the distribution long before then. Suggest you look over the trust documents before you dump a bundle in.
I get several different numbers on how much crude is still there. One said no amount by said ten years, another eight years and so forth. So what is the best guess the life of the reserve?
IMO ~80 bucks by late may early june, then another bashing campaign and back down it goes.
i'm assuming oil will keep rising slowly.
...Pulleasseee, it was just a fat-finger mistake. If you insist on calling me a dummy, then be considerate about it---call me a fat-finger dummy. lol
Sorry for a personal question, not trying to be mean or anything, just curious.
When you get screwed like you just did . . .
Do you roll calls or do you wait for them to assign you a short position and then let your broker harass you with those "sir you need to cover today before noon or else" type phone calls?
BPT options aren't exactly liquid and spreads aren't exactly narrow either.
I finally was able to buy back all of my puts today to close my trade. I didn't want to wait till June expiration for the 15% that remained on that "trip".
Now if it continues to go up i'm wondering if i should join you and write some calls. if BPT hits 80 i might. depending on what IV looks like. I looked today and calls looked way too cheap to me though. i would want to write some 90 strike calls at $5 a pop or better, 4 months out or so, say September and assuming I write them at the end of May when/if BPT is at 80 or so.
but somehow looking at current IV values i very much doubt that would work. going naked for $2 or $3 in this scenario doesn't sound to me like a worthwhile trade.
was it easy to get a bid for your calls? took me a while to get in on the puts and even longer to get out. not to mention the usual front running and all the other BS that ALWAYS goes on there.
So I'd like to know if you have any experience to share w.r.t. rolling, writing, etc. Want to know how the arbs behave. Cause if i go in @80, with my luck it will definitely go to 100 first :) Well, maybe 90. But then what goes up must come down, so as long as I can roll I should do OK.
why to you hang here then? Did you pick up more shares when price was cheap?....lol
Already part of valuation-happened several months ago. Wishful thinking is not a good investment strategy. Do your homework which means some of the periodic filings. Don't expect this board to do your work for you. You'll see trader and hold and collect opinions expressed. Which one are you?
Workovers are part of well maint. and are included. They have been in enhanced recovery for some time with CO2 and nat gas injection. Don't know about rework like horizontal drilling-wasn't invented then so doubt if covered under trust.
what about the lower taxes by Alaska as an offset to adj chargeable cost increasing??in part?
who knows right now but workovers and enhanced production in original BPT wells---??---may get the benefits?--and of course the lower taxes by Alaska ---?? to help to offset the increased costs??
I agree with you. Trust production is strictly limited to original wells and formations.
Not sure if Trust benefits from work overs. BP is not obligated to enhance trust unit
holders. I don't think even secondary recovery is included. BP could create a new
trust to raise money if needed. Will have to re-read what the lawyers originally
drafted. Operating costs begin to escalate in a couple years and then accelerates
cutting into Trust distributions. BBB
I'm with you. Been awhile since have read trust documents. Thought BPT limited to recorded wells and did not include new wells. Did include workovers and enhanced production.
This doesn't indicate benefits will accrue to BPT until put into print with a new 10k. Right now BPT excluded by the contract document.
BP extensive new investment in new wells to extend Prudhoe Bay field long term life.
Note the sale by BP of all their other Alaskan drilling locations to gain further investment $ for further drilling to extend the life of the main Prudhoe Bay -field long term life.
i may be wrong, but i always assumed that BPT's ORRI structure precludes it from benefiting from new drilling. although i guess if drilling takes place within existing units then it should be covered.
please correct me if i'm wrong.
Note the sale by BP of all their other Alaskan drilling locations to gain further investment $ for further drilling to extend the life of the main Prudhoe Bay -field long term life
place your bets... are the Iranian ships being tracked going to A) back down like we would expect from 'reasonable' people, like the Russians did when JFK quarantined Cuba?... or B) will the irrational underlying MO of people clinging to life from over 1000 years ago going to push the envelope and invite being fired on and / or sunk?... It may be right at a 50/50 shot, but I'm picking B...
They've carried things so far, and they're pretty sure that America's amateur EOE at the helm, they're goin' for broke...