Homebuilder confidence was unchanged in April after four consecutive increases, according to the recent National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. The index value was 51. A reading over 50 indicates that more builders see conditions as good than poor. NAHB Chairman Carl Harris said that many "frustrated buyers" were "back on the fence waiting for interest rates to fall." The NAHB's Chief Economist, Robert Dietz, said: "April's flat reading suggests potential for demand growth is there, but buyers are hesitating until they can better gauge where interest rates are headed," On April 8, Fannie Mae released its Home Purchase Sentiment Index for March, which declined after three consecutive increases. The company's Chief Economist, Doug Duncan, said: "Consumers took a slightly more pessimistic view on the likely direction of mortgage rates, likely reflecting the fact that actual mortgage rates have moved upward since the start of the year." The 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.88% last week from 6.62% on January 4, according to Freddie Mac. On Tuesday, the Commerce Department reported March Housing Starts of 1.32 million at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, down 4.3% from a year earlier. This morning, we expect the National Association of Realtors to report March Existing Home Sales of 3.9 million (SAAR), down from 4.35 million in March 2023. On April 23, we expect the Commerce Department to report March New Home Sales of 672,000 (SAAR), up 5.0% year-over-year. Based on the April 16 GDPNow estimate from the Atlanta Fed, first-quarter GDP is expected to rise 2.9%, with positive contribution from residential fixed investment. The S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index jumped 6.1% in December. We expect it to rise about 4% for February. The Zillow Home Value Index was up 3.6% in February. The 10-year Treasury yield is a benchmark for mortgage rates. It disconcertingly rose to 4.60% yesterday from 3.95% on January 2.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The first quarter of 2024 was rewarding for equity investors, as the S&P 500 increased 10.2%. Much of the market participated, as the S&P 500 Growth Index advanced 12.6% and the S&P 500 Value Index rose 7.4%. Leading sectors included Communication Services (+15.6%), Energy (+12.7%), Technology (+12.5%), Financials (+12%), and Industrials (+10.6%). The average stock in the Argus Universe of Coverage rose 8.0% during the year, and the median stock advanced 7.2%. The average BUY-rated stock increased 9.9%, while the average HOLD-rated stock gained 3%. Will the market's breadth hold up for the balance of 2024 or will investors revert to the so-called Magnificent 7? Will small-caps pick up their pace (the Russell 2000 was up "only" 4.8% in 1Q) or is the current bull-market rally due for a break, with some profit-taking coming into play? Given declining interest rates, we expect growth stocks to continue to lead stocks higher, while the risk of recession puts a premium on clean balance sheets, which are also more prevalent among large-caps. Investors seeking value are encouraged to focus on dividends and look for yields in the 3%-4% range. Here are the Top 10 Performers from the Argus Universe last quarter (including representatives of six of the 11 major sectors) as well as the Bottom-Five Performers.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID) have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be less disrupted by the fallout from global events. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. As well, there are long stretches in the record books when SMID stocks have outperformed large-caps. That said, SMID stocks can be risky. The standard deviation for monthly returns was 5.7% for SMID stocks over a 2003-2021 test period, versus 4.3% for large-caps. Still, despite the risks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record.