PG&E Corporation (NYSE:PCG) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript
PG&E Corporation (NYSE:PCG) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript February 22, 2024
PG&E Corporation isn’t one of the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds at the end of the third quarter (see the details here).
Operator: Thank you for standing by. And welcome to the PG&E Corporation Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Release Call. I would now like to welcome Jonathan Arnold, Vice President of Investor Relations to begin the call. Jonathan, over to you.
Jonathan Arnold: Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for PG&E’s Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. With us today are Patti Poppe, Chief Executive Officer; and Carolyn Burke, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We also have other members of the leadership team here with us in our Oakland headquarters. First, I should remind you that today’s discussion will include forward-looking statements about our outlook for future financial results. These statements are based on information currently available to management. Some of the important factors, which could affect our actual financial results are described on the second page of today’s earnings presentation. The presentation also includes a reconciliation between non-GAAP and GAAP financial measures.
The slides along with other relevant information can be found online at investor.pgecorp.com. We would also encourage you to review our Annual Report on Form 10-Q for the year ended December 31, 2023. With that, it’s my pleasure to hand the call over to our CEO, Patti Poppe.
Patricia Poppe: Thank you, Jonathan. Good morning, everyone. This morning we reported full year core earnings of $1.23 delivering at the high end of our annual guidance range. This result represents growth of 12% over our 2022 results of $1.10. In the fourth quarter we recognized the full year benefit of our 2023 general rate case as expected. I’m also pleased to announce that we exceeded our 2% annual nonfuel O&M savings target for the second consecutive year with savings coming in at 5.5% and pushing our EPS to the high end of the range. Because these savings were predominantly generated by reducing waste and improving service, they benefit customers today and benefit investors for years to come. Looking to 2024, we are reaffirming our at least 10% growth target which is now based on our actual 2023 results of $1.23.
This results in an increase to our 2024 core earnings guidance range with a new higher midpoint of $1.35 versus our previous guidance of $1.33. We also reaffirm our commitment to at least 9% core EPS growth for both 2025 and 2026, re-based off our actual 2023 results in our new 2024 range. In addition, I'm pleased to share that we're extending our core EPS growth guidance of at least 9% for an additional two years through 2028. Our needed customer investment leads to strong rate-based growth, which continues to be the primary driver of our future earnings growth. We're providing you with updated five-year forecasts for both rate-based and CapEx in today's slides. These numbers now extend to 2028 and show a consistent compound annual growth rate of 9.5% using the new base year of 2023.
Finally, we reaffirm our commitment to no new equity in 2024 and remain committed to pursuing the most efficient forms of financing available for 2025 and beyond, which Carolyn will discuss in her remarks. On slide four, we've added 2023 actuals illustrating our high end of guidance results and the rebasing of forward year growth rates now through 2028. This is our simple, affordable model in action. The list in 2023 reflects our 5.5% non-fuel O&M reduction well above our 2% plan. Slide five is a reminder of the key elements of our simple, affordable model, which allows us to continue growing customer capital investment at 9% or more while containing customer bill increases at or below assumed inflation in the 2% to 4% range. Key enablers in the model are ongoing annual non-fuel O&M reductions of 2%, efficient financing, and electric low growth in the 1% to 3% range.
The proof is in the numbers. The simple, affordable model works. You first saw slide six during our November business update call. This version has been updated for a few additional known items, such as the 2024 cost of capital trigger. Our new ROE of 10.7% took effect on January 1st this year, with collections beginning this month in gas rates and next month for electric. Delivering on this projected 2% to 4% bill growth trajectory is an essential element of the PG&E plan, and one which will be important for building trust with our customers over the long run. For our average gas and electric residential customer, average monthly bill increases are limited to the 2% to 4% range from 2023 through 2026. I wanted to be clear that this includes the step up in 2024 as we implement the GRC and other deferred cost recoveries.
Our plan shows average bills stepping down, beginning later this year and further in both 2025 and 2026, keeping the average annual increase in the lower half of the 2% to 4% range as catch-up recoveries roll off. Two of the larger items are around $1 billion of 2022 WMCE interim rate relief, which comes off bills in mid-2024, and the 24-month collection of our first-year GRC revenues, which come off at the start of 2026. Let me say that again. Based on what we know today, our bills will rise at the lower half of the range, around 2.5% per year on average for the duration of this rate case from 2023 through 2026. Let's shift gears to the significant progress the team has made on risk mitigation. Slide seven updates our 2023 admission data for the full year.
Total CPUC reportable admissions came in at 65% for 2023, down 68% from the 2017 baseline, and 29% down from 2022. On the right side of the slide, we're showing our weather normalized ignition rate, which is a metric from our wildfire mitigation plan. This year's number of 0.93 was a reduction of 71% from 2017, and our lowest annual number since we began calculating this metric. The metric demonstrates that we continue to drive down wildfire risk in 2023, even after adjusting for fewer circuit mile days under our three or higher conditions when the risks of catastrophic wildfire are highest. While we're extremely pleased with these results, our team certainly isn't stopping here. We see further opportunities to drive overall wildfire risk reduction beyond the 94% achieved in 2023, as we continue with additional system hardening and deployment of new technologies.
In addition to the physical risk reduction, financial risks are also lower, including key protections under AB 1054, which were reaffirmed with the issuance of our annual safety certificate last month. Looking forward, here on Slide eight, we want to take a moment to highlight how we see PG&E offering investors a truly differentiated, high-quality utility growth story. This starts with premium rate-based growth and industry leading 9.5%. What sets us apart is our commitment to make this investment affordable for our customers. The key enabler is our ability to drive consistent non-fuel O&M savings as we deploy our lane operating system in a utility, which previously saw cost compound at an annual 10% rate over the prior five years. As a reminder, several years of doing whatever was necessary to respond to back-to-back crisis pushed our capital-to-expense ratio far below the industry average.
This is where we have a wealth of opportunity and a long runway to drive efficiencies with sustainable savings benefiting both our customers and our investors. We expect future load growth related to California's leadership and electrification to be a further differentiator and one which will help keep customer build growth within our 2% to 4% forecast. In addition to continued adoption of electric vehicles throughout our service territory, we have seen a three-fold increase in data center applications in 2023 versus the prior four years. We plan to speak more about these load growth trends over the course of this year, including at an investor meeting which we are planning for June 12th in New York, so please mark your calendars for that. The fundamental differentiators of rate-based growth, O&M savings, and load growth, we would add our constructive state regulatory and policy environment in California.
Key elements of the California regulatory model include four years of revenue certainty under the GRC, returns which are set separately from the GRC including a formulaic adjustment mechanism, and timely recovery for pass-through of important cost categories including fuel and pension. With our GRC resolved, we now have revenue certainty extended through 2026, giving us the best level of regulatory visibility we've had since I joined PG&E and something which any regulated utility would love. This brings me to our performance playbook, including our lean operating system, which is becoming a critical differentiator for PG&E as we continue building a sustainable culture based on continuous improvement and what we refer to as breakthrough thinking.
And so, on slide nine, to my story of the month, or in this case, the story of the year. Let me first take you back to the beginning of 2023. We had a goal to underground 350 miles of electric lines at a unit cost of $3.3 million per mile. We started 2023 with only about five miles of civil construction fully complete. At that point, we had hundreds of miles still to design, thousands of individual easements to negotiate, 345 miles of trenches to dig, and 350 miles of cable to pull. And then, the winter storms hit. 15 atmospheric rivers to be exact, which brought civil work to a near standstill through April. So, how did we deliver on 2023 undergrounding plan? As scoped, on time, and at better than targeted unit cost performance? Well, during a visit with our board of directors in December, I watched proudly as the undergrounding team described how they use the PG&E performance playbook every day and at every level.
What they shared wasn't one silver bullet, not just a breakthrough idea or a value stream map or a waste elimination. Rather, it was this team's commitment to living the culture, using the tools, and building the capabilities that enabled our results and which will cause future success. In 2023 alone, the undergrounding team eliminated $68 million in waste for the benefit of our customers. They did this by updating our standards, deploying optimal construction methods, and better managing spoils. With additional improvements, average unit cost came in below our target of $3.3 million to just under $3 million per mile. And the average construction cycle time improved from five and a half months back in February 2023 to three and a half months today.
This was a total game changer in meeting and exceeding our 350 mile goals. Thanks to our 2023 undergrounding efforts, we can avoid proactively turning off power to about 15,000 households during dangerous high wind events. These customers who live in our highest risk areas can now sleep at night knowing they do not have to trade safety for reliability or worry that a tree might land on the power line in their backyard. This is climate resilient infrastructure for all weather conditions and for generations to come. The team reminded us that before lean we would have managed the underground efforts through spreadsheets and phone calls. That was the old PG&E way. Undergrounding team is showing us the new PG&E. Imagine the impact our performance playbook can have enterprise-wide.
It's great that we achieved our 2023 goals. What's even better is that we've created a playbook enabling consistent premium performance year-end and year-out. As I like to say, performance is power. This means delivering safe, affordable and reliable service to our hometowns along with consistent predictable financial results. With that, let me turn it over to Carolyn.
Carolyn Burke: Thank you Patti and good morning everyone. Today I'm excited to cover three topics with you. First, a recap of our 2023 results. Second, our differentiated growth opportunities. And third, how are we making this growth affordable for our customers by executing on our simple, affordable model? Starting here on slide 10, I'm pleased to report that we met or exceeded all of our 2023 goals, both operational and financial. And we're on track for each of our longer-term commitments. Our 2023 report card is another proof point that our performance playbook is working. The culture and capabilities we are building here at PG&E are enabling our delivery of consistent, predictable results. It's a virtue to recycle, setting industry-leading targets, using our lean operating system to manage the day-to-day work, and then delivering on our promises, building trust with our customers and our investors.
This is how we've made our system safer, faster. It's how we deliver it on our 2022 and 2023 EPS guidance. And it's how we can further strengthen our balance sheet while keeping bills affordable for our customers. I'm especially proud that we reduce non-fuel operating and maintenance costs by 5.5% in 2023. That's in addition to fully observing inflation and on top of the 3% we achieved in 2022. Looking forward, we see no shortage of opportunities to continue delivering better outcomes for customers at a lower cost all across the business. I'd note that not all of the 2023 reduction hit the bottom line, with the majority directly benefiting customers, including our self-insurance solution and substantial efficiencies in our vegetation management work.
Our mid-teens by 2024 FFO to debt target is on track, and there is no change to our plan to reduce parent company debt by at least $2 billion by the end of 2026. We remain firmly committed to achieving solid investment grade ratings. In December, we were pleased to see S&P revised their rating outlook from stable to positive, indicating the potential for an upgrade in the next 12 months. And earlier this week, I'm delighted to say that Moody's upgraded our rating by one notch, also leaving us some positive outlook. This puts us one notch away from investment grade, one step closer to our goal. We value the support we receive from our regulators, helping us strengthen our balance sheet while we execute our plan to affordably serve customers and investors.
For example, on February 1st, the Commission issued a proposed decision authorizing interim rate relief in the amount of $516 million, while our wildfire and gas safety cost application is pending. The interim relief may be voted on as early as March 7th, and would provide for collections to start as soon as practical over a 12-month period. Moving to slide 11, as you can see here, and as expected, the largest discrete driver of fourth quarter and full-year results was the approval of our 2023 general rate case, which added $0.15. We also saw a benefit of $0.03, partly attributed to our non-fuel O&M savings, including better resource management and improved planning and execution. Please recall that our O&M savings are part of our simple, affordable model, which allows us to complete more work for the benefit of our customers while delivering affordability.
That's exactly what you see here with $0.05 of redeployment. Our savings allowed us to stand up 10 additional model yards, designed to improve frontline productivity with more efficient processes, minimizing rework, and eliminating waste as we deliver for our customers. We also provided additional training resources for our co-workers, and we accelerated inspections, calling forward work to protect 2024, and ensuring we're doing the highest priority work for our customers. We use every extra resource to better serve our customers and achieve our commitments to you, our investors. We weather the ups and downs to deliver consistent predictable results. As Patti highlighted, we ended 2023 at the top of our EPS guidance range, although our core philosophy remains to redeploy excess earnings back into the system, benefiting customers while de-risking and extending premium growth on behalf of investors.
On slide 12, we are extending our CapEx and rate-based growth projections another year to include 2028, showing a five-year annual rate-based growth of 9.5%. Our new five-year capital plan represents an increase of over $10 billion, or approximately 20% over the 2023 to 2027 plan. This also is over 45% higher than the previous five-year period from 2019 to 2023. The amounts shown on this slide reflect our base capital plan, including how much our rate-based is already approved by regulators. The vast majority, or 93%, of our rate-based for this year is already authorized, as is 90% of our 2026 forecast. In addition to our plan, there are substantial needs to do more. Specifically, we have at least an incremental $5 billion of CapEx opportunities, which we will seek to fold into our plan while still meeting our affordability commitments.
These include capacity investments and transmission upgrades to support continued system-wide growth. As we work to drive affordability under our simple affordable model and ongoing deployment of lean, we will look for opportunities to add this important work. As you know, this capital investment fuels both earnings growth and improves our operating cash flow, as illustrated on slide 13, which we have updated and extended since we first showed it at last year's investor day. As shown, we're projecting substantial improvement in our operating cash flow in 2024, partly as a result of the final GRC decision. Operating cash flow grows from $5 billion in 2023 to $11 billion by 2028, providing resources to grow our capital investment for customers from $9.8 billion in 2023 to $14 billion in 2028, and substantially improving our cash flow before dividends.
As Patti mentioned, our guidance includes no new equity in 2024. As we look forward, we have many good efficient financing choices, including close to $2.5 billion of annual retained earnings today and rising from there at our present low level of dividend payout. Half of our funding provided from normal utility debt, substantial levels of prior cost recovery, favorable tax conditions, poor working capital improvements, the sale of a minority interest in our non-nuclear generation assets, and potentially reintroducing an at-the-market or ATM equity program in 2025. While we are not giving the final mix of our 2025 financing plan today, rest assured that our plan only includes choices which are accretive to our guidance. In light of this, we are extending our core EPS growth rate of at least 9% through 2027 and 2028.
Moving to slide 14, this is our simple affordable model and a breakdown of the 5.5% O&M savings last year. Patti shared details about our undergrounding achievements in 2023, and there are many more similar stories throughout the business. I’ll share just one more with you today. At our investor day, you heard about improvements we were making to the new customer connections process by leveraging our performance playbook. Now, here's how we ended the year. The team was able to save $24 million while decreasing average end-to-end lead time by 13%. That's a 50-day reduction. We also reduced engineering design time by 33%, a 37-day reduction. As a result, customer on-time delivery improved by 25 percentage points. I share this example to make an important point.
This is not a cost-cutting program at PG&E. Rather, this is about good business decisions, which are sustainable for the long-term, and it's about using the performance playbook, including the Lean operating system, to improve how we do our work every day. Our actions are improving the customer experience and making capital and safety investments affordable. I'll end here on slide 15 with regulatory catalysts on the horizon in 2024. As you can see, they are still plentiful and include resolution of our proposed PacGen sale, a proposed decision in Phase 2 of our GRC, implementing Senate Bill 410 and unlocking our potential to meet the new customer demand here in California, filing of our 10-year undergrounding plan, and bringing our $5 billion of incremental capital opportunities into the plan while still meeting our affordability goals.
Finally, I'll comment on our cost of capital adjustment advice letter, which was approved by Commission staff in December, raising our allowed ROE from 10% to 10.7% and truing up our cost of debt. While this adjustment is already approved and in customer rates starting this month, in January, a joint intervener group filed a late request for review of staff's approval. While we recognize this creates some uncertainty for investors, we were pleased that the Commission staff upheld operation of the adjustment mechanism in December as intended. Intervenors offered no new fundamental arguments in their request for review, and we look forward to this issue being resolved expeditiously. In the meantime, as we have said consistently, our EPS growth guidance is not dependent on the outcome, and we value the opportunity to redeploy the revenue uplift for the benefit of customers while delivering consistent, predictable results for investors.
There's a lot to look forward to in 2024 and beyond. Including our 10% core EPS growth guidance and our at least 9% growth rate now extended through 2028. With that, I'll hand it back to Patti.
Patricia Poppe: Thank you, Carolyn. Before we take your questions, let me introduce our new report card here on slide 16, against which you'll be able to track our record of differentiated performance. We're showing our results for 2022 and 2023, along with our goals for 2024 and beyond. We believe, we have a differentiated plan and the right team in place to deliver on these objectives. As I said earlier, performance is power, and we have significant operational momentum with a healthy set of catalysts in front of us. The PG&E turnaround is on track. We trust you feel the momentum as we do. We look forward to seeing you at upcoming investor conferences, as well as our investor meeting scheduled for June 12th in New York. With that, Operator, please open the lines for questions.
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