ReNew Energy Global Plc (NASDAQ:RNW) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
ReNew Energy Global Plc (NASDAQ:RNW) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript February 20, 2024
ReNew Energy Global Plc beats earnings expectations. Reported EPS is $-0.1, expectations were $-0.14. ReNew Energy Global Plc isn’t one of the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds at the end of the third quarter (see the details here).
Operator: Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the ReNew Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2024 Earnings Report. All participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to Nathan Judge, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Nathan Judge: Thank you, Betsy, and good morning everyone and thank you for joining us. This morning, the company issued a press release announcing results for its fiscal 2024 third quarter ended December 31, 2023. A copy of the press release and the presentation are available on the Investor Relations section on ReNew's website at www.renew.com. With me this morning are Sumant Sinha, Founder, Chairman, and CEO; Kailash Vaswani, our CFO, and Vaishali Nigam Sinha, Co-Founder and Chairperson of Sustainability. After the prepared remarks, we will open the call for questions. Please note, our Safe Harbor statements are contained within our press release, presentation materials and materials available on our website. These statements are important and integral to all our remarks.
There are risks and uncertainties that could cause our results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. So we encourage you to review the press release we furnished in our Form 6-K and the presentation on our website for a more complete description. Also contained in our presentation materials and annual report are certain non-IFRS measures that we reconcile to the most comparable IFRS measures, and these reconciliations are also available on our website in the press release, presentation materials and our annual report. It is now my pleasure to hand it over to Sumant.
Sumant Sinha: Yes, hi. Thank you, Nathan. Good morning and good evening to everybody on this call. I'm glad to have you on our third quarter fiscal year ended 2024 earnings call. The calendar year 2023 marked a significant milestone for the Indian renewable energy sector as well as for us. India, now the world's most populous nation, has experienced a surge in power demand, necessitating the need for more power. In April of 2023, the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy ramped up the auction calendar significantly in a bid to achieve the country's 500 gigawatt target for renewable energy installations. The government's commitment has now transpired into action and a record number of auctions have been conducted so far during the year.
So far in fiscal 2024, we have seen more than 40 gigawatts of auctions being conducted, which is a significant increase over last year when about 12 gigawatts of capacity was auctioned. Not only this, we are also tracking another 70 gigawatts of central and state tenders expected to be auctioned over the next few months. As India intensifies its Made in India initiatives to become a global manufacturing hub more broadly, the imperative for securing reliable power becomes even more pronounced. This expansion of the addressable renewable energy market has provided developers such as us the most favorable environment in the renewable energy sector that we have seen yet. As the number of auctions has increased significantly, competition has tailed off a little bit, leading to the discovery of higher tariffs.
The subscription rate for new auctions has declined significantly this fiscal year and were the lowest on record this past quarter, often less than 100% of the capacity being auctioned for complex projects, resulting in auctions clearing pretty much at the initial bid offer. Year-to-date, we have seen an increase in tariffs and in particular in wind auctions, which increased 14% year-on-year. Our differentiated ability to do wind makes us stand out in a market where there are far fewer developers with this ability. We note that even with the increase in tariffs, renewable energy continues to be the lowest cost source for new electricity supply in the country, considerably cheaper than the primary competitive alternate, which is coal power. Beyond the rise in tariffs, we saw several other factors that are supporting better returns, such as a record fall in the cost of solar modules, stable FX, adequate domestic debt financing and a significant reduction in receivable days.
The year, which started with a litany of challenges, has become one of the most favorable markets for ReNew in our history. As we approach the onset of fiscal year 2025, we eagerly anticipate leveraging the new opportunities that have risen during the year, especially in complex firm power such as the round-the-clock power and peak power projects that are currently under construction. This demand for complex projects is clearly evident in the rising percentage of such projects and such auctions. This fiscal year, complex projects represented about 38% of total capacity being auctioned, significantly more than the 8% of the total amount last year. This is set to increase further to 44% of the tenders that we expect to be auctioned over the next several months.
We continue to see higher returns in complex auctions and a greater share of our wins are in this subset. ReNew has clear competitive advantages in complex auctions and as a result our market share in these auctions is better than any of our peers. Firstly, modeling these projects is not easy. Further, executing complex projects requires expertise in developing wind, integrating multiple sources of power through the use of digital tools, as well as robust project management, something that most players in the sector lack. Our in-house wind EPC capability, our in-house digital labs and our ability to access the cheapest source of capital do ensure superior returns on our projects. The year is set to be a milestone year for us. As on the execution front, the year will see a significant increase in our operating portfolio as most of the under construction pipeline will become operational, providing top line and bottom line growth.
Now, turning to highlights for the quarter on Page 4, we are increasing the bottom end of our adjusted EBITDA guidance range to INR 63 billion to 66 billion. Amidst a record-breaking year for megawatt installations, we expect that about 1.75 gigawatts to 1.95 gigawatts will be generating revenue by the end of fiscal year 2024. Beyond the currently commissioned 825 megawatts, we have erected 475 megawatts of wind turbines and another 620 megawatts of solar module installations. Our strategy of asset recycling continues to provide us with cost effective capital for expansion. Last month we signed a deal for the sale of a 300 megawatt solar asset commissioned two years ago and we anticipate receiving proceeds of approximately U.S. $82 million by year end.
The asset was valued at U.S. $dollars 199 million. This transaction will further bolster the substantial sum raised through asset recycling thus far and at the same time enhance the returns on capital deployed on projects. We expect that we will realize a gain of about U.S. $30 million to U.S. $34 million as a gain in our Q4 '24 EBITDA. Do note that our FY '24 adjusted EBITDA guidance of INR 63 billion to INR 66 billion does not include this gain. Our growth trajectory remains robust as we won an additional 3.6 gigawatts of RE projects during the quarter, in a period when tariffs are rising, costs are falling and competition is near record lows, which underscores our ability to secure growth at attractive returns. We point this out because last year, when all these factors were unfavorable and returns for new projects were much lower, our market share was a mere 3%, well below our normal market share of 10% or thereabouts.
Comparing it to this year in an environment where returns are much higher, we have won about 15% of all auctions. We believe, and that is on top of a bigger base, we believe that this illustrates our commitment to capital discipline rather than just market share. We are pleased also to report that our DSOs, our days outstanding, have fallen below 100 days and stood at 86 days at the end of the quarter, marking a significant improvement of 92 days within the span of a year and an even greater improvement from the peak of 272 days only a couple of years ago. Prioritization of timely collection of payables remains paramount for us as it fortifies our competitive stance in the market and has released nearly $200 million of cash for growth. We believe that DSOs will continue to improve over time.
Furthermore, there has been a notable enhancement in wind PLF this year. For the quarter, the 17% wind PLF was a meaningful improvement over the 14.7% PLF in the prior comparable quarter and year-to-date the wind PLF was at 29.2% better than the wind PLF of 27.3% last year. While the uptrend in wind PLF is encouraging and there is increasing evidence that wind speeds are recovering towards long-term normal levels, in the long-term, our guidance does not take this into consideration in an effort to remain consolidated. I am proud to say that we were profitable for the trailing 12-month period with a profit of U.S. $44 million. We recognize that many investors consider profitability as a key investment decision metric and these results should increase RNW's attractiveness to a broader universe of investors.
While our cash flow from operations has always been positive and growing, we believe that we are now at the scale needed to be profitable consistently on an annual basis and be able to showcase the full value of our platform. We reported cash from operations of U.S. $616 million for the nine-month period ended December 31, 2023 compared to U.S. $595 million for the prior period. Our profit after tax was U.S. $43 million for the nine-month period this year compared to a loss in the prior comparable period, an improvement of almost actually U.S. $100 million. Turning to Page 5, electricity demand, growth and the macroeconomic environment, continues to favor RE development in India. Firstly, the auction markets continue to propel larger number of auctions and better tariffs.
Over 40 gigawatts of auctions have already been completed year-to-date and various state and central agencies are working towards another 70 gigawatts, likely to be completed over the next few months. Not only this, the share of complex projects went from 8% last year to about 38% this year, signaling a persistent shift towards complex projects. Further, the tariffs continued to trend upwards as there was less competition. Amongst the tenders that we are tracking we expect the share of complex projects to go up even further owing to the need for firm power in the country. Secondly, cost to construct RE continues to improve as solar module prices that make up 40% to 50% of the total cost to construct a solar farm have fallen by around 55% from the prior quarter to hit historical lows of about U.S. $0.11 per watt peak.
So let me say that again, they've fallen to hit U.S. $0.11 per watt peak. In addition, supply related challenges that constrained us last year were resolved as our own manufacturing facility came online during the year. We would note that the cost of sales has broadly mirrored the declines seen in module prices, making our manufacturing costs competitive with imports after considering the BCD or import duties. Turning to Page 6, our patient and selective approach in auctions has ensured that we are able to deliver superior returns on our projects. With over 40 gigawatts of projects auctioned in the current year, there have been several auctions that were undersubscribed. Lower competition in auctions enables us to lock-in superior tariffs, and we saw subscription levels lower than 100% in auctions for complex projects.
Our in-house EPC and an integrated supply chain that ensures delivering large projects on time enable us to bid comparatively, securing higher returns. Our digital and AI platform, bundled with our experience in developing complex solutions, provides us with a significant advantage over others. While we don't pursue market share, our market share has gone up by almost five times compared to the prior fiscal year, from having only a 3% market share last year when returns were much lower to about 15% market share this fiscal year with projects that are projected to have significantly higher returns. We will continue to be disciplined in our approach to growth and pursue the highest return opportunities in the market. Turning to Page 7, our core strength lies in our ability to execute projects over time and on time, within budget and deliver initially expected returns.
The on-ground progress remains strong as we have erected about 1.9 gigawatts of assets on the ground. Off this total, 825 megawatts of projects have already received COD approvals and in addition we have erected 474 wind turbines and installed 620 megawatts of solar modules. During this period we have also installed 150 megawatt hours battery storage facility for our Peak Power Project. In addition, we also commissioned 276 kilometers of transmission during the quarter. We are beginning to see real constraints emerging in getting access to interconnection hubs and this new business for us is beginning to provide considerable competitive advantages in bidding for new projects. With that, I would like to turn it over to Kailash to go over the latest financials.
Kailash Vaswani: Thank you, Sumant. Turning to Page 9, interest from domestic lenders for our project continues to be strong. Recently we were able to refinance a $325 million bond in the domestic markets with an interest rate that was around 200 basis points lower than the landed interest rate on that bond. Through the refinancing, we were once again able to demonstrate how we have been able to provide long-term finance to our projects with interest rates at sub 9%. In India, the yield spreads were Indian RE debt have compressed significantly as the sector has matured. While we stay focused on domestic debt markets given their low cost versus U.S. dollar green bond market, we have seen yields on our own U.S. dollar bond improve by about 200 basis points in little over the last four months.
It is also worth noting that the average spread on our bonds are about the same level as it was at the beginning of the Fed tightening cycle back in 2022. Turning to Page 10, our asset recycling program continues to see strong interest from international investors as well as domestic players. Last month, we signed an agreement for the sale of a 300 megawatt solar asset and expect to about $82 million of net proceeds by the year end, which is the fiscal year end. The proceeds from this asset sale are expected to be reinvested in projects that in the current strong bidding market where project cost to run rate EBITDA are in the range of 6.5 to 7.5 times EBITDA should have even higher returns than the one just sold. Subject to the rate at which we can raise growth capital from asset recycling, we should be able to grow 1 to 1.5 gigawatt net of asset recycling without having to issue any new shares.
Asset recycling effectively provides us with long-term growth capital at the cheapest possible cost of equity and thereby enabling us to grow while enhancing returns on capital. Turning to Page 11, we reported profit after tax for the nine-month period ended 31, December 2023 of U.S. $43 million as compared to a loss of approximately U.S. $60 million in the prior year. This was driven primarily by higher revenues and savings and finance cost. During the quarter, we saw significant improvement in wind PLF as compared to the prior comparable quarter. The wind PLF during the quarter was 17% compared to 14.7% in the same quarter last year, bolstering our confidence about the recovery in the long-term wind PLF towards normalized levels. Though our guidance expects the wind speed will be in the same as last year, our operating capacity increased by 940 megawatt over the last comparable quarter in the prior year, an increase of about 12%.
We reported an adjusted EBITDA of U.S. $150 million for quarter 3 FY '24, an increase of about 8%. The higher EBITDA is primarily attributable to additional revenue from projects commissioned during the period. This was partially offset by higher operating costs in line with the increase in capacity.
DISCOMs: Turning to Page 13, our balance sheet continues to expand and improve. Our cash balance stood at over $1.1 billion excluding the $325 million which was repaid in January of this year and our project level net debt was about U.S. $5.4 billion. During January of this year we refinanced our $325 million bond maturing in April '24, saving 200 basis points and extending the maturity to 15 years. Based on the current level of interest rates, we will continue to evaluate opportunities wherein we are able to refinance debt at lower interest rate than the coupon on that debt. This year, in addition to the $8 billion MoU that we signed with PFC and REC, we have signed an additional MoU of ADB for about $5.3 billion of debt financing, bringing the total amount of access of capital to over $13 billion.
These MoUs enable us in creating multiple avenues through which we can access debt at competitive rates and reduce the interest rate burden on our profit and loss account. With that, I would like to turn it over to Vaishali to talk about our ESG initiatives.
Vaishali Nigam Sinha:
Refinitiv: We were also recognized as one of the top performing companies by Sustainalytics, both as regional and industry leaders. We continue to maintain our CDP climate change rating to B which is the management band, which is higher than the Asia regional average of C and same as the renewable power generation sector average of B. In S&P CSA our score has increased to 53 from 41. We received multiple awards including the prestigious Terra Carta Seal for actively leading the charge to create a climate and nature positive future. We also received the World Economic Forum Lighthouse for the second time for our leadership in fourth industrial revolution technologies and highest category of recognition which is resilient by CII Climate Action Program which is CAP 2.0. Social responsibility continues to remain integral to our business.
Since 2014 we have influenced lives of over a million people across 500 villages across India, spanning over ten states. On the right hand side of the deck are some of the key programs which also include employee participation. Under Lighting Lives program the electrification of 60 schools is under progress in partnership with HSBC. The climate curriculum was rolled out to 9000 students. Project Surya, which is implemented in partnership with UNEP, nearly 210 women have completed their training as renewable energy technicians who earlier used to work in the very hard solar salt farming area in Gujarat. The 9th Edition of Gift Warmth Campaign 2023 has benefited around 200,000 people. Back to you. Thank you.
Sumant Sinha: Yes, thank you, Vaishali. Turning to our annual guidance, we are raising the bottom end of our FY '24 guidance range by 2% and now expect FY '24 adjusted EBITDA of INR 63 billion to INR 66 billion. As we said earlier, this excludes gains on sale of assets. On construction, we expect that about 1.75 gigawatts to 1.95 gigawatts will be generating revenue by the end of the year. As some of our projects have received COD extensions, this presents an opportunity to sell power on the exchange at prices often substantially higher than the PPA tariff. With regards to our FY '25 guidance, we anticipate sharing our outlook with investors during our fourth quarter FY '24 earnings call. We would remind investors that we sold 400 megawatts of assets this year that would have otherwise contributed around INR 2 billion in FY '25, although the EBITDA contribution from the asset sale proceeds will be even greater in future years as the capital is redeployed.
Lastly, we also anticipate being conservative on our weather assumptions in our FY '25 guidance. Whilst the weather trends have been better this year versus the prior several years, we are also focused on delivering on our promises to investors. With that, we will be happy to answer any questions. Thank you.
Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Nikhil Nigania with Bernstein. Please go ahead.
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