|Bid||5.14 x 200000|
|Ask||5.15 x 110000|
|Day's Range||5.14 - 5.21|
|52 Week Range||4.66 - 8.26|
|Beta (3Y Monthly)||1.89|
|PE Ratio (TTM)||8.08|
|Earnings Date||Feb 13, 2020|
|Forward Dividend & Yield||0.20 (3.85%)|
|1y Target Est||11.78|
(Bloomberg) -- Terms of Trade is a daily newsletter that untangles a world embroiled in trade wars. Sign up here. China’s exports unexpectedly fell in November as global demand waned and a deal with the U.S. continued to elude negotiators, while imports rebounded.Exports dropped 1.1% in dollar terms in November from a year earlier, while imports rose 0.3%, the customs administration said Sunday. That left a trade surplus of $38.73 billion for the month. Economists had forecast that exports would rise 0.8% while imports would drop by 1.4%.Key InsightsThe numbers are a bit surprising as exports unexpectedly fell while imports returned to growth, said Zhou Hao, senior economist at Commerzbank AG in Singapore. Overall these are still soft numbers -- there might be some further import improvement in December due to a favorable comparison with low numbers last year, but in general there is hardly a meaningful improvement in sight.Imports from the U.S. rose for the first time since August last year, while exports continued their slide for a 12th month, dropping 23%. However, the value of imports in 2018 was depressed by the trade war so the increase this year is off a low base.Chinese and U.S. negotiators are moving closer to an agreement despite sharp rhetoric and diplomatic spats over Xinjiang and Hong Kong. U.S. negotiators expect a phase one deal to be completed before the Dec. 15 deadline when new American tariffs on Chinese goods are scheduled to take effect, according to people familiar with the matter.Senior Chinese officials will meet in coming days to set economic policy for next year, including the growth target and plans for monetary and fiscal settings.The soft rebound in imports shows the weakness of the domestic economy. The government has brought forward the sale of some debt so it can start spending the money as early as possible next year, but People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang indicated that the nation’s monetary policy will continue to refrain from large-scale easing steps.Get More“If a phase one trade deal is struck and there is no further escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions, the drag on China’s exports from higher U.S. tariffs will likely ease through 2020. Domestic business and consumer sentiment will also improve slightly, supporting investment and consumption, although trade-related uncertainty will likely remain elevated in the short term,” Sylvia Sheng, global multi-asset strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in Hong Kong, wrote in a recent note.(Updates with deck headlines, economist’s comment, data on bilateral China-U.S. trade)\--With assistance from Tomoko Sato.To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Miao Han in Beijing at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeffrey Black at firstname.lastname@example.org, James Mayger, Keith GosmanFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
Germany’s sprawling industrial sector is suffering its steepest downturn for a decade, underlining how the engine of the eurozone’s biggest economy is sputtering. Industrial output, which includes Germany’s dominant factory sector, dropped 5.3 per cent in October from the same month in 2018, according to the Federal Statistics Office. showing industrial orders fell sharply in October, and with most manufacturers expecting a further shrinkage in November, the figures suggest that the two-year downturn in German manufacturing is nowhere near close to ending.
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Jean Pierre Mustier’s new four-year plan for Italy’s UniCredit SpA marks a victorious milestone for the chief executive officer. He’s managed to turn a sprawling European bank laden with bad loans into a simpler entity that promises to improve its returns to shareholders. It leaves him well-placed to plot his biggest move yet (should he so choose): cross-border M&A.The Italian bank has cut costs, sold non-core units and eliminated a bad-debt mountain. While he’s forfeited growth by exiting businesses in Poland and Italian online lending, Mustier has improved profitability. The group return on tangible equity is targeted to exceed 9% this year, up from just 4% in 2015.He’s convinced regulators that the bank doesn’t need as much capital and he’ll seek their approval for the company’s first share buyback since 2004. The 27.8 billion-euro ($31 billion) lender plans to return 8 billion euros ($8.9 billion) to investors in dividends and stock purchases through 2023, giving an implied yield of as much as 7%. That compares with a 6% average for the sector, according to UBS Group AG analysts.All this good work is just as well. While the Frenchman has made UniCredit a more stable, cross-border commercial lender, it still faces huge challenges. That was plain to see in some of the key targets in his “Team 23” strategic plan unveiled on Tuesday.Under assumptions for interest rates that UniCredit says are more severe than the market’s, it sees ROTE declining again. Under this scenario, the measure will be no higher than 8% through 2022, while the bank’s revenue will increase by a meager 0.8% on average annually during the four-year plan. That’s below analyst estimates. Mustier won’t be able to do much more on costs, either; they’ll remain little changed throughout the plan’s duration.Crucially, eking out that modest growth in revenue will depend on UniCredit expanding loans to Europe’s small and medium-sized businesses and consumers at a pace that exceeds GDP expansion.There are some more levers Mustier can pull. UniCredit plans to set up an Italian holding company for foreign assets that could lower its capital needs. It still owns 32% of the Turkish bank Yapi ve Kredi Bankasi, a stake that could be sold.But Mustier’s vision for a “pan-European winner” (his words) may require more radical thought. For the moment, he’s adamant there will be “no M&A,” pointing to smaller, bolt-on purchases. Valuations are a stumbling block to large deals. With UniCredit’s shares trading well below its book value, it makes more sense to pursue buybacks — as Mustier says.Nonetheless, the bank’s smaller, nimbler form positions it for a cross-border deal should the European Union ever complete its banking union. Germany’s Commerzbank AG is often mooted as a partner. If UniCredit’s share price ticks up in the meantime, that would certainly help.To contact the author of this story: Elisa Martinuzzi at email@example.comTo contact the editor responsible for this story: James Boxell at firstname.lastname@example.orgThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Elisa Martinuzzi is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering finance. She is a former managing editor for European finance at Bloomberg News.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
Commerzbank managers are keeping employees in the dark about the German lender's overhaul plans, a union representative said on Wednesday. The state-backed bank earlier this year announced plans to restructure after a failed merger attempt with Deutsche Bank .
, spelt out his plans for the new parliament last week, he repeated a message that has been one of the hallmarks of his Law and Justice party’s economic policy: “[People say] that capital does not have a nationality,” he told MPs.
(Bloomberg) -- Oil rose on signs of progress in trade talks between the U.S. and China.Futures were little changed in New York after settling 0.7% higher Tuesday. Washington and Beijing “reached consensus on properly resolving relevant issues” to pursue a “phase one” trade deal during a phone call on Tuesday, China’s Ministry of Commerce said. The American Petroleum Institute reported that U.S. stockpiles at a key hub fell 516,000 barrels last week, according to people familiar.“The general sense is that the economy is doing good,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. “There is a little bit of movement toward the U.S.-China trade deal, but the market is reflecting the strength we see in stocks and overall optimism.”Crude has been rising since early October on the thaw in trade hostilities between the world’s two largest economies, although investors are becoming increasingly fatigued over how long the negotiations are taking. Traders are also concerned that OPEC and its allies seem unwilling to cut production further when they meet next week, despite signs of a renewed surplus in early 2020.“The optimism that the trade conflict will at least ease somewhat is currently preventing prices from falling,” said Carsten Fritsch, an analyst with Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt.West Texas Intermediate for January delivery traded at $58.28 at 4:42pm after rising 40 cents to settle at $58.41 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.Brent for January settlement climbed 62 cents to end the session at $64.27 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe Exchange. The global benchmark traded at a $5.86 premium to WTI.The industry-funded API also reported that US. crude supplies rose by 3.64 million barrels. Meanwhile gasoline inventories grew 4.38 million barrels and distillate inventories fell by 665,000 barrels.Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg said nationwide inventories probably fell by 878,000 barrels. That would still be near the highest level since July as the country’s oil output keeps rising.“Optimism linked to the U.S. Chinese trade discussions, the likely extension of OPEC+ agreement and increased utilization rates should provide support to crude structure,” said Tom Finlon, director of Energy Analytics Group Ltd in Wellington, Florida.To contact the reporter on this story: Jacquelyn Melinek in New York at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: David Marino at firstname.lastname@example.org, Mike Jeffers, Catherine TraywickFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
Announcement of Periodic Review: Moody's announces completion of a periodic review of ratings of mBank S.A. Madrid, November 22, 2019 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has completed a periodic review of the ratings of mBank S.A. and other ratings that are associated with the same analytical unit. The review was conducted through a portfolio review in which Moody's reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the relevant principal methodology(ies), recent developments, and a comparison of the financial and operating profile to similarly rated peers.
(Bloomberg) -- Oil jumps the most since the first of the month as American crude stockpiles at a key storage hub shrank by the most since August.Futures rose 3.4% in New York, the biggest gain since Nov. 1. The Energy Information Administration reported that crude supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, declined by 2.3 million barrels, the biggest draw in three months. Nationwide crude inventories rose 1.38 million barrels, less than reported by the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday.There is some unrest in the market that could be supporting prices, said Ashley Petersen, oil market analyst at Stratas Advisors LLC. “But that doesn’t change the fundamental picture that was bringing down prices over the past two weeks, concerns about future demand and supply,” she said. “So that makes the question: ‘How long can this rally last?’”Although nationwide crude stockpiles rose, the size of the build was smaller than the volume of crude released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Combined crude and products inventories fell by 6.93 million barrels.“The Cushing draw is pushing WTI prices higher for sure,” said Matt Sallee, portfolio manager at Tortoise, a Kansas firm that oversees more than $21 billion in assets. “We’ve seen some interruption from the Canadian supply, but it’s hard to say in any given week, but I think that’s what’s supporting WTI prices.”West Texas Intermediate for December delivery, which expires Wednesday, rose $1.90 to settle at $57.11 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The more-active January contract increased $1.66 to end the session at $57.01.Brent for January settlement gained $1.49 to close at $62.40 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe Exchange. The global benchmark crude traded at a $5.39 premium to WTI for the same month.The EIA report also showed gasoline inventories rose 1.76 million barrels while distillate supplies fell 974,000 barrels. Crude production remained strong at a record level of 12.8 million barrels a day for the second week in a row.To contact the reporter on this story: Jacquelyn Melinek in New York at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: David Marino at firstname.lastname@example.org, Catherine Traywick, Mike JeffersFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
Rating Action: Moody's assigns provisional ratings to nine classes of notes to be issued by Bosphorus CLO V Designated Activity Company. Global Credit Research- 19 Nov 2019. Frankfurt am Main, November ...
U.S. private equity meets German-style corporate governance, and frictions occur. There should be little surprise there, in a country whose staid business culture never seemed to provide a fertile ground for the creativity of U.S. financial capitalism. According to the Financial Times, distressed assets fund Cerberus Capital Management is pushing for the ousting of the chairman of Deutsche Bank, Germany’s largest bank, which has indeed seemed under serious stress for the best part of the last decade.
European stocks rose on Thursday for a fifth straight session, getting a boost from a report about the U.S. and China agreeing on how they would remove tariffs.
Commerzbank AG on Thursday said its 2019 profit would be lower than last year, partly due to the impact of euro zone monetary policy that has pressured margins. The state-backed bank, which is restructuring after a failed merger attempt with Deutsche Bank , also cited trade conflicts and expectations for a higher tax rate in the fourth quarter for the profit downgrade. "We deliberately set long-term success above short-term return targets," Chief Executive Officer Martin Zielke said.
(Bloomberg) -- A Commerzbank AG analyst has gone to great lengths to prove that Apple Inc.’s latest AirPods Pro earbuds are powered by batteries made by German manufacturer Varta AG.Stephan Klepp visited his local Apple store and bought a pair of the $249 earphones, before dismantling them to find a Varta lithium-ion micro-battery inside, he wrote in a note.“Overall, our tear-down puts the speculation around Apple ultimately to rest,” Klepp said in his report, which included pictures of the dissected device and its power source.Varta and Apple declined to comment.Varta shares have risen to the highest since being re-listed in 2017 on speculation that Apple, the market leader for wireless earbud headphones, may be behind numerous capacity increases announced by the German manufacturer. To date, neither company has confirmed the relationship.Klepp has a buy recommendation on Varta, whose shares rose 1.8% in late Frankfurt trading, extending gains after soaring more than 7% in each of the previous two sessions.To contact the reporter on this story: Richard Weiss in Frankfurt at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Daniel Schaefer at firstname.lastname@example.org, Paul JarvisFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Some good news for the European Central Bank. The German government has nominated Isabel Schnabel, an accomplished economist at the University of Bonn, to replace her compatriot Sabine Lautenschlaeger on the ECB’s executive board. Lautenschlaeger is quitting after the central bank’s decision to restart large-scale bond purchases (known as quantitative easing).It’s an anachronism that Germany, France and Italy always get to choose one of the top positions at the ECB. But if this appointment must be made by Berlin, Schnabel is a fine choice.Read More: ECB Gets Chance for German Reset With Lagarde-Schnabel Dual ActThe ECB’s senior team has three big problems: its increasingly bitter divisions over QE, a shortage of trained economists in the top jobs and a lack of female leaders. Hiring Schnabel would address each of these issues. Her pragmatism and ability to see both sides of the monetary argument would ease some of the tension that’s taken hold after several members of the ECB’s governing council — which includes the central bank chiefs of all euro zone members — voted against the decision by departing president Mario Draghi to restart asset purchases.The relationship between the ECB and Germany is especially fraught. Jens Weidmann, president of the Bundesbank, has opposed many of Draghi’s boldest policy moves, including his 2012 pledge to do “whatever it takes” to preserve the euro. Immediately after last month’s announcement on new bond-buying, Weidmann distanced himself from the decision. Lautenschlaeger resigned weeks afterwards, having also voiced her dissent.Schnabel is a hawk too, with her own doubts about the need for more QE. She’s an advocate of stringent bank supervision, supporting the “bail-in” mechanism that forces losses on bondholders when lenders fail. She opposed the proposed merger of Germany’s Deutsche Bank AG and Commerzbank AG because the resulting bank would have been too big to fail. Yet she has defended the ECB in Germany. In September Schnabel tweeted that her country “shouldn’t use the ECB as a scapegoat,” comparing it to how the U.K. berated the EU before the Brexit referendum.She also believes Draghi’s “whatever it takes” policy, which promises to support any euro area country in trouble, is crucial. One can expect her to fight for tighter monetary policy, but in a consensus-building manner. She could be a powerful ally to Christine Lagarde, who replaces Draghi at the end of October, especially if she managed to convince a skeptical German public that the ECB was following the right course. Schnabel’s recruitment would also help restore the depleted ranks of trained economists among the ECB leadership. Lagarde has had a distinguished career as France’s finance minister and the International Monetary Fund’s managing director, but she’s not an economist. Luis de Guindos, her deputy, has spent much of his recent professional life as a banker and politician.The ECB will have lost three first-rate economic thinkers by the end of this year, including Benoit Coeure (a member of the executive board), Peter Praet (the central bank’s former chief economist) and Draghi himself. The appointment of two seasoned economists, Philip Lane to replace Praet and Italy’s Fabio Panetta to the executive board, isn’t enough.Finally, the ECB needs more women in senior posts. The European Parliament has often scolded the Frankfurt institution for its lack of gender balance. Unless Lautenschlaeger’s replacement is a woman too, Lagarde will be the lone female in the top ranks. Other recent appointments to the executive board were made without putting any women on the candidate lists.Schnabel is eminently well-qualified. She has written extensively on banks and the financial system, has been a member of the German Council of Economic Experts and has advised the Bundesbank and Germany’s bank regulator BaFin. In 2018 she was part of a group of German and French economists that put together a thoughtful proposal to reform the euro zone. It’s a reassuring sign that Berlin has put forward her name. This might be an attempt to de-escalate the conflict with the central bank at a time of transition and vulnerability in Europe. It may even let Germany increase its influence. Joerg Asmussen, Lautenschlaeger’s predecessor on the ECB board, supported many Draghi policies and played a key role until his resignation in 2013. Schnabel would hope to do similar. To contact the author of this story: Ferdinando Giugliano at email@example.comTo contact the editor responsible for this story: James Boxell at firstname.lastname@example.orgThis column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Ferdinando Giugliano writes columns on European economics for Bloomberg Opinion. He is also an economics columnist for La Repubblica and was a member of the editorial board of the Financial Times.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion©2019 Bloomberg L.P.