|Day's Range||1.175 - 1.181|
|52 Week Range||1.0348 - 1.2093|
The EUR/USD pair tried to rally during most of the week, but rolled over to form a shooting star. Because of this, I think we are going to drop from here.
The EUR/USD pair initially tried to rally during the trading session on Friday, but turned around at the 1.18 level to fall back towards the 1.1760 level.
European Union leaders on Friday set the completion of a banking union and expansion of the role of the euro zone bailout fund as priorities for euro zone integration, putting off contentious issues such as a budget for the currency area. "In the next six months, the work of our finance ministers should concentrate on areas where the convergence of views is the biggest," summit chairman Donald Tusk told reporters after a summit of the 27 countries that will remain in the EU after Britain leaves in 2019. "Progressing step-by-step on ... the completion of the banking union and the transformation of the ESM into the so-called European Monetary Fund should significantly strengthen the resilience of the Economic and Monetary Union," he said.
Based on the current price at 1.1799 and the earlier price action, the direction of the EUR/USD is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 1.1789.
The euro zone does not need a special budget to help deal with crises, but rather 19 healthy national budgets that can withstand economic shocks, Dutch Prime Ministers Mark Rutte will tell his fellow European Union leaders on Friday. French President Emmanuel Macron has called for a special euro zone budget of several hundred billion euros to pay for various joint projects, while the euro zone bailout fund has advocated setting up a fund of up to 200 billion euros ($236 billion) to soften crises that hit one or a handful of euro zone countries. A new, centralised pool of money for the euro zone is one of the key ideas for deeper euro zone integration that EU leaders are discussing with a view to take decisions in June 2018.
The Euro was quite volatile during the yesterday’s session as it was expecting a rate hike and future growth outlook announcement from the ECB. The Central Bank didn’t go ahead with the rate hike but raised the outlook for future growth. The pair initially went higher during the yesterday’s session but after the Bank of England announcement on monetary policy, the market went lower.
Euro/Dollar sees consistent results across the table, as it has exactly 5 neutral studies in the short, mid and long-term, and they indeed are in line with the less than 8% long interbank. The Cable also has neutral signals prevailing in all three time ranges, with 6 neutral studies in the short-term, 5 in the mid-term and 5 in the long-term, and the technicals are supported by the less than 2% short interbank. The 24-hour scale turns neutral with 6 studies, but, in contrast, the interbank is bullish at more than 22% long.
U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in November, helped by a brisk start to the holiday shopping season. Investors read this as a sign of sustained strength in the economy.
The EUR/USD pair had a volatile session during the trading session on Thursday, as the ECB had an interest rate announcement, causing a lot of noise in the market. However, it’s likely that we continue to see support just below.
With the economic calendar on the lighter side, the Dollar and the Pound will be in focus as talk of tax reforms continues to jostle the Dollar, while the EU is expected to announce a move on to the next phase of Brexit negotiations, which should be Sterling positive.
The EURUSD pair weakened slightly on a dovish ECB which raised growth forecasts but continued the QE at current levels till September 2018
Based on the early trade, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session will be determined by trader reaction to the major 50% level at 1.1823.
FOMC caused USD to weaken. The outcome of that is a buy signal on the EURUSD. This optimism is additionally supported by the double bottom formation, wedge pattern and a false breakout below the 1.173 support. What is more, we broke the 1.181 resistance and we are currently using that as a support. Buy signal at its finest.
The Federal Reserve increased their interest rate by a quarter of a point on Wednesday. The Bank of England and European Central Bank will release monetary policy statements today. The U.S Dollar has been weaker in forex. Retail Sales will come from the States and Britain today.
The Federal Reserve surprised no one when they hiked their interest rate by a quarter of point yesterday. The Pound and Euro responded with gains. The Bank of England and European Central Bank will release their monetary statement today.
The market yesterday was bit volatile as it tried to build some support area around the region ahead of the crucial Fed rate hike policy decision. Now, the Fed has hiked the interest rate by 25 basis points and is more hawkish on the future rate hike, the market is expected fall lower towards the 1.17 level. The market was very noisy ahead of the Fed rate hike policy decision in Wednesday’s session, as it rallied towards the 1.34 level with a support of 1.33 level.
Marius Gero Daheim, chief strategist for the euro zone at SEB, discusses his expectations for the European Central Bank's latest policy meeting.
David Bloom, HSBC's global head of FX strategy, and Reinhard Cluse, chief economist for Europe at UBS, discuss the U.K. economy.