|Day's Range||0.691 - 0.694|
|52 Week Range||0.6792 - 0.7559|
On Friday North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said he was still open to talks after the White House said in a statement that it would be "inappropriate" to have a planned summit at this time. Trump and Kim Jong Un were set to meet in Singapore on June 12 to discuss possible denuclearization. Durable goods in the U.S. fell 1.7% in April, compared to expectations of a 1.4% decrease while a separate report showed that the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index was revised down to 98.0 from 98.8.
The greenback was flat on Friday while the pound inched down as investors looked ahead to testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. Both Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and BOE Governor Mark Carney are expected to participate in a panel discussion of "Financial Stability and Central Bank Transparency" at the "Sveriges Riskbank Conference: 350 Years of Central Banking - The Past, The Present and The Future" in Stockholm, Sweden at 9:20 AM ET (13:20 GMT). The dollar was also held back by Fed meeting notes on Wednesday that suggested that while another interest rate hike is warranted, the central bank would accept inflation rising above its target rate for a while.
The Thursday session was a rather quiet in general, and the New Zealand dollar of course wasn’t going to be any different. We initially fell, but then turned around to recapture many of the losses.
The greenback remained lower on Thursday after an unexpected dovish-tone in the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes and news that the White House had called off a planned summit with North Korea. The White House said in a statement that it would be "inappropriate" to have a planned summit at this time. Trump and North Korea leader Kim Jong Un were set to meet in Singapore on June 12 to discuss possible denuclearization.
Investing.com - Sterling was higher on Thursday after UK retail sales came in higher than expected, boosting confidence in the economy.UK retail sales rose 1.6% in April, compared to expectations for a 0.1% gain, the Office for National Statistics reported. The unexpected increase indicates consumer confidence in the UK economy, despite political uncertainty surrounding Brexit.GBP/USD surged 0.46% to a one-day high of 1.3410 as of 4:43 AM ET (8:43 GMT).The euro was also higher, but was held back by economic and political worries in Europe. ...
The Fed’s soft tone in its minutes could continue to underpin the AUD/USD and NZD/USD on Thursday. The minutes sent a clear message to investors that the Fed won’t be too aggressive on any uptick in inflation beyond the 2 percent level. This essentially means that the Fed will stick with its plan for at least two more times in 2018 and its strategy of raising interest rates gradually.
The FOMC minutes may have eased demand for the Dollar, but with UK retail sales figures, Carney and the ECB’s monetary policy minutes in focus today, it could all swing back in the Dollar’s favor.
The Kiwi dollar was very noisy during trading on Wednesday, as we continue to dance around the 0.69 level. This is an area that is relevant to the market in the short term, but I do think that we have bigger fish to fry.
The greenback rose to a five month high on Wednesday, as investors look ahead to the latest meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve. Investors will be looking to the Fed meeting minutes at 2:00 PM ET (18:00 GMT) closely for any signs of tightening monetary policy. A recent increase in bond yields, along with positive economic data and rising inflation, has boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates and tighten monetary policy.
The New Zealand dollar initially trying to rally during the day on Tuesday but found the 0.6975 level to be too resistive. However, I would be remiss if I didn’t point out that we had recently broken above an ascending triangle, which measured for a move to the 0.70 level. While we haven’t gotten there, I think this simply shows that people are willing to sell any rally that occurs.
In the U.S., the focus will be on the Fed Meeting Minutes, due to be released at 1800 GMT, but prior to that, investors will get the opportunity to react to the latest data on Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI and New Home Sales.
A quiet day on the economic data front leaves the markets to consider what lies ahead, while BoE Governor Carney could catch the markets napping this morning should he deliver a surprise on the policy front.
The New Zealand dollar shows signs of strength again, as Monday was very bullish. We reached towards the 0.6930 level, an area that now looks as if it is trying to define the top of an ascending triangle. While I do think that this market continues to struggle longer term, it looks as if we are ready for a bit of a bounce.
The news about trade will likely start to fade as we approach the release of the Fed minutes on Wednesday. The minutes could determine the next major move in the Aussie and Kiwi as they are expected to reveal the Fed’s inflation outlook. Higher inflation could mean faster interest rate hikes and a stronger U.S. Dollar.
The commodity-linked Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie were underpinned on Monday after President Trump’s top Treasury official said the trade war with China is “on hold,” a truce that removed a big risk from the market for now.
The Dollar’s on the move early, with weekend updates on trade talks with China supporting risk appetite through the early part of the morning. A lack of stats through the day will keep focus on the FED and the Oval Office.
Both the Australian and New Zealand Dollars were pressured by an easing of tensions over a possible trade war between the United States and China. This event supported the U.S. Dollar.
Another busy week ahead, with a mass of economic data scheduled for release, FOMC member chatter and central bank policy meeting minutes there to consider, while Iran, Italy and Trade will also need to be factored in.
The New Zealand dollar fell during the week, breaking below the 0.69 level. The market looks likely to continue to struggle a bit, but we are approaching a major support level, which of course could cost a lot of noise.
The New Zealand dollar has bounced a bit during the session on Friday and has made a “higher low” on the one-hour chart. Ultimately, this is a market that is testing significant support just underneath, so I think that although it’s very negative looking on longer-term charts, we may be trying to find some type of floor.
The New Zealand dollar continues to be negative overall as Thursday was very soft. I think that the market is probably going to look towards the 0.68 level, which is a longer-term floor in the market. This is a very negative turn of events, and I believe there will be a huge battle there.
Japanese inflation softer again, with economic data on the lighter side leaving the markets to focus FOMC member commentary and any noise from the Oval Office on trade talks through the week.
Investing.com - The dollar was hovering near its highest levels in five months against a basket of the other major currencies on Thursday as rising U.S. government bond yields continued to underpin demand for the currency.
Investing.com - The dollar was holding steady near five month highs against a currency basket on Thursday supported by rising U.S. government bond yields, while the euro remained below the 1.18 level amid concerns over political developments in Italy.
The New Zealand dollar rallied a bit during the day on Wednesday, reaching just a bit above the vital 0.69 handle, an area that has been support recently. However, as we continue the day it looks as if we could find sellers rather soon.