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Royal Caribbean Group (RCL)

NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
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66.09+1.50 (+2.32%)
At close: 4:03PM EDT

65.70 -0.39 (-0.59%)
Before hours: 8:43AM EDT

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  • e
    evko
    The indications that the no sail order will be lifted are multiplying by the hour. It think that we can take this for granted. Things appear to be better for the TUI ship in Greece: 6 members that tested positive have now tested negative. However I can't imagine these being pleasant times for the ship passengers. We will see what kind of a pop RCL will have.
  • J
    JustPlay
    Still waiting on the CDC news. With cases rising and the Italian cruise line having outbreak I am thinking more than likely it gets extended. Waiting to see... Still have 25 PUTS. But short scalp on the open made a few bucks.
    Bearish
  • g
    games
    @JustPlay thinks the cruise ban gets extended given the latest, but not only, outbreak on a cruise ship. Frankly, the public doesn't see how it CAN'T get extended when all the protocols have not even been reviewed, commented upon, and approved yet. We've also got more than 40k new cases/day, so there's that. It's 2020 though so feel free to think crazy.
  • T
    TTTT
    A disappointing summer season for Greece during the COVID-19 pandemic got worse when 12 cases were discovered on a Malta-flagged cruise ship that had to return to Crete while heading to the island of Milos when the virus was detected in the crew - Th
    A disappointing summer season for Greece during the COVID-19 pandemic got worse when 12 cases were discovered on a Malta-flagged cruise ship that had to return to Crete while heading to the island of Milos when the virus was detected in the crew - Th
    www.thenationalherald.com
  • L
    Logan
    Cash on hand $4.1B
    Q3 loss $1.5B
    Q4 loss $1.5B (slow season even if cruises resumed)

    Q1 2021 loss $600M (conservative estimate)

    Cash Left $500M

    Need to raise another $1B minimum to be safe

    Total Debt $20B

    Impossible to service.
  • J
    Johnny
    2 Analysts on CNBC:
    1. Valuation should be based on 2024 2. Liquidity issues 3. Company will be squeezed 4. High Risk
    5. Potential recovery 2023 6. CDC will extend the travel ban 7. Risk of raising additional capital
  • J
    JustPlay
    Okay who actually read the Barclays upgrade? It really has no substance banking on the CDC no sail being lifted but then she says doesn’t expect it to be. Can’t believe people are buying on that. If hits $65 I am adding back to my short position.
  • j
    john s
    rapid test has high rate of false negative meaning will tell you the truth 60% of the time, furthermore no one will jump and take this highly politicized fast tracked , corner cut vaccine. would you take it ? people mind set has changed cruises are not what they were , look at 75 pages of how they have to resume cruising so logically if you are long you are not an investor but a gambler because there is not one positive point about these cruise stocks.
  • M
    Maksim
    To be honest, this stock is overvalued also due to the action they made like discounts on the cruises in 2021. Standard and poors valued their bonds like b+ negative, the’ve made a loss that they wont recover even if they return to the time before pandemic began overall two years. What we’ve got? Increased debt, decreased net income and delayed cruises untill 2021. Are you still sure that they’ll be profitable in the foreseeable future? I’m not. Short.
    Bearish
  • A
    Al
    Barclays downgraded this thing a ew months ago around 50 with a very bearish stance and now some 10 points higher they reverse that call?
    By the way the downgrade call turned out to be flat out wrong and I wouldn't be surprised if she is wrong yet again with this upgrade..
  • D
    Dr. Todd
    CDC will issue a travel ban order on all cruise lines for 2021. No cruising till mid 2022.
    Stay safe and stay well
  • g
    games
    I'm not sure the cruise ship ban can be lifted this week simply because the CDC hasn't even responded to the proposed protocols yet. I know it's 2020 and all, and things run weird, but the protocols need to be reviewed, discussed, negotiated and finally approved before cruise ships are free to sail in the USA. Here's the CEO of RCL talking about the subject: “Our hope, of course, is that the panel’s recommendations will be reviewed and accepted by the CDC...” and here's the link - https://thepointsguy.com/news/royal-caribbean-cruise-comeback-plans/
  • J
    JustPlay
    They are just trying to keep the valuation up. Suspect - they release an upgrade when it falls below a support level with cases surging. It will pull back mid day. With the overall market.
  • e
    evko
    There is so much pressure right now that I don't see how the CDC can possibly extend the no sail order. They are humans and they are known to cave into popular demand. If they wanted to give an extension they would have done it by last week. Let's see if I am wrong but I think that the writing is on the wall. What will happen after that, is anybody's guess. Note that in the post below me, Fred starts with the "negative outlook" but if you read the whole thing, you will see that the target has been actually raised. Look at what happened to this stock during the 2009 crash. I don't think that anything close to that will transpire but it would be imprudent to think that the market will be totally oblivious of the fact that cruising will have many headwinds as they reopen - let alone the crippling possibility of an outbreak. However, for the market to digest all this, I think that two or three cycles of earnings will be needed. Finally, I don't think that the cruise lines are in full disclosure of their actual financial situation. In the last earnings call, RCL was at best misleading about their prospects but Wall Street did not hesitate to swallow it like a pill. Certainly, the situation is much more convoluted than Barclays or Cramer's newly NCLH enthusiasm want us to to believe.
  • D
    Daniel
    It's funny how they Upgraded and pumped it and sold over 5m shares only in 3 shots worth of $300,000,000 today. Just at the opening and the last second of the closing!!!! When things are getting worse and people will be struggling for basic needs soon.
  • A
    Al
    Question to the board: who is going on a cruise wearing a mask next year?
  • g
    games
    Many of you may be shocked to hear this, but any lifting of the cruise ban won't change the cash burn and bankruptcy timing. It really won't. Just look at business and vacation travel on airlines which remains at 30% of what it used to be. Whether allowed to operate, or not, it's still MASSIVE cash burn and layoffs for these companies. Reality Check: Not only are the airlines at 30% but even the few working cruise ships in Europe right now are at 55%...and that's only because there are so few to sail on. This business is toast until a vaccine.
    Bearish
  • J
    Jenna
    RCL CEO Richard Fain: "And if they don't want to wear a mask, then they shouldn't come on the cruise". Done. All cruises cancelled. I've been "Loyal to Royal" and in their Crown & Anchor Society program for many years. If the cruise industry is not ready for cruisers to fully enjoy the experience and get good value for their vacation dollars, then cruise lines are not ready to start up yet. Maybe after a vaccine in widely available mid to late 2021.
  • e
    evko
    New case of infections on a cruise ship in the Mediterranean. The company was following all the new protocols. The article that follows is about the company and its restart. CDC may lift the order and investors/analysts can rejoice all they want. That does not make cruises safe.

    https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/first-large-cruise-ship-resumes-service-in-greece
  • F
    Fred
    Negative Outlook on RCL by CFRA! RCL must raise additional cash, $250 million cash burn per month. (Share Dilution in the horizon)
    CFRA KEEPS HOLD OPINION ON SHARES OF ROYAL CARIBBEAN GROUP
    4:32 pm ET September 25, 2020 (CFRA) Print
    We raise our 12-month target price by $10 to $70 on '21 EV/Revenues of 5.4x, relatively ample vs. peers. We widen '20 and '21 loss per share estimates by $2.31 and $5.27 to $16.70 and $7.35. With the current "No Sail Order" by the U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention set to expire on September 30, we see a 50-50 chance of yet another extension. This is against a backdrop of the surge in Covid-19 cases, while the CDC mulls new health and safety protocols for the industry (with a pending request for public comments). While a potential lifting of the "No Sail Order" could bode well for near-term visibility and some pent-up demand for global cruise travel, we still see a likely arduous recovery path that could stretch well into 2021 (and potentially thereafter). Also, given RCL's projected monthly cash burn of $250 million to $290 million amid the Covid-19 disruption, we see some near-term liquidity pressures, despite $4.1 billion in cash after RCL's recent suspension of its dividend and share buybacks.
    Bearish