SHOP - Shopify Inc.

NYSE - NYSE Delayed Price. Currency in USD
385.57
+13.52 (+3.63%)
At close: 4:02PM EST
Stock chart is not supported by your current browser
Previous Close372.05
Open370.45
Bid385.40 x 1000
Ask385.88 x 1100
Day's Range370.45 - 392.00
52 Week Range117.64 - 409.61
Volume3233491
Avg. Volume2,456,012
Market Cap45B
Beta (5Y Monthly)1.17
PE Ratio (TTM)N/A
EPS (TTM)-1.15
Earnings DateFeb 10, 2020 - Feb 14, 2020
Forward Dividend & YieldN/A (N/A)
Ex-Dividend DateN/A
1y Target Est361.58
  • Why Now Is a Great Time to Buy Pinterest Stock
    InvestorPlace

    Why Now Is a Great Time to Buy Pinterest Stock

    Shares of Pinterest (NYSE:PINS) have plunged over the past few months, falling from above $30 to below $20, as the company's nascent digital advertising business has slowed too much, too soon. Specifically, last quarter, Pinterest's revenue growth rate, in a highly unusual development, dropped below 50%, while its guidance called for growth to fall below 40% next quarter.Source: Nopparat Khokthong / Shutterstock.com Investors freaked out, inferring from the slowdown that the digital ad market is simply too tough and too competitive for Pinterest to succeed in it. Those investors sold PINS stock in bunches. PINS stock price collapsed, losing about 50% of its value in a matter of three months.But this selloff of Pinterest stock is a golden buying opportunity, and the most likely path forward for PINS stock is a huge rebound in 2020.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsMy rationale is simple. Pinterest had a bad quarter. That's not the norm. It's an outlier. Next year, Pinterest will get back to reporting very good quarters. A streak of really good quarters in 2020 will help propel PINS stock -- which is significantly undervalued at its current levels -- way higher. Indeed, this stock seems positioned to rally back to $30 over the next 12 months.That would be a gain of nearly 70%. That's huge, and it's too much potential to pass up on now. As a result, I think now is the time to buy PINS stock on weakness and wait for a huge 2020 rally. Pinterest Will Bounce BackThe company's fundamentals indicate that PINS stock is due for a huge rebound in 2020 as its growth outlook regains momentum. * These 7 S&P 500 Stocks Will Deliver a Repeat Performance in the Next Decade Pinterest reported bad Q3 results, with its revenue growth meaningfully slowing. That's natural for an early-stage company, especially one whose revenues are growing at a 50%-plus pace.There are always a few quarters here and there that don't meet expectations. Sometimes those bad quarters are a sign of the times and provide a good reason to sell the stock. Other times, those bad quarters are simply minor hiccups and create good buying opportunities.The latter scenario has unfolded for Pinterest. PINS still has a ton of global users (it has over 320 million global users; that's bigger than pretty much everyone besides Facebook (NASDAQ:FB). It's also growing its global user base at a healthy pace, as its year-over-year user growth last quarter came in at 30%. That's the highest among the publicly traded social media companies.And, perhaps most importantly, those users are significantly under-monetized. Pinterest's average revenue per user rate is 90 cents, a fraction of the $6-plus rates of Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) and Facebook.Also of note, ads make perfect sense on Pinterest and should have high click rates because the platform is already a feed of recommended products and services, packaged into pretty visuals. So they're very similar to ads.The core fundamentals of Pinterest's digital ad business remain highly favorable. As a result, last quarter was an outlier, not the norm. The norm is sustained high growth. Thanks to various initiatives, like making Pinterest more "shoppable" through a partnership with Shopify (NYSE:SHOP), Pinterest's high growth should return in 2020. As it does, investors will regain confidence in its growth outlook and PINS stock will bounce back. Pinterest Stock Is UndervaluedPinterest stock could rally tremendously in 2020 because PINS stock is extremely undervalued.Pinterest will close the year with about 340 million monthly active users, up more than 40% from last year. Pinterest should sustain decent user growth in the 5%-10% range, thanks to non-cyclical tailwinds such as a pivot towards artistic digital media products. Realistically, Pinterest should be able to reach about 500 million monthly active users by 2025.Based on management's revenue guidance, PINS' 2019 average revenue per user will be around $3.25. That's up 14% from a year ago. Pinterest should sustain double-digit growth going forward because: 1) Its ARPU rate is well below that of its bigger peers 2) Pinterest is a good website for ads, given its visual-oriented, product-oriented platform, and 3) more and more dollars are shifting into digital ads every day. Assuming Pinterest's ARPU increases at a sustained 15%-20% rate, Pinterest's ARPU could come in around $8.50 by 2025.An $8.50 ARPU on 500 million users would produce revenue potential of $4.25 billion in 2025. During this stretch, its gross margins should climb towards 80%, which is average for the digital ad sector.Finally, its operating spending rate should be driven down towards 50%, which is closer to average for the digital ad sector.Under those assumptions, Pinterest has a realistic and visible opportunity to grow its earnings per share to $2.25 by fiscal 2025. Based on a forward price-earnings multiple of 21,,which is average for technology stocks and a 10% annual discount rate, that equates to a 2020 price target for PINS stock of over $30. The Bottom Line on PINS StockPinterest is a great company that had a bad quarter. As a result, the recent weakness of PINS stock is an opportunity to buy the shares on weakness. In 2020, Pinterest will get back to reporting good quarters, and as it does, its shares will rebound tremendously.As of this writing, Luke Lango was long PINS, FB, and SHOP. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * These 7 S&P 500 Stocks Will Deliver a Repeat Performance in the Next Decade * 7 Tech Stocks to Stuff Your Stocking With * 7 Sinfully Good Casino Stocks That Could Win the Jackpot in 2020 The post Why Now Is a Great Time to Buy Pinterest Stock appeared first on InvestorPlace.

  • 2019 Stock Market Winners: Paycom, Chipotle, Shopify Shared This Common Trait
    Investor's Business Daily

    2019 Stock Market Winners: Paycom, Chipotle, Shopify Shared This Common Trait

    Stock market winners have been plentiful in 2019. Besides big earnings and sales, names like Paycom, Chipotle and Shopify shared this common bond.

  • Here's why Bill.com rocked its NYSE debut and what it means for investors
    American City Business Journals

    Here's why Bill.com rocked its NYSE debut and what it means for investors

    One of the big winners in the Bill.com IPO is San Mateo-based Emergence Capital Partners, whose co-founder Brian Jacobs invested in Bill.com's Series B round in 2007 when it was valued at about $12 million. The company's market cap after Thursday's debut is close to $2.5 billion.

  • Zacks Market Edge Highlights: Shopify, Generac, Ubiquiti, Aptar and Omega
    Zacks

    Zacks Market Edge Highlights: Shopify, Generac, Ubiquiti, Aptar and Omega

    Zacks Market Edge Highlights: Shopify, Generac, Ubiquiti, Aptar and Omega

  • How to Pick Stocks in 2020
    Zacks

    How to Pick Stocks in 2020

    Experts say that stock picking is dead but Sheraz Mian argues that with time and effort it can still be done successfully. Here's some of his secrets.

  • Bloomberg

    Uber Eats Veteran Joins OMERS Venture Capital Team in Europe

    (Bloomberg) -- OMERS Ventures, the venture capital wing of the Canadian pension plan, has hired former Uber Technologies Inc. executive Jambu Palaniappan to become a managing partner in its London office.Palaniappan spent nearly six years at Uber, most recently leading the expansion of Uber Eats in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, according to his LinkedIn page, and recently joined the board of Just Eat Plc. After an intense few years at the Silicon Valley startup, Palaniappan said he moved to London and began mentoring startups as he decided what to do next.The Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System expanded its venture capital operations into Europe this year, setting up a 300 million-euro ($332 million) fund for early stage European technology companies. It’s part of a global expansion strategy for the Toronto-based pension giant and the firm opened a Silicon Valley office earlier in the year.“This isn’t about making rich people richer. This is about helping to build a retirement plan and provide access to venture returns to a larger group of people,” Palaniappan said in an interview. OMERS Ventures was started in 2011 in response to a dearth of startup funding in Canada following the last recession. It’s known for being among the first to invest in a resurgent wave of Canadian tech startups, including Shopify Inc., Hootsuite Inc. and Hopper Inc. The fund has invested more than 76 million euros in Europe so far in companies including WeFox, Resi, FirstVet, and Quorso.Investments in European tech companies are surging, helped by an influx of venture capital from North America and Asia, according to a report from Atomico last month. European tech companies are set to raise a record $34.3 billion in 2019, up from $24.6 billion last year. About $10 billion of that is coming from North America, up 72% from last year.OMERS’s European fund is led by Harry Briggs, who was previously a principal at Balderton Capital and founding partner at BGF Ventures. It also hired Turo Inc. co-founder and former LocalGlobe partner Tara Reeves this year.(Updates with commnets from Palaniappan in fourth paragraph.)To contact the reporter on this story: Amy Thomson in London at athomson6@bloomberg.netTo contact the editor responsible for this story: Giles Turner at gturner35@bloomberg.netFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • 5 Top Stock Trades for Tuesday: CHWY, SFIX, SHOP
    InvestorPlace

    5 Top Stock Trades for Tuesday: CHWY, SFIX, SHOP

    Stocks slipped slightly on Monday as investors work off some of Friday's jobs report rally and as trade-war headlines continue to pop up. Let's look at a few top stock trades as we kick off the week. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow No. 1: Chewy (CHWY)Source: Chart courtesy of StockCharts.comChewy (NYSE:CHWY) is set to report earnings after the close Monday, as are our Top Trades No. 2 and 3.Over the last few trading sessions, CHWY stock has fought hard to break out over downtrend resistance (blue line). To its credit, Chewy stock has done a good job holding up over this mark, although it struggled in Monday's session.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsAfter the company reports after the close, it's vital that the stock doesn't go on to make new lows below $21.68. If it does, it puts $20 -- and possibly the teens -- on the table. Ideally though, CHWY will hold up over the 20-day moving average at $23.57, as well as downtrend resistance. * 7 Overlooked Value Stocks to Buy That Will Shine in 2020 On the upside, let's see if CHWY can clear some of the clutter near current levels. Specifically, let's see if it can clear the 50-day moving average and the $25 level. Above that puts the 78.6% retracement just below $26 on the table. Moving above all of these levels puts the declining 100-day moving average near $28 on the table. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow No. 2: Toll Brothers (TOL)Source: Chart courtesy of StockCharts.comI have routinely highlighted Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) as a relative strength leader. The stock has a pattern of ripping to new highs, consolidating its gains and rallying to new highs again.Can it do it again on earnings?TOL stock is trying to break out over the $41.50 level. See if it can get above and more importantly, stay above this level after its post-earnings reaction. If it can, a breakout maybe in the making.On a decline, see where support comes into play. Can TOL hold its 20-day and 50-day moving averages near $40? How about uptrend support (blue line) near $39.50? Falling below the pattern puts $38.50 on the table. Below that and the 200-day moving average is possible. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow No. 3: Stitch Fix (SFIX)Source: Chart courtesy of StockCharts.comStitch Fix (NASDAQ:SFIX) shares made an impressive move Monday, breaking out over $24. Of course, the whole move could be for naught, depending on the post-earnings reaction.On a pullback, it would be ideal for SFIX stock to hold this $24 breakout level as support. But given SFIX's history of volatility, that's also unlikely. So on the downside, let's see if $22 can hold as support. There it has short-term uptrend support (blue line), as well as the 100-day moving average. Further, its 50-day moving average sits at $22.28. Below this area could put $18 on the table.On the upside, let's see if SFIX can reclaim its 50% retracement near $26.90. Above that puts the 61.8% retracement on the table. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow No. 4: Bluebird bio (BLUE)Source: Chart courtesy of StockCharts.comIt has been a tough run for bluebird bio (NASDAQ:BLUE), as highlighted by Monday's 2.7% decline. In late November, BLUE broke out over downtrend resistance (blue line), but found $85 and the 50-day moving average to be resistance.After Monday's pullback, the backside of that downtrend mark buoyed the share price. For bulls, the setup is now simple.On the downside, prior downtrend resistance and the $72 level have to hold as support. On the upside, bulls need to reclaim $85 and the 50-day moving average. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow No. 5: Shopify (SHOP)Source: Chart courtesy of StockCharts.comShopify (NASDAQ:SHOP) has been getting a lot of attention lately and deservedly so.Again, keep this one as simple as you can. Recent resistance has come into play at $375. Above it opens the door to $400. At the same time, recent support has come into play near $360. Below it puts $340 on the table. Below that and the 50-day moving average will be key.Bret Kenwell is the manager and author of Future Blue Chips and is on Twitter @BretKenwell. As of this writing, Bret Kenwell did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 7 Energy Stocks That Are Still Worth Buying In 2020 * 7 Strong Stocks to Buy That Won Q3 Earnings * 5 Safety Stocks to Buy Without Trade War Exposure The post 5 Top Stock Trades for Tuesday: CHWY, SFIX, SHOP appeared first on InvestorPlace.

  • Stock Market Rally Erases Losses; DocuSign, Shopify, Progyny, RH Soar, Google Founders Exit, OPEC Cuts Deepen: Weekly Review
    Investor's Business Daily

    Stock Market Rally Erases Losses; DocuSign, Shopify, Progyny, RH Soar, Google Founders Exit, OPEC Cuts Deepen: Weekly Review

    The stock market rally started the week with losses, but erased losses by Friday. DocuSign, Shopify and Progyny broke out on news while RH soared. Google founders left management roles.

  • 3 High-Quality Stocks for the Value Investor
    GuruFocus.com

    3 High-Quality Stocks for the Value Investor

    Solid balance sheets provide good foundations for investment Continue reading...

  • Is Trade Scaring You? ETF Strategies for 2019 Holiday Season
    Zacks

    Is Trade Scaring You? ETF Strategies for 2019 Holiday Season

    It is less likely that Santa alone will drive Wall Street this season as trade tensions persist. Overall, these ETF investing trends should stay strong.

  • Roku Stock Simply Needs to Pull Back
    InvestorPlace

    Roku Stock Simply Needs to Pull Back

    For stocks like Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU), growth has beaten valuation almost every time in this market. Whether it's ROKU stock, or Shopify (NYSE:SHOP), or (for the most part) the likes of Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), investors have proven that they will pay almost any price for solid growth.Source: JHVEPhoto / Shutterstock.com And so, for the most part, investors who have worried about valuation have missed out on big gains. In some cases, they've lost a lot of money trying to short growth stocks.In that context, it's too simplistic to argue that a stock is "overvalued" based on a single fundamental metric. That's been true for a name like AMZN, and it's true for ROKU as well.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsAfter all, it's not as if the market is unaware that Roku stock trades at roughly 16 times this year's revenue or that ROKU is unprofitable. In fact, it actually takes more due diligence to understand the bull thesis. That requires long-term modeling and a long-term focus.So I'm sympathetic to the bull case. ROKU has a real opportunity as new streaming services come online. It will be profitable at some point. Anyone who has bet against Roku stock so far has lost; ROKU stock price has nearly quintupled so far this year. * 7 Hot Stocks for 2020's Big Trends Even considering all that, however, I still think the shares are overvalued above $150, and they may be disastrously overvalued. The issue isn't necessarily that ROKU stock is expensive right now, but that the growth priced in by the current valuation may not materialize. The Case for Roku StockIn this market, a 16 revenue multiple doesn't seem that outrageous. Of course, that fact alone might concern investors who see tech, or even the market as a whole, as overvalued at the moment.But at least on a relative basis, ROKU's revenue multiple isn't necessarily out of line. SHOP stock is trading at 28 times this year's revenue, while Okta (NASDAQ:OKTA) has a price-revenue multiple of roughly 27, and Zoom Video Communications' (NASDAQ:ZM) multiple is closer to 40.And Roku's growth story can arguably match that of almost any other stock in the market. Its revenue should grow close to 50% this year, and analysts' average estimates suggest a 40%-plus increase in 2020. Both figures are roughly in line with that of SHOP, whose revenue multiple is substantially higher.From that perspective, the ROKU stock price isn't necessarily outrageous. In fact, it might even be cheap. The ROKU Stock Price is More Expensive Than It LooksBut there are two problems with those comparisons. The first is a point I've admittedly made in the past; not all of Roku's revenue is all that valuable. Its 2019 guidance suggests that roughly one-third of its revenue will come from Roku players. To be blunt, selling players is not a good business for ROKU.Over the past four quarters, gross profit for the player business has totaled only $20.7 million, or just 5.7% of the revenue from players. Over the same period, ROKU as a whole spent $214 million on R&D; a good chunk of that spending no doubt was used to enhance the players.And so it's clear that the player business loses a great deal of money. The player business is a loss leader for advertising and other sales, what Roku calls "platform revenue." So the player business and its revenue shouldn't be assigned much, if any, value. In fact, investors should assume that the player business will continue to lose money.Platform revenue is the important metric. And ROKU stock is valued at roughly 24 times that figure, based on its 2019 guidance. That's an enormous multiple which is more in-line with the market's most expensive stocks. And yet platform gross margins, which were 63% in the third quarter, are lower than those of several other high-growth software names (though, to be fair, they are higher than Shopify's gross margins.)That issue alone doesn't mean ROKU stock has to pull back; even valuing the stock based only on platform revenue, an investor still can make the case that a price above $150 is reasonable, if not likely. And it does seem like the stock has a path to at least fill the gap created on Monday, when the shares plunged after Morgan Stanley downgraded Roku stock.Still, ROKU is one of the most expensive stocks in the market. That alone suggests some very real risk. Are Competitors Coming?The second issue is that Roku has more, and more intense, competition than other stocks with similar valuations. Admittedly, Roku has achieved dominant market share against the likes of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG,NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Amazon.But its role as the primary gateway to streaming services is far from guaranteed. Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) and other telecom companies can and will provide their own streaming boxes to existing internet customers. Amazon has partnered with TV manufacturers to install its Fire TV software; Roku has done the same, but a lack of new agreements with TV makers was one reason for Morgan Stanley's downgrade.So the argument that Roku is the primary play on new streaming services from Disney (NYSE:DIS), AT&T (NYSE:T), and Comcast itself seems too simplistic. Over time, the very need for a player is going to fade away as all screens come embedded with the necessary software. New delivery mechanisms may spring up. Roku isn't necessarily the next TiVo (NASDAQ:TIVO), but any hardware-based business is at risk of being disrupted.This is not to say that ROKU stock should be shorted or that its growth is going to come to a screeching halt in the next couple of years. Rather, Roku stock has one of the highest valuations in the market but has very real risks. That's the point that Morgan Stanley made this week -- and it's probably a good one. ROKU stock price suggests that the company's growth will last for years, and I'm simply not quite sure that will be the case.As of this writing, Vince Martin has no positions in any securities mentioned. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 7 Hot Stocks for 2020's Big Trends * 7 Lumbering Large-Cap Stocks to Avoid * 5 ETFs for Oodles of Monthly Dividends The post Roku Stock Simply Needs to Pull Back appeared first on InvestorPlace.

  • With Merchant Growth Slowing, Shopify Stock Is Priced for Perfection
    InvestorPlace

    With Merchant Growth Slowing, Shopify Stock Is Priced for Perfection

    Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) is rallying again. Shopify stock has gained over 5% in each of the last two sessions and seems as if it might challenge all-time highs above $400 reached in August.Source: Beyond The Scene / Shutterstock.com At this point, the gains in Shopify stock seem almost ridiculous. Shares have more than tripled from their 52-week low. They've risen 170% so far this year. Only three of the 700-plus stocks with a market capitalization over $10 billion -- Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU), Sea Limited (NYSE:SE), and Carvana (NYSE:CVNA) -- have done better.And after those gains, the valuation, too, looks close to ridiculous. Based on guidance, SHOP stock trades at about 28x this year's revenue. More incredibly, it's valued at over 1,000x adjusted operating income. As a result, many investors, myself included, have expected Shopify stock to come back to Earth. It hasn't.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsTo be fair, there is some support for the seeming nosebleed valuation, as I detailed in August. The revenue multiple is enormous, but so is Shopify's margin potential.Shopify's revenue only includes its fees -- not the total value of products and services sold through its platform. So while operating margins for Amazon.com's (NASDAQ:AMZN) retail business top out in the mid-single-digits, at scale Shopify's margins could easily exceed 20% or go even higher. That alone justifies a higher price to revenue multiple. * 7 Retail Stocks to Buy That Dominated Thanksgiving Shopping Meanwhile, earnings multiples are inflated by the fact that margins at the moment are exceedingly low: less than 2% this year, based on guidance. Fundamentally, SHOP stock isn't cheap, but it probably shouldn't be.That doesn't mean Shopify stock is without risk. In fact, coming out of the company's third quarter, there's one key risk that investors should watch closely. It might define how the stock trades from here. The Growth Driving SHOP Stock HigherShopify stock receives among the highest multiples in the market because Shopify offers one of the best growth stories in the market. Revenue grew 59% in 2018, clearing $1 billion for the first time. According to the company's outlook, it should rise another 45% this year.It's thus not surprising that SHOP stock is so dearly valued. That kind of growth at scale is going to get investor attention, and investor dollars. (AMZN stock is an excellent long-term example of that fact.) And so while it looked like SHOP's bubble had burst just a few weeks ago, shares look set to at least challenge this summer's highs.But it's worth considering how Shopify is driving that impressive growth. The answer is through more merchants, not necessarily more sales per merchant, and that might be a problem going forward. Revenue Per Merchant and Shopify StockAccording to its 40-F, Shopify's paid user count increased to 820,000 at the end of 2018 against 609,000 at Dec. 31, 2017, a 34.6% increase. Revenue increased 59% over that period, to $1.073 billion from $673 million the year before.Those two figures suggest that revenue per merchant increased by about 18% in 2018. In Q3, the company trumpeted the milestone of 1 million merchants on the platform, which suggests paid user growth this year should be in the high 20% range (25% growth would get the year-end figure to 1.025 million). With full-year revenue expected to increase by 45%, it seems likely that revenue per merchant will grow in the range of 13% year-over-year, roughly speaking.That seems like good news for Shopify. Not only is the company adding more merchants, but its existing merchants are creating more revenue -- and making more sales. GMV (gross merchandise value), which measures those sales, jumped 48% year-over-year in the third quarter, well above a likely ~30% increase in the number of merchants.But looking closer, it's not clear that Shopify's merchants are doing quite as well as that number suggests. For one, a portion of the per-merchant revenue increase is coming from higher subscription fees.Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR) rose 37% in the third quarter, above the likely merchant growth rate Shopify doesn't break out exact user numbers in quarterly releases). In addition, merchants are using more platform features, whether it's Shopify Capital or Shopify Shipping.The most important factor, however, is that Shopify increasingly is adding larger merchants. Shopify Plus, which costs over $2,000 per month, drove 27% of MRR in Q3 against 24% the year before. It took a higher share of GMV as well, per the Q3 conference call. Bigger merchants unsurprisingly are driving more sales and more GMV. But what does that mean for existing, smaller users? The Same-Store QuestionWhat we don't know is how fast existing users are growing their sales on the Shopify platform. This was one of the points made by Citron Research in its ill-fated short of SHOP stock back in 2017.Citron argued that questionable sales tactics by affiliates were resulting in a significant number of low-quality users. Those users were being attracted by promises of something close to a "get rich scheme". Citron argued that the Federal Trade Commission would be forced to act, Shopify's user growth would decelerate, and Shopify stock would plunge.Obviously, those predictions have been wrong. But the underlying worry has a bit of validity looking at the numbers. We simply don't know how much organic growth -- something like the 'same-store' figures reported by traditional retailers -- Shopify users are generating.But what we can calculate doesn't look all that impressive. Again, revenue per merchant should increase by about 13% this year. MRR growth from higher subscription fees probably is worth a few points. The addition of larger Plus merchants, most of whom are selling products from established businesses, likely drives GMV and so-called "merchant solutions" revenue. So do the ancillary products.Indeed, as even one bullish analyst calculated after Q3 earnings, GMV per merchant has accelerated -- to 8% year-over-year. Some of that growth is coming simply from a higher mix of Plus customers. The average 'core' Shopify small business (or home business) user maybe is growing her sales 5% a year. The figure might be even lower.That growth comes amid a strong economy in the U.S., which drove about 70% of revenue in 2019. It's with a huge tailwind toward eCommerce as a whole. And it's in an environment where small, unique, and local continues to win over large, bland, and corporate. In that context, that growth might not be good enough. The Merchant Risk to Shopify StockIn a presentation earlier this year, Shopify estimated its total addressable market just in small and medium-sized businesses at $70 billion. With revenue at roughly $1.5 billion, there's seemingly a huge runway for years, if not decades, of further impressive growth.The $70 billion figure, according to the company, is based on an estimate of 47 million businesses worldwide. As noted, Shopify has a little over 1 million of those businesses as current customers.But if existing SMB customers are posting minimal growth, it's fair to ask if the opportunity really is that big. Certainly, Shopify's earlier customers are its best customers, with the most motivation to sell online and likely the best ideas. Capturing incremental merchants should get incrementally more difficult going forward.There's also the question of how those businesses will perform in a recession, as I detailed last year. Again, Shopify's merchants at the moment are operating in an exceedingly favorable environment. That will change at some point.That, in turn, creates an issue with SHOP stock at this valuation. Current multiples on both revenue and earnings are pricing in a tremendous amount of growth. But that growth, in turn, remains heavily reliant on attracting new merchants, much more so than better monetizing existing customers. So what happens if merchant growth slows? The Bottom Line on Shopify StockShopify has levers to pull relative to getting more revenue from existing customers, whether raising prices (as platform play Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY) did so successfully ) or adding services like Shopify Fulfillment. Still, this is a valuation that assumes that merchant growth is going to continue at a 20% or 25% rate for several years to come.There's a possibility that it won't. An economic downturn would hit that growth. If existing merchants aren't doing that well, new potential users may not follow.To be sure, SHOP bulls can, and likely do, see it differently. It's that enormous addressable market that underpins the bullish outlook for Shopify as a potentially legitimate rival to Amazon. (It is the "anti-Amazon", as some have noted.) International markets admittedly provide a huge opportunity even if U.S. customer acquisition slows.Still, there's a risk here which highlights the problem with Shopify stock here. It remains priced for perfection. As seen in the 25% slide that began in September, it doesn't even really take much in the way of news for shares to stumble. Any real long-term change in expectations would have a deleterious impact on SHOP's fair value.And those expectations still seem to include a path for the number of merchants to double in the next 4-5 years. It's possible they will; Shopify offers an impressive platform with real value. But if existing merchants aren't doing quite as well as headline numbers suggest, it's at least fair to wonder how many businesses will rush to join them, and for how long.As of this writing, Vince Martin has no positions in any securities mentioned. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 7 Retail Stocks to Buy That Dominated Thanksgiving Shopping * 6 Manufacturing Stocks to Buy as the Economy Recovers * The 7 Best Cryptocurrencies to Buy as Blockchain Heats Up The post With Merchant Growth Slowing, Shopify Stock Is Priced for Perfection appeared first on InvestorPlace.

  • Avoid Buyer’s Remorse by Avoiding Shopify Stocks for the Near Term
    InvestorPlace

    Avoid Buyer’s Remorse by Avoiding Shopify Stocks for the Near Term

    Without a doubt, e-commerce marketplace Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) has been a revelation. After a brilliant performance in 2017 and a respectable one in 2018, Shopify stock is simply on fire this year. Despite a general slowdown in momentum in the second half, shares are still up nearly 169% year-to-date. Still, with so much positivity, it's fair to wonder if this rally is sustainable.Source: Paul McKinnon / Shutterstock.com Based on Shopify's disclosure about its holiday sales, the answer is a resounding "yes." From Black Friday to Cyber Monday, SHOP subscribers generated $2.9 billion in revenue. This represents a massive 61% jump from the year-ago results of $1.8 billion. Not surprisingly, SHOP stock jumped over 6% in the markets on the emphatically bullish disclosure.Aside from the growth implications, Shopify stock now has more credibility. Management has set ambitious goals, planning to spend $1 billion over the next five years to bolster its businesses. Primarily, the company sets up e-commerce platforms for small businesses. It also has partnerships with larger enterprises to handle their online payments and shipping services.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsNevertheless, it's a tough feat to consecutively generate double- or triple-digit returns. Although SHOP stock is levered to one of the most-powerful revolutions in business (e-commerce), competition is fierce. Furthermore, a challenge for Shopify is that it's an entrepreneurial platform.This contrasts with an organization like Square (NYSE:SQ). Featuring applications that are relevant for both small businesses and non-entrepreneurs (e.g., its Cash App), Square's services have broader appeal. But with Shopify, you must have the entrepreneurial bug to make use of the platform. * 7 Stocks to Buy in December Moving forward, I believe this limited scope makes buying Shopify stock now a risky proposition. Declining Growth in Gross Payment VolumeOne helpful metric to determine the popularity of an e-commerce platform is gross payment volume (GPV). This is the total spend that merchants process minus refunds. Ideally, you'd like to see strong growth in this metric as it lends credibility toward expansionary strategies.For Shopify stock, the interval from the fourth quarter of 2016 through third quarter 2017 witnessed the most-robust year-over-year growth in GPV over a one-year period, averaging 90%. However, the rate has declined noticeably since then. For example, in the last four reported quarters, GPV growth averaged 60.3%. Click to Enlarge Source: Chart by Josh Enomoto Is this slowdown by itself enough to warrant panic on SHOP stock? Probably not. However, if I extrapolate the growth rate out to Q4 2020, using growth rate data from Q4 2016 onward, I calculate an average of 40.7% GPV growth over the next five quarters.Implementing some simple math, I come out with a Q4 2020 GPV haul of $11.4 billion. While that sounds like a lot from where we stand, it's not that impressive contextually. Click to Enlarge Source: Chart by Josh Enomoto For instance, Square's GPV in Q3 2019 was $28.2 billion. And it also made money in the quarter, whereas Shopify's net income losses are expanding. Square's forward price-earnings ratio is 70 times, whereas SHOP stock is at a blistering 417 times.In other words, you're paying an extremely high premium for a platform that appears to be peaking. Slowing Revenue Growth a Concern for Shopify StockAnother factor that gives me pause is top-line sales. Looking at Shopify's numbers quarter to quarter is somewhat misleading. For example, in Q3 2019, the company rang up $390.5 million, which is nearly 45% YOY growth.By itself, this figure is very impressive. However, since Q1 2016, the growth rate has declined for 15 straight quarters. I find this odd because, with quarterly sales of $390 million, you should still have the law of small numbers working in your favor. This is especially the case if your ultimate ambition is to challenge Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), which Shopify intends to do. Click to Enlarge Source: Chart by Josh Enomoto Using the above extrapolation method, I forecast average YoY revenue growth over the next five quarters at 35%. That ultimately translates to 2020 revenue of $2.07 billion.If we assume that 2019 revenue hits around $1.6 billion (it's currently tracking for $1.42 billion), this would represent around 29% annual sales growth. It's a respectable number, but it's a far cry from challenging Amazon. * 7 Exciting Biotech Stocks to Buy Now From 2017 to 2018, Shopify revenue jumped 59%. And in the prior-year comparison, sales increased 73%. Thus, the growth rate isn't moving in the right direction. Takeaway on SHOP StockOf course, the immediate counterargument to these forecasts is that they could be well off the mark. And that's a very fair point. However, I'm coming up with my numbers based on available data. What they show consistently is that fundamental momentum is declining. Not good news for SHOP stock investors.Ultimately, though, I'm not here to bash Shopify stock. Rather, I'm cautioning against buying shares at their current market premium. I get the idea that the company provides a fun, intuitive platform for entrepreneurs. However, small businesses fail more often than they succeed.From that perspective, the declining rates in GPV and revenue become even more of a cautionary tale. I like the concept of Shopify stock. I'm just not ready to pay that steep a price.As of this writing, Josh Enomoto did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 7 Retail Stocks to Buy That Dominated Thanksgiving Shopping * 6 Manufacturing Stocks to Buy as the Economy Recovers * The 7 Best Cryptocurrencies to Buy as Blockchain Heats Up The post Avoid Buyera€™s Remorse by Avoiding Shopify Stocks for the Near Term appeared first on InvestorPlace.

  • Shopify Stock Has A New Buy Point After More Than Doubling In 2019 — Is It A Buy?
    Investor's Business Daily

    Shopify Stock Has A New Buy Point After More Than Doubling In 2019 — Is It A Buy?

    Shopify has been a huge winner in 2019. Earnings are booming and the company plans to compete more with Amazon. But with software stocks under recent pressure, is SHOP stock a buy now?

  • Stanley Druckenmiller's Top 4 Buys in the 3rd Quarter
    GuruFocus.com

    Stanley Druckenmiller's Top 4 Buys in the 3rd Quarter

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  • Benzinga

    Meet The New, Shopify-Powered, B2B Online CBD Ordering Platform

    Global Cannabinoids, a bulk and wholesale supplier of U.S. hemp-derived cannabinoids, has officially opened its new online store powered by Shopify Inc (NYSE: SHOP ). B2B customers can now purchase bulk ...

  • Shopify (SHOP) in Focus: Stock Moves 6.1% Higher
    Zacks

    Shopify (SHOP) in Focus: Stock Moves 6.1% Higher

    Shopify (SHOP) saw a big move last session, as its shares jumped more than 6% on the day, amid huge volumes.

  • Hedge Funds Have Never Been This Bullish On Shopify Inc (SHOP)
    Insider Monkey

    Hedge Funds Have Never Been This Bullish On Shopify Inc (SHOP)

    While the market driven by short-term sentiment influenced by the accomodative interest rate environment in the US, increasing oil prices and deteriorating expectations towards the resolution of the trade war with China, many smart money investors kept their cautious approach regarding the current bull run in the third quarter and hedging or reducing many of […]

  • 4 Top Stock Trades for Thursday: CPB, ZS, WDAY, SHOP
    InvestorPlace

    4 Top Stock Trades for Thursday: CPB, ZS, WDAY, SHOP

    All it took was a more relaxed tone on trade to send U.S. equities racing back higher. Here's a look at a few top stock trades as we enter the last few days of the week. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow No. 1: Campbell Soup (CPB)Source: Chart courtesy of StockCharts.comCampbell Soup (NYSE:CPB) shares hit new 52-week highs in Wednesday's session, despite missing on revenue expectations.As you can see in the chart above, CPB has made a routine of putting in higher lows and trending from the lower left to the upper right. Over the last few months, though, $48 has been a tough nut to crack.InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading TipsLet's give CPB stock a day or two and see if it can push above this level. If it can close above $48, it puts $50-plus on the table. Remember, for being a "boring" stock, this name has moved quite well this year. * 9 Stocks That Every 20-Year-Old Should Buy Below $48, and the 20-day and 50-day moving averages are on the table. Below uptrend support (blue line) and CPB may need more time to consolidate. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow No. 2: Zscaler (ZS)Source: Chart courtesy of StockCharts.comZscaler (NASDAQ:ZS) reported a top- and bottom-line earnings beat, and while its full-year guidance was solid, management's Q2 outlook was a bit underwhelming. That hit the stock on Wednesday.Just as CPB has been struggled with $48, ZS stock has been struggling with $53. Unlike Campbell Soup though, Zscaler isn't trading near its 52-week highs.In any regard, it's holding up over the 50-day moving average and uptrend support (blue line). It's a risky long position to take, but so long as ZS is over $46, bulls can stick with it.Over $53 and the declining 100-day moving average is a possible upside target. Below $46, and $40 to $42.50 is possible. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow No. 3: Workday (WDAY)Source: Chart courtesy of StockCharts.comA few days ago, Workday (NASDAQ:WDAY) was rejected from the 100-day moving average at $180. On Tuesday, the stock rallied hard off the 50-day moving average, only to gap below it on Wednesday despite solid earnings.In doing so, WDAY also lost short-term uptrend support (blue line).This one looks lost for direction at the moment. Bulls who want to go long may want to wait for the stock to reclaim the 50-day moving average and take out Wednesday's high.Moving above those marks puts the 100-day moving average back on the table. Below Wednesday's low and sub-$155 is possible. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow No. 4: Shopify (SHOP)Source: Chart courtesy of StockCharts.comWow, has Shopify (NASDAQ:SHOP) come to life or what? On Monday this name looked to be breaking down. Two days later and SHOP is up $65, or 20%, from this week's low.Crazy move aside, how do we trade this thing?If the momentum keeps up, there's not much preventing a move to $400. Bulls would love to see SHOP hold $370 as support, but if the market comes under pressure, we could easily see some air come out of the stock price.Let's see if the 78.6% retracement plays a role on a potential pullback. On a further decline, keep an eye on the 100-day moving average. Zooming out to a longer time horizon, notice how the 50-day moving average went from support to resistance, and back to support again after the last few weeks of action (blue circle). This may be a solid buy-the-dip spot down the road.Bret Kenwell is the manager and author of Future Blue Chips and is on Twitter @BretKenwell. As of this writing, Bret Kenwell did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. More From InvestorPlace * 2 Toxic Pot Stocks You Should Avoid * 9 Tech Stocks You Wish You'd Bought During 2019 * 5 Under-the-Radar Marijuana Stocks With Over 100% Upside * Watch These 5 STARS Stocks as They Change the Future The post 4 Top Stock Trades for Thursday: CPB, ZS, WDAY, SHOP appeared first on InvestorPlace.

  • Shopify Stock Pops As Company Claims Big Jump In Holiday E-Commerce
    Investor's Business Daily

    Shopify Stock Pops As Company Claims Big Jump In Holiday E-Commerce

    Shopify stock popped for the second day in the wake of the company releasing bullish holiday season e-commerce sales data. Shopify stock still trades below an entry point.

  • Bloomberg

    Shopify CEO Plays Video Games on Day Off as Deal Rumors Swirl

    (Bloomberg) -- Shopify CEO Tobias Lutke isn’t letting musings by CNBC’s Jim Cramer distract him from playing video games on his day off from work.Lutke on Wednesday was seen playing Activision Blizzard Inc.’s “Starcraft II” on the Twitch video game streaming platform. And earlier, CNBC’s Cramer said that at least two companies in Silicon Valley with market capitalization’s above $70 billion are interested in acquiring the Canadian e-commerce company. Cramer said he didn’t expect the company would entertain any offers because it wants to remain independent.Investors may be at peace with the CEO spending some time away from the company after Shopify shares gained 159% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P/Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index’s 18% gain. Today alone the stock climbed as much as 7.5% and is up ~21-fold since its May 2015 initial public offering.He wasn’t completely disconnected, however. Lutke responded to questions from fellow gamers as well as some Shopify employees on the Twitch broadcast. About 2,000 people have viewed the Twitch streaming feed today.Lutke didn’t respond to Bloomberg News request for comment on the Twitch platform, while other Shopify representatives didn’t immediately respond to inquiries.\--With assistance from Kamaron Leach and Sebastian Tong.To contact the reporter on this story: Joshua Fineman in New York at jfineman@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Catherine Larkin at clarkin4@bloomberg.net, Scott Schnipper, Brad OlesenFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Postscript raises $4.5M to help Shopify shops stay connected with customers over SMS
    TechCrunch

    Postscript raises $4.5M to help Shopify shops stay connected with customers over SMS

    Back in February, we wrote that Postscript "wants to be the Mailchimp for SMS." Now they've raised $4.5 million to help get it done. This round was led by Accomplice, and backed by Kayak co-founder Paul English, Wufoo co-founder Kevin Hale, Klaviyo co-founder Andrew Bialecki, Drift co-founder Elias Torres, Front co-founder Mathilde Collin and Podium co-founders Eric Rea and Dennis Steele. The Postscript team is currently made up of 14 people.

  • Analyzing The Chart Of This Year's Top Growth Stock: Shopify
    Investor's Business Daily Video

    Analyzing The Chart Of This Year's Top Growth Stock: Shopify

    E-commerce software stock Shopify is one of the biggest growth names of 2019, more than doubling in price. Here's a look at how investors can play Shopify and why this stock could still have more room to run next year.

  • SHOP Leads Software Higher
    Investor's Business Daily Video

    SHOP Leads Software Higher

    Shopify closed just above an area of resistance on Tuesday and followed up with even more gains today. Has the look of a double bottom but the middle of the W was a little lower than we normally see. Still offered a buy point at 349.54. Remarkable that it was up so much Tuesday when most things were down, like Coupa Software rebound mentioned yesterday. It released bullish holiday season e-commerce sales data showing that its merchant customers worldwide saw a 60% increase in sales during Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Shopify sets up e-commerce websites for small businesses. Definetly check out the story by Reinhardt Krause.

  • MARKETS: Nasdaq is 1% down, but don't panic; trading Shopify (SHOP)
    Yahoo Finance Video

    MARKETS: Nasdaq is 1% down, but don't panic; trading Shopify (SHOP)

    Alissa Coram, Multimedia Content Editor at Investor's Business Daily, joins Yahoo Finance's Myles Udland and Jared Blikre at the YFi Interactive touch screen to break down the price action in the Nasdaq Composite and Shopify.